Honestly, if you've lived in East Tennessee for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up and it's 19°F, but by lunchtime, you’re wondering where you left your light jacket. That's exactly where we find ourselves right now in Knoxville. The current setup is a classic Tennessee rollercoaster. We’re sitting at a crisp 19°F as I write this, with a "feels like" temp of 14°F thanks to a light southern breeze.
It's cold. Really cold.
But don't get too used to the shivering. The extended weather forecast for Knoxville TN shows a massive swing is coming, and it's coming fast. Today, Friday, January 16, we’re looking at a high of 48°F. That is a nearly 30-degree jump from our morning low. It's the kind of weather that makes choosing an outfit feel like a high-stakes gambling match.
The 10-Day Outlook: Rain, Snow, and More Rain
Basically, the next week and a half is going to be messy. If you were hoping for a consistent winter wonderland, I’ve got some bad news. We are looking at a "cocktail" of precipitation.
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Tonight, things take a turn. We have a 65% chance of snow showers moving in, but with a low of 22°F, it's going to be a battle between the moisture and the freezing line. Saturday keeps that southwest wind around 13 mph, reaching a high of 44°F. It'll be partly sunny, which is a nice break before the real weirdness starts.
Sunday and Monday (January 18-19) look like the "dry" window. Highs will hover in the mid-30s. It’s going to be sunny, but that sun is deceptive. The lows are plummeting back down to 16°F. If you’ve got exposed pipes or sensitive plants you haven't brought in yet, this is your final warning.
Mid-Week Chaos
By Wednesday, January 21, the temperature climbs back to 44°F. But here is the kicker: that warmth brings more moisture. We are looking at a mix of rain and snow for Wednesday night and into Thursday.
The end of next week (January 23-24) looks soggy. Highs will actually hit 51°F on Friday. That's well above the January average of 48°F. Instead of snowmen, we’re probably looking at mud puddles, with a 45% chance of light rain and showers sticking around through Saturday.
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Why Knoxville Weather is So Hard to Predict
People love to complain about the "weatherman," but East Tennessee is a literal nightmare for forecasting. We are tucked right in the Great Valley between the Cumberland Plateau and the Great Smoky Mountains.
This geography creates what experts call "cold air damming." Cold air gets trapped against the mountains, and while Nashville might be seeing rain, we’re stuck with sleet or "wintry mix"—the most hated phrase in the local vocabulary.
National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists in Morristown have already issued a hazardous weather outlook for the region. They’re specifically watching for sub-zero wind chills in the higher elevations. Even if the valley just gets a dusting, the mountains are going to be a different story entirely.
What the Rest of Winter 2026 Looks Like
If you're looking further out, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and NOAA are doing their usual dance of differing opinions. NOAA is leaning toward a weak La Niña, which usually means a warmer and wetter winter for the Southeast.
The Almanac, however, is calling for a colder-than-normal January with some significant snow chances toward the end of the month. Historically, January is our coldest month with an average high of 48°F and a low of 30°F. We’re currently tracking a bit below those averages for the overnight lows, especially with that 12°F low predicted for Sunday, January 25.
TDOT and Local Prep
TDOT crews aren't taking chances. Mark Nagi, the regional communications manager, mentioned they’ve been pre-treating the interstates. They focus on I-40 and I-75 because, honestly, downtown Knoxville sees over 200,000 vehicles a day.
When the temps drop into the teens, like they will early next week, that brine pretreatment loses its mojo. Salt doesn't work as well when it's that cold. Basically, if it looks white or wet on Monday morning, just stay home if you can.
Practical Steps for the Next 7 Days
Since the extended weather forecast for Knoxville TN is so volatile, you need a plan that isn't just "hope for the best."
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- Water your plants now. It sounds counterintuitive, but moist soil stays warmer than dry soil and can actually protect roots during those 15°F nights we have coming up on Tuesday.
- Gas up the car. If we do get a "wintry mix" on Wednesday or Thursday, you don't want to be the person stuck in a three-hour I-40 crawl with the low fuel light on.
- Check your wipers. We're going to see a lot of rain-to-snow transitions. If your wipers are streaking now, they will fail you when the slush hits.
- Layering is life. You'll need a heavy coat at 7:00 AM and probably just a hoodie by 2:00 PM today and tomorrow.
Keep an eye on the local radar. Things change fast here, and that 10% chance of snow can turn into a "surprise" three inches if the moisture hooks up with the cold air just right. Stay warm, Knoxville.