Honestly, if you'd told me back in August that we’d be sitting here in January 2026 with a genuine EPL golden boot race on our hands, I’d have probably laughed. We all know the drill. Erling Haaland shows up, scores a bunch of hat-tricks before the leaf-fall, and everyone else plays for second.
But things feel... different this year.
As of January 17, 2026, Erling Haaland is still sitting at the top of the mountain with 20 goals in 21 appearances. That’s a massive return, but it doesn't tell the whole story. While he’s the "Striking Viking," he’s actually been a bit human lately, netting only once in his last four league games. Meanwhile, the chasing pack isn't just chasing anymore; they’re breathing down his neck.
The Igor Thiago Factor
If you aren't watching Brentford, you're missing out on the biggest story of the season. Igor Thiago has been an absolute revelation. He’s currently sitting on 16 goals, and five of those came from the penalty spot, sure, but his movement is top-tier.
He recently bagged a hat-trick that sent shockwaves through the FPL community and the league itself. He’s basically the primary challenger right now. It’s wild to think a Brentford striker is keeping pace with a Manchester City juggernaut, but Thiago has this knack for being in the right place at exactly the right time. He was the Player of the Month in November for a reason.
Haaland's Form and the "City" Slump
Is it a slump? Probably not. A "slump" for Haaland is still better than a career-high for most strikers. But the data shows he’s slightly underperforming his xG of 18.52—wait, actually, he’s overperforming it by about 1.5 goals, which is standard for him. The real issue is the volume.
City haven’t been the same relentless machine in the last month.
They’ve had some draws—1-1 against Brighton, 0-0 against Sunderland—where Haaland looked isolated. He’s still got that Manchester Derby record, though. He’s scored 8 goals and 3 assists in six derby outings. With a game against United coming up, everyone expects him to explode again. If he doesn't? That four-goal lead over Thiago could vanish in a weekend.
The Chasing Pack: New Names and Old Faces
The leaderboard for the EPL golden boot race looks a bit weird this year. You've got the usual suspects, but also some names that might surprise you:
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- Igor Thiago (Brentford): 16 goals. The main threat.
- Antoine Semenyo (Manchester City): 10 goals. Wait, what? Yeah, he’s been chipping in significantly since his move.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United): 9 goals. Leeds are back in the top flight and DCL is looking like his old self again.
- Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool): 8 goals. He’s settling into Anfield much better than people expected after that chaotic transfer window.
- Danny Welbeck (Brighton): 8 goals. The man is like a fine wine. Honestly.
- Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace): 8 goals. Still a handful for any defender.
It’s kinda crazy to see Mohamed Salah sitting further down with only 4 goals so far this season. He won it last year with 29 goals, but this term, he’s been more of a provider. He’s playing a deeper role, almost like a playmaker, which is great for Liverpool’s title charge but bad for his Golden Boot hopes.
Why Semenyo at City Matters
People didn't expect Antoine Semenyo to be the one flanking Haaland and actually taking shots. He’s got 10 goals. He’s not just a winger; he’s playing like a second striker. This is actually hurting Haaland’s numbers slightly because the goals are being shared.
In previous years, it was "get the ball to Erling." Now, Pep’s got more tools. If Semenyo keeps this up, he’ll finish with 15-18 goals, which is brilliant for him, but it might be the reason Haaland doesn't break the 30-goal mark this time around.
Let's Talk About Hugo Ekitiké
Liverpool’s attack has been a bit of a puzzle. With Salah moving into a creative role and Gakpo rotating, Ekitiké has stepped up. He’s got 5 goals in his last five outings. That’s elite form.
He’s currently valued at £8.9m in Fantasy Premier League, which is basically a steal for a starting Liverpool striker. He’s tall, he’s fast, and he actually tracks back, which Klopp—well, the new Liverpool management—loves. He’s only on 8 goals total, but if his current trajectory continues, he’s a dark horse for the top three.
The "Big Six" Strikers Who Are Missing
Where is Alexander Isak? He was the runner-up last year with 23 goals. This year? He’s struggling. Newcastle have had a bit of a defensive identity crisis, and Isak hasn't had the service. He’s only managed 2 goals so far. It’s a similar story for Ollie Watkins at Villa (7 goals) and Bukayo Saka at Arsenal (4 goals).
The scoring has become much more democratic.
Arsenal, for instance, have their goals spread across the front four. Leandro Trossard and Viktor Gyökeres both have 5 goals. When you don't have a "Main Man" system, winning the Golden Boot is basically impossible. This is why the EPL golden boot race is essentially a two-horse race between Haaland and Thiago, with a massive gap to the rest.
Tactical Shifts Affecting the Race
Football in 2026 is much more about the "box midfield" and inverted fullbacks than it was even two years ago. This means strikers are being asked to do more. Haaland’s "touches in the opposition box" is at 133, which is high, but his "passes attempted" is in the bottom 1 percentile (12.01 per 90).
He’s still a pure finisher.
Compare that to Igor Thiago, who is much more involved in the build-up. Thiago is benefiting from Brentford’s direct style. They get the ball into the box quickly, and he’s there to mop it up. It’s a simpler system, and ironically, it might be more "Golden Boot friendly" than City’s complex "death by a thousand passes" approach.
The Penalty Disparity
You can't talk about the Golden Boot without talking about penalties.
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- Igor Thiago: 5 penalties scored.
- Erling Haaland: 2 penalties scored.
If you take away the spots, it’s 18-11 to Haaland. That’s still a big gap. But penalties count. If Brentford keep winning them, and Thiago keeps tucking them away, he’s going to stay in this race until May.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Golden Boot
Everyone thinks the winner is the "best player." It's not. It's the player in the most goal-heavy system. This is why Harry Kane used to win it even when Spurs were struggling—the whole team was a delivery system for him.
Right now, Brentford is a delivery system for Igor Thiago. City is a system for winning football matches, and sometimes that involves Haaland, and sometimes it involves Phil Foden (who has 7 goals) or Rayan Cherki (who has 2 goals but 7 assists).
What to Watch in the Coming Weeks
The next month is pivotal. City has a tough run of fixtures, including that Manchester Derby. If Haaland blanks there, and Thiago scores against some of the lower-table teams, we could see the gap close to just two or three goals.
Also, watch out for Leeds. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is finally healthy. He’s got 9 goals and Leeds are playing a very aggressive, high-pressing game under their new management. He’s the kind of player who could go on a run of 10 goals in 10 games if he stays fit.
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Honestly, the EPL golden boot race is the most exciting it's been in years because it isn't a foregone conclusion. We’ve got a mix of legendary veterans, established superstars, and hungry newcomers like Thiago and Ekitiké making life difficult for the "Terminator."
Your Next Moves for Following the Race
If you're trying to keep up with the race or fix your FPL team, here is how you should handle the next few weeks:
- Monitor the City rotation: Watch if Semenyo or Foden start eating into Haaland's shot volume. If Haaland's shots-per-game drops below 3.0, his "safe" status is gone.
- Keep an eye on Brentford's fixtures: Igor Thiago is the real deal, but he relies on the team winning penalties and set pieces. If they face teams with disciplined low blocks, his scoring will dry up.
- Don't sell your Liverpool assets: Ekitiké is on fire. If you don't have him, get him. Salah isn't scoring as much, but he's the one feeding Ekitiké, so he's still essential for points, just maybe not for the Boot.
- Watch the Leeds resurgence: DCL at 9 goals is a massive story. Leeds are creating a high volume of "big chances," and he's the primary beneficiary.
The race is far from over. Haaland is the favorite, but for the first time in a long time, he looks like he might actually have to fight for it.