If you’re looking at a 30 day weather forecast fresno right now, you’re probably seeing a lot of "partly cloudy" icons and temperatures hovering in the 60s. Honestly? That only tells about half the story. Fresno in late January and early February is a atmospheric battlefield where the Pacific moisture fights the Valley’s stagnant air.
You’ve likely heard about the Tule fog. It’s not just "fog." It’s a thick, opaque blanket that can drop visibility to ten feet in a heartbeat. According to the National Weather Service, January is historically the wettest month here, averaging about 2.25 inches of rain. But 2026 is throwing us a bit of a curveball with a weakening La Niña.
The Stagnant Reality of the San Joaquin Valley
Right now, the data from the Climate Prediction Center shows a 75% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions. What does that mean for your weekend plans at Woodward Park? It means predictability is out the window.
While the current highs are sitting at a crisp 60°F and lows are dipping to 43°F, the real story is the air quality. When the valley "caps"—meaning warm air traps cold air against the floor—the PM2.5 levels spike. Currently, Fresno is sitting in the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range with an AQI often hitting above 120. If you’re planning to run the Lewis S. Eaton Trail, you might want to check the Valley Air District app before you lace up.
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The sun tries. It really does. We average about 5 to 6 hours of sunshine a day in January, but those hours are hard-won.
Rainfall and the Sierra Shadow
People think California is all sunshine. In Fresno, January rain is a different beast. It’s usually not a tropical downpour; it’s a persistent, grey drizzle that lasts for three days and makes the 41 freeway a nightmare.
Current long-range trends for February 2026 suggest a shift toward slightly warmer than average temperatures, perhaps hitting the high 60s by mid-month. However, the Almanac.com data hints at a stormy period toward the end of February.
What the 30-Day Outlook Actually Looks Like
- Late January: Expect a "rollercoaster" of temperatures. We’ll see highs of 63°F one day and then a drop to 59°F as a weak cold front passes.
- Early February: This is usually when the Tule fog is at its peak. If we get a good rain in the last week of January, the following week will be a grey soup.
- Mid-February: Historical averages show a slight climb to 62°F for highs. It's that "false spring" that makes everyone want to plant tomatoes too early. Don't do it. The frost still bites at night.
Driving Through the "Grey Wall"
If you’re commuting from Clovis or Madera, the 30-day forecast is your safety manual. Tule fog forms when the ground is wet and the nights are clear. The heat radiates away, the air hits the dew point, and suddenly you're driving inside a marshmallow.
The "Fog Season" is statistically the most dangerous time for Central Valley drivers. 2026 hasn't been an exception. When the forecast calls for "patchy fog," locals know that means "total whiteout in the hollows."
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How to Prepare for the Next Month
Stop looking at the single "high" temperature and start looking at the humidity and wind speed. A 3 mph wind from the south usually means the air is staying put—and so is the pollution. A northwesterly breeze at 4-6 mph is your friend; it clears the sky and the lungs.
Layering isn't a suggestion; it’s a survival strategy. You’ll start the day in a heavy parka at 7:00 AM (42°F) and be down to a t-shirt by 2:00 PM (61°F).
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Actionable Next Steps:
- Download the "Valley Air" App: Don't exercise outdoors when the PM2.5 is high, regardless of how "sunny" it looks.
- Check your tires: Fresno roads get incredibly slick during the first rain after a dry spell because of the oil buildup.
- Wait to prune: If you're gardening, wait until the threat of a late-February frost passes before you get too aggressive with the shears.
- Monitor the Snowpack: Keep an eye on the Yosemite/Sierra forecasts. Fresno's water future depends on what happens at 8,000 feet, even if it's just raining in the city.