Honestly, if you're looking at the Fannie Mae stock price today and trying to make sense of it using normal logic, you’re probably going to give yourself a headache. It's weird. As of January 16, 2026, the ticker (FNMA) is sitting around $9.70, having just taken a nearly 5% tumble yesterday.
Wait. Didn't people say this thing was going to the moon?
Just a few months ago, the chatter was all about a massive IPO and the "Trump Bump." Now, the mood has shifted. It’s like the market is trying to decide if Fannie is a revitalized American icon or just a permanent utility for the government.
The $200 Billion "Bomb" That Dropped on FNMA
Basically, the big news that shook everything up this week was a directive from the White House. President Trump ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed bonds.
The goal? To force mortgage rates down. It worked—sorta—as rates dipped toward 6.06%.
But for shareholders? It was a gut punch. If the government is using Fannie Mae like a personal piggy bank to manipulate the housing market, it suggests they aren't planning to let it go private anytime soon. You can't really have a "free market" company that also has to follow political orders to buy specific bonds just to lower interest rates for voters.
Jim Parrott, a housing finance expert at the Urban Institute, put it pretty bluntly: the administration seems to view these entities as utilities. The more they use them to drive affordability, the less likely they are to give up control. That's why the Fannie Mae stock price dropped from over $11 earlier this month to where it is now.
Is Privatization Actually Dead?
It's not that simple. Nothing with the GSEs (Government-Sponsored Enterprises) ever is.
Bill Ackman, the Pershing Square hedge fund guy, has been sitting on a 10% stake since forever. He’s still out there suggesting the government could fetch $300 billion from an IPO. And the FHFA Director, William J. Pulte, has been talking about "operational efficiency" and turning Fannie into a "world-class operator."
But there's a massive gap between "running it well" and "giving it back to the public."
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To get Fannie Mae out of the conservatorship it’s been stuck in since 2008, a few things have to happen:
- Capital requirements: Fannie needs a mountain of cash. They’ve been building it—reaching a net worth of about $98.3 billion recently—but it’s still not quite at the level regulators want to see for a fully private entity.
- The "Net Worth Sweep" mess: There is still litigation in the Supreme Court (look at Owl Creek Asia I, L.P. v. United States) about whether the government "took" shareholder money back in 2012.
- The IPO path: To do an IPO, you need Wall Street banks to sign on. So far, the government has hired the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell to advise, but they haven't picked the big banks yet. That’s a signal that they’re still just kicking the tires.
By the Numbers: Why the P/S Ratio is Lying to You
If you look at the stats on a site like MarketBeat or Simply Wall St, you’ll see Fannie Mae has a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of about 2.2x. Compared to the rest of the financial industry (which is closer to 4.5x), Fannie looks like a screaming bargain.
But it’s a trap if you don't look at the cash flows.
The company is technically "loss-making" in a traditional sense because of how the government handles its earnings. While they reported a net income of $3.7 billion in early 2025, that money doesn't go to you, the common shareholder. It stays in the company's "capital" bucket to satisfy the FHFA.
So, while the Fannie Mae stock price might look "cheap," you’re essentially buying a lottery ticket. If the government releases them, the stock could realistically double or triple. If they keep them as a utility? The stock might just sit there or slowly bleed as investors lose patience.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Trump Bump"
There was this huge wave of optimism when Trump won. Investors assumed his "DOGE" (Department of Government Efficiency) energy would apply here—that he’d just privatize everything and let the markets run.
What people forgot is that Trump also wants low mortgage rates.
Low rates make for a happy housing market. And the easiest way to get low rates without the Fed’s help is to use Fannie and Freddie. This creates a "tug-of-war" for the stock.
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- The Bull Case: The government forgives its senior preferred stake, re-lists the stock on the NYSE (it currently trades over-the-counter), and lets it fly.
- The Bear Case: The government keeps the "implied guarantee" and continues to use Fannie as a tool to control the economy, leaving common shareholders in limbo for another decade.
The Actionable Insight: How to Play the Fannie Mae Stock Price
If you're holding FNMA or thinking about jumping in, you've gotta be honest with yourself about your risk tolerance. This isn't Apple or Coca-Cola. It's a political derivative.
Watch the FHFA News Releases: Don't just watch the stock price; watch what William Pulte says. If he starts talking about "deemed-issuance ratios" or concrete steps for an IPO, that’s your green light.
Keep an eye on the 10-Q filings: Look at the "Net Worth" line. Once that number gets closer to the $150–$200 billion range, the "too small to survive on its own" argument starts to disappear.
Diversify: Seriously. Don't put your kids' college fund into a stock that can drop 5% in an hour because of a social media post from the White House.
The next few months are going to be volatile. Between the $200 billion bond-buying program and the looming SCOTUS decisions, the Fannie Mae stock price is going to be a roller coaster. If you can't stomach a 20% drop in a week, stay away. But if you think the privatization dream is finally real, these dips might be the last chance to get in under $10.
To keep your strategy sharp, you should set alerts for any news involving Sullivan & Cromwell or "GSE privatization timelines" from the Treasury Department. Also, watch the 30-year mortgage rate trends; if they stay high, expect the government to keep a tighter grip on Fannie Mae to try and pull them down.