Houston’s version of winter is basically a game of meteorological "Would You Rather." Would you rather have a 70-degree afternoon that feels like a fake spring, or a 38-degree morning that makes you regret every life choice involving thin socks? Next week, you won't have to choose. You’re getting both.
Honestly, if you've lived in Southeast Texas for more than five minutes, you know the drill. We don't have seasons; we have mood swings. After a somewhat chaotic start to January where we were flirting with record-breaking highs near 85 degrees (looking at you, last Wednesday), the atmosphere is finally trying to behave like it’s actually January. Sorta.
The Houston Weather Next Week Reality Check
Right now, the city is sitting in a clear, cool pocket. We’re coming off a night where the thermometer hit 48°F with a humidity level that would make a swamp feel dry—88%, to be exact. But don't get used to the stillness.
As we look at the weather in houston texas next week, the primary thing to watch isn't a massive blizzard or a hurricane, but a slow, damp descent into what I like to call "The Gray Zone."
The Mid-Week Warmth and the Weekend Dip
Wednesday is looking like the peak of the "enjoyable" outdoor weather. We’re talking a high of 65°F under full sun. It’s the kind of day where you leave the house in a hoodie and end up throwing it in the backseat by noon. The wind is coming in from the northwest at about 16 mph, which keeps the air feeling crisp rather than stagnant.
But then, Thursday happens.
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The temperature takes a noticeable tumble. We’re looking at a high of 57°F and a low of 39°F. It’s a dry chill, though—humidity drops to 39%. If you have sensitive skin or plants that think it’s still May, this is the part of the week where you start seeing the effects.
Friday’s Fake-Out
Friday, January 16, is the ultimate Houston bait-and-switch.
- High: 71°F
- Condition: Mostly sunny
- Humidity: 58%
It feels like the weekend is going to be a patio-weather dream. It’s not. By Saturday, a northern flow brings us back down to a high of 55°F. The sky turns partly sunny, and the humidity bottoms out at 30%. It’s going to feel significantly colder than the number on the screen because that dry air just eats whatever body heat you’ve got left.
Rain is Crashing the Party Late
The real shift in the weather in houston texas next week arrives as we hit the Monday and Tuesday stretch. While the first half of the week is bone-dry (0% chance of rain through Sunday), things get messy starting January 19.
Monday brings a 20% chance of light rain, but Tuesday, January 20, is the day you’ll actually need the umbrella. We’re looking at a 75% chance of rain by Tuesday night with a high of only 51°F. That is a miserable combination. Cold rain in Houston is arguably worse than a freeze because it’s just wet enough to soak through your clothes but not cold enough to be "pretty" snow.
Why This Pattern Actually Matters
Most people get Houston winters wrong. They think it's either "hot" or "cold." The reality is the variability. According to local experts like Eric Berger at Space City Weather, these "punctuated" events—where we swing 20 degrees in 24 hours—are the hallmark of our current ENSO-neutral transition.
We aren't seeing a "polar vortex" like the 2021 disaster, but we are seeing a consistent flow of weak fronts that keep the humidity from building up too much—until they don't. By the time we hit next Wednesday, January 21, the humidity climbs back to 69% and the highs return to nearly 60°F.
What You Should Actually Do
- The "Two-Layer" Rule: Between now and Friday, do not leave the house without a shell you can peel off. A high of 71°F feels great, but a 39°F morning will catch you off guard.
- Hydrate Your Plants (and Yourself): That 30% humidity on Saturday is a desert-level dry for Houston. Your indoor ferns will hate it, and your skin will too.
- Plan Your Commute for Tuesday: The rain on Jan 20 isn't just a drizzle. With a 75% chance of showers and a low of 38°F, the roads will be slick and the visibility will be garbage.
The weather in houston texas next week is basically a reminder that winter in the 713 is a marathon of adjustments. You’ve got a few days of glorious sunshine to enjoy before the "Big Gray" sets in next Monday. Use the sunshine while it's here, because by next Tuesday, you'll be staring at a rainy window wishing for that 71-degree Friday again.