Winter in Frederick is usually a coin toss between a crisp mountain breeze and a complete slush-fest. Right now, if you step outside, it’s about 19°F. Honestly, it feels way colder—the wind chill is dragging that number down to a biting 8°F. That’s the kind of cold that makes you regret forgetting your gloves for even a two-minute walk to the car.
We’re sitting in the middle of a weird January stretch where the sky can’t quite decide what it wants to do. Today, January 16, 2026, we’re looking at a high of 35°F. It’s cloudy, kinda gray, and feels like the atmosphere is just holding its breath. Southwest winds are hovering around 10 mph. Nothing crazy, but enough to keep the air moving and the chill rooted in your bones.
The Forecast for Frederick MD: A Messy Weekend Ahead
If you have plans for Saturday, you might want a backup. Or at least a pair of waterproof boots. Tomorrow is looking like a classic Maryland "everything bagel" of weather—rain, snow, and a high of 47°F.
How does it snow at 47 degrees? Well, the ground is cold, but the air aloft is warming up, creating that lovely wintry mix that makes driving on I-70 such a joy. Most of the precipitation is expected before 1 PM. After that, it should taper off into a cloudy afternoon with lows around 32°F.
Sunday brings us back to reality. The temperature drops to a high of 32°F and a low of 22°F. It’ll be cloudy with about a 20% chance of snow flurries during the day. It’s not a blizzard, but it’s enough to keep the salt trucks busy on the backroads near Braddock Heights.
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Mid-Week Polar Plunge
The real story starts Monday. Martin Luther King Jr. Day looks beautiful but deceptive. It’ll be sunny with a high of 35°F, but the low is a staggering 13°F. Tuesday gets even tighter. We’re talking a high of only 23°F.
Important Note: The Maryland Department of Health has already confirmed cold-related fatalities in Frederick County this season. When these lows hit the teens, it isn't just about comfort; it's a genuine safety issue for anyone without proper shelter or heating.
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Basically, the "January Thaw" we sometimes get? It's not happening this week. We are firmly in the grip of a cold snap that will stick around until at least Wednesday, when things finally crawl back up to 42°F.
Why This Matters for Your Commute
Frederick is notorious for microclimates. What’s a light rain downtown can be a sheet of ice up toward Thurmont or out west near South Mountain. With the humidity sitting around 40-50% this week, we aren't seeing massive moisture, but that 35% chance of snow tonight is enough to create a "flash freeze" situation on the bridges.
- Friday Night: Low of 20°F. If the 35% chance of snow hits, it’ll stick instantly.
- Saturday Morning: That transition from snow to rain is the most dangerous time for black ice.
- Monday/Tuesday: Dry but frigid. Check your tire pressure; these 12°F nights will trigger every TPMS sensor in the city.
Managing the Chill
Looking at the trends, we’re actually seeing a slightly drier January than the long-term averages suggest. Usually, Frederick averages about 3 inches of precipitation this month. This year, we're seeing more frequent, smaller "nuisance" events—a coating here, a flurry there—rather than the big 2016-style snow dumps.
The wind is the real kicker. We’re seeing west and northwest gusts reaching 15-19 mph on the colder days. That turns a manageable 30-degree day into something that feels like 15. If you're heading to Baker Park for a walk, stick to the paths shielded by buildings or trees.
Actionable Steps for the Next 48 Hours:
- Drip the pipes: With lows hitting 12°F-13°F by Monday night, those exterior-wall pipes are at risk.
- Salt early: If you wait until Saturday morning’s rain-snow mix starts, you’ll just be salting a puddle. Get a layer down Friday night.
- Check the pets: This isn't "husky weather"—it's "stay inside" weather. Anything under 20°F is dangerous for most domestic animals for extended periods.
Keep an eye on the Saturday morning transition. That’s going to be the pivot point for how the rest of your weekend goes.