If you’ve lived in Southeast Texas for more than five minutes, you know the drill. One day you’re wearing flip-flops to the grocery store, and the next, you’re frantically wrapping your outdoor pipes because a "Blue Norther" decided to drop the temperature by 30 degrees in an hour. Right now, looking at the houston tx weather forecast 15 day outlook, we are staring down the barrel of some classic, messy, and honestly kind of annoying winter volatility.
Forget the mild start to the year. The grace period is over.
The Immediate Forecast: A Tale of Two Weeks
First, let's talk about right now. As of Tuesday, January 13, 2026, we're dealing with a bit of "gray soup" outside. There’s a light rain hanging over the city, and the high is struggling to even hit $56^\circ$F. It’s that damp, clingy cold that feels way worse than the thermometer says.
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But don't get too comfortable in your heavy coat. Tomorrow, Wednesday, January 14, things swing the other way. We’re looking at a sunny jump up to $67^\circ$F. It’s perfect patio weather, provided you don't mind the $15$ mph winds whipping your napkins around.
The Mid-Range Rollercoaster (Days 3-7)
By Friday, January 16, the warmth peaks. We are talking about a high of $71^\circ$F. It’s a total tease. If you have outdoor plans, Friday is your golden window because the back half of the weekend brings the chill back.
Saturday drops us back into the $50$s. Sunday morning? Hope you didn't put the extra blankets away. We’re looking at a low of $44^\circ$F. It’s not a deep freeze, but for a city that thinks anything under $60^\circ$F is an Arctic expedition, it’s enough to send everyone to the drive-thru for hot coffee.
Houston TX Weather Forecast 15 Day: The Late January Shift
The real story starts as we move into next week. Looking toward Monday, January 19 (MLK Day), the "quiet" weather begins to break. While the holiday itself looks mostly sunny and comfortable with a high of $65^\circ$F, the humidity is going to start creeping back up from the Gulf.
When you see the humidity rise in Houston during January, you know trouble—or at least rain—is coming.
The Rainy Turn
Tuesday, January 20, through Thursday, January 22, marks a significant shift. We’re going from "sunny and crisp" to "humid and wet."
- Tuesday night: Rain chances jump to $65%$.
- Wednesday: Expect a heavy soaking. Highs will be around $70^\circ$F, but you won’t enjoy it because of the downpours.
- Thursday: The clouds linger, and temperatures actually spike to $76^\circ$F.
This is the "pre-front" warm-up. It’s usually the stickiest part of the month.
The Cold Snap Potential (January 23-28)
As we approach the end of the 15-day window, the models are sniffing out a much stronger cold front. Around January 24, we’re looking at a transition from showery, humid conditions ($73^\circ$F) into a much colder, drier air mass.
By the time we hit the final days of January, the Almanac and local experts like the team at Space City Weather suggest we might see our coldest morning lows of the season so far. We are talking about potential dips into the mid-$30$s for the city, and likely a light freeze for areas like Conroe or The Woodlands.
What Most People Get Wrong About Houston Winters
People think Houston doesn't have a winter. They’re wrong. We have a "volatile spring-winter hybrid."
The biggest mistake is trusting a single 15-day "icon" forecast on your phone. In Houston, the position of the jet stream can shift 50 miles and turn a "sunny $60$s" day into a "rainy $40$s" nightmare.
The Drought Factor
Another thing nobody is talking about is the drought. We entered 2026 with a significant rain deficit—some areas are $12$ inches below normal. While the rain forecast for Jan 20-24 looks promising, it probably won't be enough to break the moderate-to-severe drought conditions across Southeast Texas. This means the ground is hard. When it does rain heavily on Wednesday the 21st, watch out for street flooding. The water has nowhere to go.
Surviving the 15-Day Swing
Basically, you need to be a weather chameleon for the next two weeks.
- Dress in layers, for real: You'll need a jacket at 7:00 AM and short sleeves by 2:00 PM this coming Friday.
- Check your tires: Drastic temp drops (like the one coming Jan 24) cause your tire pressure light to pop on. It’s not a leak; it’s just physics.
- Don't plant the spring flowers yet: I know the $71^\circ$F weather on Friday feels like spring is here. It’s a lie. We still have the threat of a freeze through late February.
Keep an eye on the late-month cold front. While the houston tx weather forecast 15 day shows a lot of "milder" days in the $60$s, that sharp drop toward the end of January is the one that will catch you off guard if you aren't prepared.
Next Steps for You:
If you have sensitive plants or exposed pipes, take advantage of the sunny weather this Thursday and Friday to check your insulation. Don't wait until the rain starts on the 21st to realize your outdoor faucet covers are missing. Check your windshield wipers too—you're going to need them mid-week.