If you’re standing on the black, glass-like sands of the Big Island, it’s hard not to feel like you’re on the back of a sleeping giant. But how often do Hawaii volcanoes erupt, really? Honestly, if you’re looking for a single number, you’re not going to find it. Some of these mountains are basically tireless, while others have been "sleeping" since before your great-great-grandparents were born.
Right now, as of early 2026, Kīlauea is proving just how restless it can be. After a series of "fountaining" episodes that started back in December 2024, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) has been tracking a specific rhythm. We’ve seen about 40 distinct bursts of activity over the last year. It’s like the volcano is breathing. It inflates with magma, lets out a spectacular "gasp" of lava for about 12 hours, and then settles back down for a week or two.
The Constant Restlessness of Kīlauea
Kīlauea is the overachiever of the bunch. It’s one of the most active volcanoes on the entire planet. Between 1983 and 2018, it didn’t even really "stop" erupting—it just changed where the lava was coming out. That 35-year streak at the Puʻu ʻŌʻō vent redefined what we thought about volcanic frequency.
Historically, Kīlauea has covered about 90% of its surface in fresh lava within just the last 1,000 years. That is a blink of an eye in geologic time. Since the 1950s, it has erupted in every single decade. If you visit Hawaii Volcanoes National Park today, you’re looking at a landscape that is constantly being "repainted" by the earth itself.
Mauna Loa: The Big One Moves Slower
Then there’s Mauna Loa. This thing is massive. It makes up more than half of the Island of Hawaiʻi. Because it’s so big, it doesn’t go off as often as its smaller neighbor, but when it does, it’s a much bigger deal.
Before 1950, Mauna Loa was actually pretty busy, erupting roughly every 3.5 years. But then it just... quieted down. It went 38 years without a peep before the 2022 eruption. Scientists noticed that while the frequency has dropped over the last 75 years, the volume of magma moving underneath is still significant. It’s not "dead" by any means. It’s just taking longer breaks between its high-volume performances.
Why the Gaps Matter
You’ve probably heard people say a volcano is "due." Geologists kinda hate that word. Volcanoes don’t follow a calendar. They follow pressure.
- Short-term frequency: Kīlauea (Weeks to months)
- Medium-term frequency: Mauna Loa (Decades)
- Long-term frequency: Hualālai (Centuries)
Hualālai, which sits right behind the tourist hubs in Kona, last erupted in 1801. That feels like forever ago, but in the life of a shield volcano, it’s still considered very active. The USGS actually ranks it as a "High Threat" because if it does go, it’s right in the middle of where everyone lives.
What’s Happening on the Other Islands?
If you’re on Maui, you’re looking at Haleakalā. People call it "dormant," but that’s a bit of a misnomer. It’s "active but resting." It has erupted at least ten times in the last 1,000 years. The last time it sent lava down to the sea was roughly 400 to 600 years ago.
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Maui isn't growing anymore, but it isn't finished either. The probability of an eruption there is low for any given year, but it’s definitely not zero. Contrast that with Oahu or Kauai, where the volcanoes are truly extinct. On those islands, the "hotspot" that fuels the fire has moved on. The islands are now just eroding away into the Pacific.
Surviving the Hype: Is it Safe?
Honestly, the way the news covers these things can be pretty misleading. When Kīlauea erupts, national headlines make it sound like the whole island is on fire. It's usually not. Most of the time, the activity is confined to the summit caldera—a giant bowl in the ground—where it stays away from people.
The real danger happens when the eruption moves into the "Rift Zones." These are the cracks that run down the sides of the mountain. In 2018, the lava moved into a residential neighborhood (Leilani Estates), and that was devastating. But even then, it affected a tiny percentage of the island's landmass.
Actionable Steps for Your Next Visit
If you're planning a trip and want to know if you'll see "the red stuff," here is how you actually track it like a local:
- Check the USGS HVO Daily Update: This is the gold standard. They post every morning around 9:00 AM HST. If the "Alert Level" is at WATCH or WARNING, something is happening.
- Monitor the Tiltmeters: Look at the UWD tiltmeter graphs on the USGS site. When that line shoots up, the volcano is inflating like a balloon. When it drops suddenly, lava is likely moving or fountaining.
- National Park Webcams: Don’t trust old YouTube videos. The NPS has live webcams at the Halemaʻumaʻu summit. If you see a glow at night, get your hiking boots ready.
- Respect the Vog: Volcanic gas (SO2) can be harder on you than the lava itself. If you have asthma, check the "Vog Forecast" before heading to the summit.
The next fountaining episode at Kīlauea is currently projected by experts to happen between January 20 and 25, 2026. This is based on the current inflation rates and the "episodic" pattern the volcano has settled into. Whether you see a lava lake or just a smoking crater, remember you're standing on the only place on Earth that's still under construction. Stay on the marked trails, keep your distance from the steam vents, and let the mountain do its thing.