General Motors Co Stock: Why Most Investors Get the Math Wrong

General Motors Co Stock: Why Most Investors Get the Math Wrong

Walk into any local bar in Detroit or scroll through the loud corners of Finance Twitter, and you'll hear the same tired story about the General Motors Co stock. People love to talk about the "glory days" or complain that the "Big Three" can't keep up with Silicon Valley. But honestly? Most of those people aren't actually looking at the numbers. They’re looking at a rearview mirror that’s been foggy for a decade.

If you look at the screen today, January 18, 2026, you’ll see GM trading around $80.82. That’s after a wild ride that saw it hit an all-time high of $85.13 just about two weeks ago on January 8. For a company that people have been trying to bury since the 2008 recession, that’s a pretty loud statement.

The $7 Billion Elephant in the Room

Ten days ago, GM dropped a massive 8-K filing that made a lot of headlines for all the wrong reasons. They announced a $7.1 billion hit to their fourth-quarter earnings. Most of that—roughly $6 billion—is tied to them basically admitting that the "all-in" EV transition was way more expensive and slower than they expected.

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You’d think the stock would have cratered.

Instead, it’s holding remarkably steady. Why? Because the market is starting to realize that Mary Barra is playing a much more disciplined game than she gets credit for. By taking the $6 billion hit now to restructure EV capacity and another $1.1 billion to fix the China joint venture, she’s clearing the decks. It’s a "rip the Band-Aid off" move.

Actually, Citigroup just upgraded the stock to a price target of $98 right after that announcement. They see the restructuring as a way to protect margins rather than a sign of failure. It's about building cars people actually want to buy today—which, for now, are mostly gas-powered trucks and SUVs—rather than forcing a future that the charging infrastructure isn't ready for yet.

The Buyback Math That Everyone Misses

Here is the thing about General Motors Co stock that sort of drives me crazy when I talk to retail investors. Everyone looks at the dividend. GM’s dividend yield is tiny—less than 1% (it’s currently $0.15 per share). Compare that to Ford, which often yields over 4%, and people think GM is being stingy.

They aren't. They’re just returning money differently.

Since 2023, GM has announced a staggering $16 billion in share buybacks. Think about that. When a company buys back its own stock, your "slice of the pizza" gets bigger because there are fewer slices left.

If you combine the dividend with the value of those buybacks, the "total yield" for GM investors is sitting somewhere around 11.3%. That is double what Ford is offering. It’s a massive transfer of wealth back to shareholders that doesn’t show up on a simple dividend screener. It’s basically a secret in plain sight.

Is the EV Dream Dead?

Not even close. But it is definitely "choppy," as CFO Paul Jacobson put it recently.

Last year, GM actually did something impressive: they sold 169,887 EVs. That made them the number two EV seller in the U.S., behind only Tesla. The Chevy Equinox EV has become the best-selling non-Tesla electric car in the country.

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But there’s a catch.

Demand slowed down hard in late 2025. The end of certain federal tax credits in September 2025 felt like a bucket of cold water. GM responded by cutting production and laying off about 1,140 people at Factory Zero earlier this month. They’re no longer chasing volume at any cost; they’re chasing profitability.

What to Watch in 2026

  1. The SUV Dominance: GM is still the king of full-size SUVs. The Tahoe and Suburban are basically money-printing machines. As long as those sell, they can fund whatever high-tech experiments they want.
  2. Software Revenue: This is the sleeper hit. They’re pulling in about $2 billion a year from things like OnStar and Super Cruise. It’s high-margin stuff that makes them look more like a tech company and less like a metal-bender.
  3. The China Pivot: The restructuring of the China joint venture is huge. GM used to rely on China for growth; now it’s a drag. If they can stabilize that, the stock has a lot of room to run.

The Reality Check

Look, investing in a legacy automaker isn't for the faint of heart. The debt-to-equity ratio is high (around 2.0), and the transition to autonomous driving through Cruise has been a bumpy, expensive road. There’s also the looming threat of a 2026 slowdown in new car sales. Cox Automotive is forecasting a 2.4% dip in total industry volume this year.

But GM is entering this period leaner than it has ever been. Their breakeven point is way lower than the "Old GM" days.

If you're holding General Motors Co stock, you're not just betting on a car company. You're betting on a massive capital reallocation machine that is buying back shares at a record pace while waiting for the EV market to mature.

What You Should Do Now

If you’re looking at your portfolio and wondering if the run-up to $80 was the peak, keep an eye on the January 27 earnings call. That’s when the "real" numbers from the $7.1 billion charge will hit the books.

  • Watch the margins: If GM North America keeps its margins above 8-10% despite the EV mess, the stock is likely undervalued.
  • Check the share count: Watch how many shares they actually retired in Q4. If that number keeps dropping, the EPS (earnings per share) will naturally rise, even if total profit stays flat.
  • Don't ignore the pickups: The Silverado and Sierra are the lifeblood. Any sign of weakness there is a much bigger red flag than a slow month for the Lyriq or the Optiq.

Keep your eyes on the free cash flow. That's the only number that doesn't lie in Detroit.