You’ve probably heard the rumors. Maybe you’ve seen the TikToks or the forum threads on PurseBop claiming the floodgates are finally opening. People are whispering that the "Birkin bait" days are over because of a massive hermes handbags production increase.
Honestly? It's not that simple.
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If you think you’re going to walk into the Faubourg Saint-Honoré flagship tomorrow and see a row of Birkin 25s sitting on a shelf like they're Zara totes, you’re going to be disappointed. Hermès is growing, yes. But they aren't "scaling" in the way a normal business does. They’re expanding with the speed of a glacier—intentional, slow, and remarkably steady.
The Strategy Behind the 2026 Expansion
Axel Dumas, the CEO who basically lives and breathes the "patience is a virtue" mantra, has been very clear about the house's trajectory. As of early 2026, the company is coming off a massive year where leather goods revenue jumped significantly—over 18% in the previous fiscal year.
But here is the catch: they won't increase production by more than about 7% or 8% a year. Why? Because you can't just buy a machine to make a Kelly.
Why the "Slow Grow" is the Only Way
Every single bag is still made by one person. From start to finish. If that artisan gets the flu, that bag doesn't get finished that week.
To keep up with the insane global demand, Hermès is building new workshops (they call them maroquineries) across France. It’s a localized, rural strategy that feels more like 1826 than 2026.
- L’Isle-d’Espagnac: Opened in late 2025, this twenty-fourth leather workshop in the Charente region is already pumping out Birkins and Kellys.
- Loupes (Gironde): This site is the big news for 2026. It’s part of a regional hub strategy meant to revitalize the area around Bordeaux.
- Charleville-Mézières: Slated for 2027, followed by Colombelles in 2028.
Basically, they are opening one new major factory a year. Each one houses around 250 to 300 artisans. Do the math. That’s maybe 1,000 new pairs of hands over a few years. In a world where millions of people want these bags, it's a drop in the bucket. But for the brand, it’s a controlled hermes handbags production increase that protects their "ultra-luxury" status.
The Training Bottleneck (The École Hermès)
You can't just hire someone who's good with a needle.
The real reason for the waitlist isn't a lack of leather. It’s a lack of teachers. In 2021, they launched the École Hermès des Savoir-Faire. It’s an accredited school that grants a French state diploma in leatherworking (the CAP).
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Apprentices spend years learning the "saddle stitch." It’s a technique where two needles pass through the same hole in opposite directions. It’s indestructible. Machines can't do it. If a stitch breaks, a machine-sewn bag unravells. A saddle-stitched bag stays shut.
Because it takes about two years to fully train a new artisan, the hermes handbags production increase we are seeing in 2026 is actually the result of hires made back in 2023 and 2024.
The 2026 Price Reality Check
Don't let the word "increase" fool you into thinking prices are coming down. Supply is going up, but prices are going up faster.
As of January 2026, we’ve seen some of the steepest price hikes in recent memory. A Birkin 25 in Togo leather that might have cost you under $11,000 a few years ago is now pushing past the $13,500 mark in the U.S. market. In Europe, the jumps have been just as aggressive, often landing in the 7% to 12% range depending on the leather type.
Recent Price Snapshots (approximate):
- Birkin 30 (Togo): Now hovering around $14,900.
- Kelly 25 (Epsom Sellier): Now approximately $9,600 (in Euros).
- Mini Kelly 20: Has become one of the most expensive "per square inch" items, with some leathers jumping over 10% this year alone.
The logic is simple: if they produce more, they have to ensure the "barrier to entry" remains high. They don't want the brand to become "common," a word that is basically a slur in the halls of the Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré.
Misconceptions About the "Increase"
There's a common theory that Hermès is "hiding" bags to create artificial scarcity. While they certainly manage their inventory with an iron fist, the scarcity is mostly physical.
The "One Artisan, One Bag" Rule
An artisan spends 18 to 24 hours on a single Birkin. If you have 7,000 artisans (which is roughly where they are now), and they each work a standard French 35-hour week, you can only physically produce a certain number of units.
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The Quality of Leathers
Even with the hermes handbags production increase, they won't compromise on the skin. If a shipment of Togo leather comes in and the grain is inconsistent, those bags don't get made. Period. They would rather have empty shelves than a "B-grade" bag.
"True luxury is allowing sufficient time for creation." — Axel Dumas
This isn't just a marketing slogan. It’s a supply chain constraint.
What This Means for Your Boutique Visit
If you’re chasing a quota bag (a Birkin, Kelly, or Constance), the increased production is good news, but it doesn't change the "game."
The competition is also increasing. More people have more wealth than ever, and the "investment" narrative surrounding these bags has brought in collectors who don't even care about fashion—they just want an asset class.
Practical advice for 2026:
- Focus on the New Ateliers: Bags often carry stamps indicating where they were made. Keep an eye out for the newer workshops like Riom or the newly opened L’Isle-d’Espagnac.
- The "Non-Quota" Surge: The production increase is most visible in bags like the Arçon, the Geta, and the Della Cavalleria. If you want to build a relationship with a Sales Associate, these are much easier to find than they were two years ago.
- Regional Loyalty: Hermès is rewarding "local" clients more than "tourist" spend. With the expansion of the French workshops, there is a renewed focus on European availability, though the U.S. and China remain the biggest revenue drivers.
Actionable Insights for Collectors
The hermes handbags production increase is a slow-burn strategy. To navigate this new landscape, stop looking for "shortcuts" and start looking at the calendar.
- Track the Workshop Openings: When a new workshop like Loupes opens (slated for later this year), there is a slight lag, and then a moderate bump in specific models that the new artisans are trained on first—usually smaller leather goods and "entry" bags like the Evelyne or Picotin.
- Accept the New Price Floor: The 2026 price hikes are here to stay. If you’re waiting for a "dip" in the market to buy from a boutique, you’re waiting for a ghost.
- Monitor the Resale Spread: As production increases, the "premium" on the secondary market for common colors (Gold, Noir, Etoupe) may soften slightly. However, for "Store Fresh" 2026 models with the newest date stamps, expect to still pay a 40% to 100% markup over retail.
The house of Hermès is growing, but it's growing on its own terms. It’s a masterclass in how to sell more without looking like you’re trying to sell anything at all.
Next Steps for Your Collection:
Research the specific opening date of the Loupes workshop in the Gironde region, as this will be the primary driver for increased European inventory in the latter half of 2026. Additionally, check the 2026 price list for "non-quota" bags to identify which models offer the best value-to-craftsmanship ratio before your next boutique appointment.