When the black or white smoke finally drifts above the Sistine Chapel, the world holds its breath. But before that moment, inside those locked doors, a very specific mathematical drama is playing out. If you've ever wondered how many votes for new pope are actually required to end the wait, you aren't alone. It isn't just a simple "most votes wins" situation like a local election. It’s a rigid, centuries-old numbers game that has shifted slightly under different popes, but mostly sticks to one high bar: the two-thirds supermajority.
Technically, to become the Bishop of Rome, a candidate needs to secure two-thirds of the votes from the cardinal electors present. As of the most recent counts in early 2026, with about 135 eligible cardinals under the age of 80, that magic number sits at 90.
Wait. Let’s back up.
Why 90? Because the law is precise. If the total number of electors isn't divisible by three, the requirement is two-thirds plus one. This ensures no one can "almost" win. You have to truly dominate the room.
The Math Behind the Smoke
Honestly, the way they count these things is intense. It’s not just one person tallying on a clipboard. They use three "scrutineers" who are chosen by lot.
The first scrutineer takes a ballot, notes the name, and passes it to the second. The second does the same and passes it to the third. The third scrutineer then reads the name aloud so all the cardinals in the room can keep their own personal tally. It’s transparent within the room, but totally secret to the outside world.
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- First day: Usually just one afternoon vote.
- Subsequent days: Two votes in the morning, two in the afternoon.
- The Tally: Every single ballot is pierced with a needle through the word Eligo (I elect) and threaded onto a string.
Once the votes are counted, if no one hits that two-thirds mark, the ballots are burned. If they need to signify "no winner," they add a chemical to the straw to make the smoke black. If someone hits the number, the smoke is white. Simple, right? Kinda.
What Happens if They Get Stuck?
Deadlocks are the stuff of history books. Back in the 1200s, there was an election that lasted nearly three years. The locals eventually got so annoyed they ripped the roof off the building to "encourage" the cardinals to hurry up.
We don't do that anymore.
Under the current rules established by Pope John Paul II in Universi Dominici Gregis and later tweaked by Benedict XVI, the procedure for a deadlock is specific. If after three days of voting there is no result, the cardinals take a break. A full day for prayer, "informal discussion," and—let's be real—probably some heavy-duty lobbying.
Then they go back at it. Seven more votes. Another break. Seven more. Another break.
Here is where it gets interesting. Under the old 1996 rules, they could eventually switch to a simple majority (50% + 1) if they were totally stuck. But Benedict XVI changed that back in 2007. He wanted to make sure the new pope had broad support. So now, even if they are stuck for weeks, they generally stay with the two-thirds requirement. They might move to a "runoff" between the two top candidates, but even then, that winner still needs a two-thirds majority to take the chair of St. Peter.
The People Who Actually Get to Vote
You can't just walk in and vote because you're a high-ranking priest. There’s a strict "age out" rule. Once a cardinal hits 80, they lose their right to enter the conclave.
Currently, the College of Cardinals is more diverse than it has ever been in history. Pope Francis spent years appointing electors from "the peripheries"—places like Mongolia, Tonga, and various countries across Africa and Southeast Asia.
- Europe: Still holds a large block, but no longer a guaranteed majority.
- Latin America: Huge growth here, obviously.
- The "Francis Effect": About 80% of the current voters were appointed by Francis, which significantly changes the vibe of the room compared to the conclaves of 2005 or 2013.
Why 135 Electors Matters for the Count
The "legal" limit for electors is supposed to be 120. That was set by Paul VI. However, popes often treat that number as more of a "suggestion." Francis pushed the number of electors up to 135 by early 2025.
When the number of voters changes, the math for how many votes for new pope changes with it.
If there are exactly 120 voters, you need 80.
If there are 135, you need 90.
Every single cardinal counts. If one gets sick and has to stay in his room at the Domus Sanctae Marthae (the hotel-like building where they stay), three "infirmarii" go to his room with a locked box to collect his ballot. They don't let a single vote go to waste.
Actionable Insights for Following a Conclave
If you're watching the Vatican news feed and waiting for the smoke, keep these things in mind to sound like an expert:
- Watch the timing: Smoke usually happens around 12:00 PM and 6:00 PM Rome time. If white smoke comes out early (like 10:30 AM or 5:00 PM), it means the pope was elected on the first ballot of that session.
- The "Third Day" Rule: If you see the voting go past the third day, expect a 24-hour pause. This is a sign of a "divided house" where no single candidate has a clear path to 90 votes.
- The Names to Watch: Look for "Papabile" (pope-able) candidates who bridge the gap between the conservative and progressive wings. In a two-thirds majority system, a "radical" candidate on either side rarely wins because they can't get the other side to move. The winner is almost always a consensus builder.
The process is designed to be slow. It's designed to be hard. By requiring so many votes, the Church tries to ensure that the man who emerges from the Sistine Chapel isn't just a winner by a hair, but someone the vast majority of the global leadership can get behind.
To stay updated on the current makeup of the College of Cardinals and the exact number of electors as it fluctuates, you should check the official Vatican Press Office bulletins or the "Sede Vacante" updates if an election is currently underway. These sources provide the only verified count of who is under the age of 80 and eligible to cast a ballot.