The energy inside Global Credit Union Arena is different. If you’ve ever stood in the middle of the "Havocs" student section, you know it's less like a college basketball game and more like a controlled riot in purple. But this year, the stakes have shifted.
Grand Canyon University isn't just the big fish in the WAC anymore. They’ve jumped into the deep end of the Mountain West Conference (MWC) a full year earlier than originally planned. Honestly, it’s a gutsy move. Most programs would want that extra year to recruit and beef up the roster, but Bryce Drew and the administration decided to take the leap for the 2025-26 season.
So, what does that mean for your grand canyon basketball prediction? It means the margin for error just evaporated.
The Reality of the Mountain West Jump
The MWC isn't a "mid-major" in the way people used to use that term. It’s a multi-bid league that consistently sends four, five, or even six teams to the Big Dance. Last season, the conference was the sixth-ranked league in the entire country.
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GCU entered this season with a target on their back and a massive chip on their shoulder. As of mid-January 2026, the Lopes sit at 10-5 overall with a 3-1 record in conference play. That’s solid. It’s better than many skeptics expected for a debut season.
But look at the schedule. The gauntlet is just beginning. They’ve already faced tough losses against Saint Louis and Iowa in the non-conference slate, and a frustrating 70-60 home loss to Colorado State to open the new year. However, they bounced back with a massive statement win on the road at Boise State (75-58) and just handled San Jose State at home.
Who is actually carrying this team?
You can’t talk about a grand canyon basketball prediction without looking at the personnel. Tyon Grant-Foster is gone—he’s at Gonzaga now—and Collin Moore declared for the NBA Draft. That’s a lot of production to replace.
Bryce Drew hit the portal hard to keep the momentum alive. Here is who is actually making an impact:
- Makaih Williams: The UT Arlington transfer has stepped up as a primary engine. He’s quick, fearless, and fits the Drew system perfectly.
- Nana Owusu-Anane: Coming over from Brown, he provides that veteran, "Ivy League tough" interior presence. He isn't going to wow you with 30 points, but he grabs the rebounds that win games.
- Dusty Stromer: This was the big splash. Getting Stromer from Gonzaga was a statement. He brings high-level experience and spacing that the Lopes desperately needed.
- The Big Men: Dennis Evans (7'2") and Efe Demirel (7'1") give GCU a level of rim protection they simply never had in the WAC.
Breaking Down the Numbers
If you’re looking at the betting lines or trying to map out the rest of the season, the defensive metrics are your best friend.
Currently, GCU’s adjusted defensive efficiency is hovering around the top 70 nationally. They are long. They are disruptive. In their recent win against San Jose State, they held the Spartans to under 60 points. That has to be their identity.
Offensively, it’s a bit more "work in progress." They rank around 200th in points per game. They go through these dry spells where nobody wants to take the big shot. If they want to survive the February stretch against San Diego State and New Mexico, that has to change.
Why the Next Two Weeks Are Critical
The schedule maker wasn't kind to the newcomers.
On January 13, 2026, the Lopes head into "The Pit" to face New Mexico. If you know college hoops, you know New Mexico at home is a nightmare. Following that, they host #23 Utah State and then a perennial powerhouse in San Diego State.
Basically, we are about to find out if GCU is a legitimate MWC contender or just a "happy to be here" participant.
My Grand Canyon basketball prediction? Expect a rollercoaster. They are likely to finish in the top half of the Mountain West—somewhere in the 4th to 6th place range. That should be enough to keep them firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
They won't win the league outright. Not yet. The depth of San Diego State and the experience of Boise State are just a notch above right now. But GCU is a "bad matchup" for anyone because of their size and that insane home-court advantage.
Key Factors for the Postseason
- Home Dominance: They have to win 85% of their games at Global Credit Union Arena. The Havocs need to be a factor.
- Health of the Bigs: If Dennis Evans gets into foul trouble or gets nicked up, the interior defense crumbles.
- The "Third Scorer": Williams and Stromer will get theirs. Someone like Caleb Shaw or Brian Moore Jr. needs to consistently contribute 12 points a night to take the pressure off.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you’re tracking this team for the remainder of the 2026 season, focus on the "Quad 1" opportunities. The Mountain West provides plenty of them, which is exactly why GCU moved.
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- Watch the Road Splits: GCU has historically struggled in high-altitude road games. Their performance at Wyoming and Nevada will tell you more about their toughness than any home blowout.
- Betting Tip: The "Under" has been a frequent friend for GCU games lately due to their elite defense and occasional offensive lulls.
- Tournament Outlook: Keep an eye on the NET Rankings. As of now, they are safely inside the top 60. If they can stay there and avoid "bad" losses to teams like Air Force or Fresno State, they’ll be playing meaningful basketball in March.
The transition is happening in real-time. It’s messy, it’s loud, and it’s exactly what Bryce Drew wanted when he took the job. Grand Canyon is no longer an upstart; they are a program trying to cement themselves as a top-tier West Coast power. Whether they sink or swim in the Mountain West depends entirely on how they handle this upcoming January gauntlet.