You've probably stood in the dairy aisle recently, staring at a price tag that felt like a typo. Or maybe you were just looking for a simple carton of a dozen large whites and found nothing but a lonely, dented pack of expensive pasture-raised eggs. It’s frustrating. Honestly, it’s beyond frustrating when a kitchen staple becomes a luxury or, worse, a ghost.
So, the big question: how long will egg shortage last?
The short answer? We’re looking at a bumpy recovery that stretches deep into 2026. While the USDA is projecting a production increase of about 7.5% this year, that "recovery" is built on a very shaky foundation. If you’re waiting for the $1.50 cartons of 2021 to come back, you might be waiting a long time.
Why the shelves are still empty (mostly)
It’s easy to blame "inflation" or "corporate greed," but the primary villain here is a biological one. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), specifically the H5N1 strain, has been tearing through poultry farms like a wildfire.
In just the first two weeks of January 2026, we’ve already seen new cases in Georgia and Minnesota. When a single bird in a commercial facility tests positive, the entire flock has to be culled. We’re talking millions of birds gone in a matter of days. Since this nightmare started back in 2022, nearly 185 million birds have been lost.
Think about that.
It takes about five to six months for a chick to grow into a productive laying hen. You can’t just flip a switch and get more eggs. When a farm in Ohio or Nebraska loses two million hens—which happened multiple times in late 2025—it creates a massive hole in the supply chain that takes half a year just to begin filling.
The 2026 outlook: A tale of two halves
The experts at the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) have been crunching the numbers. They’re hopeful. They expect table egg production to hit around 7.9 billion dozen this year.
That sounds great on paper.
But there’s a catch. This forecast assumes "no further large impacts" from the bird flu. That’s a massive "if." As of mid-January 2026, the virus is still confirmed in 11 states and shows no signs of disappearing into the winter air.
- First Quarter 2026: Supply will likely stay tight. We are still feeling the "echo" of the massive flock losses from the fall of 2025.
- Post-Easter 2026: This is the milestone many industry insiders, like Michael Wurzer of the Austrian Poultry Industry Association, are pointing to for a genuine "easing" of the market. Historically, demand drops after the holiday baking season, giving farmers a chance to catch up.
- Late 2026: If—and it's a big if—we avoid a major spring outbreak during wild bird migration, we might see a return to "normal" stocking levels by the end of the year.
Prices won't just "snap back"
Here is the part most people get wrong. Even if the how long will egg shortage last question is answered by "supply is back," the prices aren't going to plummet instantly.
In late 2025, wholesale prices for large white eggs were hovering around $2.50 to $2.60 per dozen. While that's better than the $5+ peaks we saw in some regions, it’s still high. The USDA predicts retail prices might average out around 230 cents ($2.30) a dozen by the first quarter of 2026, but that’s a wholesale projection. What you see at the register in New York or California will be higher.
Why?
Labor costs are up. Feed costs, while stabilizing, aren't exactly cheap. Plus, many states are transitioning to cage-free mandates. It's much more expensive to produce a cage-free egg than a conventional one. In the UK and parts of Europe, retailers are actually delaying their switch to 100% free-range just to keep something on the shelves.
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The "D1.1" Factor
There’s a new variable in the mix: a genotype of the virus called D1.1. It emerged late in 2024 and has been more aggressive. According to reports from the World Organization for Animal Health, this variant is the reason the 2025-2026 season has been so brutal compared to previous years.
It’s harder to keep out. Even with "Level 4" style biosecurity where workers change clothes and step in disinfectant baths, the virus is sneaking in. It moves on the wind, on the tires of trucks, and even on the shoes of workers who didn't realize they stepped in something contaminated outside.
What you can actually do right now
If you’re tired of the "Out of Stock" signs, you have a few options that don't involve starting a backyard farm (though many people are doing exactly that).
- Look for "Liquid" Eggs: Often, the shortage hits shell eggs hardest. Cartons of liquid egg whites or whole egg replacements are sometimes more available and cheaper for scrambling.
- Check Local Direct Sales: Smaller farms aren't always hit by the same supply chain bottlenecks as the massive "complexes" that supply Walmart or Kroger.
- Adjust the Menu: If a recipe calls for three eggs, see if you can get away with two and a bit of applesauce or yogurt. It sounds desperate, but it works for muffins and pancakes.
- Watch the "Best By" Dates: Eggs actually last a lot longer than the date on the carton. If you find a decent price, buy two cartons. They’ll usually stay good in the back of the fridge for 3-5 weeks past that date.
The how long will egg shortage last reality is that we are living through a fundamental shift in how our food is produced. We’ve moved toward massive, centralized farms for efficiency, but that efficiency makes us vulnerable. One sick bird can lead to a million-egg deficit overnight.
Expect better availability by the summer of 2026, but keep your budget adjusted for these higher prices. The era of the "almost-free" egg is likely over for good.
Next Steps for Your Kitchen Budget:
- Audit your grocery app: Set alerts for egg restocks at local stores so you aren't driving around aimlessly.
- Compare "Organic" vs "Conventional": Sometimes the price gap has narrowed so much that the organic option is only 20 cents more—grab it while it's there.
- Stock up on alternatives: Keep flaxseeds or commercial egg replacers in the pantry for baking so you can save your "real" eggs for breakfast.