Watching your portfolio bleed red is a gut-punch. Honestly, there is no other way to put it. You log into your brokerage account, see those downward-slanting lines, and suddenly that "long-term investor" mindset you bragged about at dinner starts feeling pretty shaky. You want to know when the bleeding stops. You want to know how long does a bear market last because the uncertainty is usually worse than the actual loss.
Most people think bear markets are these decade-long slogs that ruin generations. They aren't. Not usually, anyway.
If we look at the S&P 500 from the Great Depression through the start of 2026, the data tells a much more nuanced story than the scary headlines suggest.
The Numbers Nobody Tells You
Let's get the math out of the way. Since 1929, the average bear market has lasted about 9.6 months. That’s it. Less than a year.
If you compare that to the average bull market—which hangs around for roughly 2.7 years—the "bear" is really just a short, moody guest who overstays their welcome by a few months. But "average" is a dangerous word in finance. It hides the extremes. You’ve got the 2020 COVID crash that technically lasted only 33 days from peak to trough, and then you’ve got the agonizing 31-month grind of the Dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s.
Why some bears are "short and sharp"
Sometimes the market just needs to exhale. These are often called "cyclical" bear markets. They happen because interest rates ticked up a bit too fast, or maybe investors just got a little too "frothy" (Wall Street speak for "greedy").
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- 1987 Crash: It felt like the end of the world, but the actual bear market lasted only about three months.
- 1962 "Flash Crash": This one took roughly seven months to bottom out.
- 2022 Inflation Scare: This lasted about nine months before things started looking up again.
These aren't systemic collapses; they're corrections that went a bit too far.
When the Bear Decides to Move In
Then there are the "secular" bear markets. These are the ones that actually earn their scary reputation. These aren't just bad moods; they are fundamental shifts in the economy. Think of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis or the Great Depression.
When a bear market is tied to a recession, it typically lasts longer—about 15 to 17 months on average. Without a recession? You’re looking at more like 6 months.
Right now, in 2026, we’re seeing a lot of talk about the "AI Supercycle" and whether the massive valuations in tech are sustainable. J.P. Morgan’s 2026 outlook recently pointed out that while the global economy is resilient, there’s still a 35% chance of a recession. If that 35% hits, history suggests you should settle in for at least a year of volatility.
The "Recovery" Illusion
Here is what most people get wrong about how long does a bear market last. They think the bear market ends when they get their money back.
Nope.
Technically, a bear market ends the moment the stocks hit their absolute bottom and start the 20% climb back up. But reaching "breakeven" takes much longer. On average, it takes about 2.1 years for the S&P 500 to crawl back to its previous all-time high after a bear market.
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"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." — Warren Buffett
That quote is a cliché for a reason. If you sold your stocks in June of 1932 (the bottom of the Great Depression), you missed out on a 121% gain over the next year. You have to be there for the "face-ripping rally" that usually follows the bottom.
How to Spot the End (Sorta)
You can’t time the bottom. Nobody can. Not even the guys in $5,000 suits on CNBC. But you can look for signs that the bear is getting tired.
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- The Fed Pivots: When the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and starts hinting at cuts, the bear usually starts packing its bags.
- Blood in the Streets: When your most "diamond-handed" friends start selling and saying "stocks are a scam," we’re usually near the end. Maximum pessimism is a leading indicator.
- Valuations Reset: In early 2026, the Shiller P/E ratio (a measure of how expensive stocks are) has been hovering near 40. Historically, bear markets don't truly end until those numbers come down to a more "reasonable" level, usually closer to 20 or 25.
Actionable Steps for the Current Climate
If you're staring at a bear market right now, or you're worried one is about to start, don't just sit there and sweat.
- Check your "Cash Drag": Do you have enough cash to live for 12-24 months without touching your stocks? If the answer is no, you’re not an investor; you’re a gambler.
- Rebalance, don't Retreat: Instead of selling everything, move money from the stuff that hasn't dropped much (like bonds or defensive utilities) into the stuff that's getting crushed (like high-quality tech or small caps).
- Stop Checking the App: Seriously. If the average bear market is 9.6 months, looking at your account every morning is just 280+ days of unnecessary cortisol.
- Tax-Loss Harvesting: Use the losses to your advantage. You can use those "paper losses" to offset capital gains or even $3,000 of your regular income on your taxes. It's the only "free lunch" the IRS gives you.
Bear markets are the price of admission for the gains of a bull market. They are frequent, they are painful, and they are always temporary. Historically, the S&P 500 has been in a bull market about 78% of the time over the last century. The bear is the exception, not the rule.
Stop focusing on the "when" and start focusing on your "how"—as in, how you're going to stay sane until the numbers turn green again. Focus on increasing your savings rate during these periods. Buying shares when they are 20% or 30% off is exactly how real wealth is built over decades. Every single bear market in US history has ended in a new all-time high. Every. Single. One.