You’ve seen the headlines. You’ve probably seen the "Cologuard" boxes in your neighbor's trash or heard those catchy commercials. But if you’re looking at Exact Sciences corp stock right now, things just got incredibly weird—and potentially very lucrative.
Honestly, the landscape for this Madison-based cancer diagnostician shifted under everyone's feet in late 2025. We went from wondering when they’d finally hit consistent GAAP profitability to seeing a $21 billion price tag slapped on the front door by Abbott Laboratories.
It’s a wild time.
The $105 Question: What’s Really Happening?
On November 20, 2025, Abbott Laboratories dropped a bombshell. They’re buying Exact Sciences for $105 per share in cash. If you bought in during the 2024 lows when the stock was languishing in the $40s or $50s, you’re basically doing a victory lap.
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But for those holding the bag from the 2021 highs near $150, it's a bit of a bittersweet pill.
Here is the deal: Abbott wants to dominate the "cancer sandwich." They want to be there for the screening, the diagnosis, and the monitoring. By grabbing Exact, they get Cologuard, which is basically the "Kleenex" of at-home colon cancer screening.
The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026. Until then, Exact Sciences corp stock is essentially trading as a "merger arbitrage" play. It’s hovering near that $100–$101 mark, leaving a small "spread" or gap between the current price and the $105 payout.
Why the gap? Because Wall Street is always a little paranoid. There’s always that 1% chance a regulator wakes up on the wrong side of the bed or some "material adverse effect" hits the fan.
Cologuard Plus: The Real Growth Engine
While everyone is talking about the buyout, the actual business is finally hitting its stride. For years, the knock on Exact Sciences was that they spent way too much on marketing. They were burning cash like it was firewood in a Wisconsin winter.
Then came Cologuard Plus.
Launched officially in early 2025, this isn't just a minor update. It’s a complete overhaul. The stats are actually kinda startling:
- 95% sensitivity for detecting colorectal cancer.
- 40% fewer false positives than the original version.
That last part is the kicker. False positives lead to unnecessary colonoscopies, which insurers hate paying for. By making the test "cleaner," Exact (and now Abbott) has made it much easier for doctors to prescribe it without worrying about sending a patient for a procedure they don't need.
The "Cancerguard" Wildcard
If you think this is just about stool samples, you’re missing the forest for the trees. In September 2025, the company launched Cancerguard.
It’s a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) blood test.
Basically, it's a "liquid biopsy" that looks for dozens of different cancers from a single vial of blood. Right now, it’s mostly a "consumer-pay" model—meaning you’re likely shellng out about $689 out of pocket because insurance hasn't quite caught up yet.
But the data is promising. It's picking up aggressive cancers like pancreatic and esophageal—the ones that usually don't get caught until it’s too late. This is why Abbott was willing to pay a premium. They aren't just buying a "poop in a box" company; they're buying a platform that could eventually replace standard physicals.
Is there any risk left?
Market analysts like the team at Zacks have been keeping a close eye on the numbers. Even with the buyout looming, the company is still reporting its own earnings until the keys are handed over.
The most recent Q3 2025 results showed revenue jumping 20% to $851 million. They actually raised their full-year guidance just before the Abbott news broke.
But here’s the rub: competition is coming. Guardant Health and others are pushing hard with their own blood-based colon cancer tests. For a long time, the "stool vs. blood" debate was the biggest threat to Exact Sciences corp stock.
Stool tests (Cologuard) are generally better at finding precancerous polyps. Blood tests are often better at finding actual cancer. If a competitor cracks the code on finding polyps via blood, Cologuard’s moat could start to leak.
Abbott clearly doesn't think that's happening anytime soon. They’re betting $21 billion that Exact's brand recognition and massive lab infrastructure in Madison will keep them ahead of the pack.
What You Should Actually Do Now
If you own the stock, you have a choice. You can sell now, take your $101-ish, and put that money to work elsewhere. Or, you can wait for the deal to close in a few months to squeeze out that last $4 per share.
If you don't own it, buying now is a low-risk, low-reward play. It's basically a high-yield savings account with a slightly higher chance of drama.
Actionable Next Steps for Investors:
- Check your cost basis: If you’re sitting on a massive gain, selling now might help you lock in profits before the end of the quarter, especially if you want to rebalance into more aggressive growth sectors.
- Monitor the regulatory filings: Keep an eye on the HSR (Hart-Scott-Rodino) Act filings. If the Department of Justice or the FTC starts asking too many questions about "monopolizing diagnostics," that $105 target could get shaky.
- Look at the "Abbott ripple effect": If you like the cancer screening space but think Exact is "done" because of the buyout, look at the smaller players in the MRD (Molecular Residual Disease) space. Companies like Natera are now in the crosshairs as potential acquisition targets for other giants like Roche or Thermo Fisher.
- Wait for the February 18, 2026 earnings: This will likely be one of the last "solo" reports for Exact Sciences. If they beat expectations again, it just confirms that Abbott got a steal, even at $21 billion.
The era of Exact Sciences as a standalone "scrappy" biotech is ending. It's becoming part of a healthcare titan. The "poop box" company grew up, and for those who stuck through the volatility of 2022 and 2023, the payoff is finally on the horizon.