Honestly, if you’d asked me a couple of years ago about how to bet on the US election, I would have told you to be careful. Back then, it was a messy legal gray area filled with offshore sites and confusing workarounds.
But things are different now.
In the last year or so, the floodgates basically burst open. Thanks to a series of court battles and some massive shifts in how the government looks at "event contracts," betting on who wins the White House or controls the Senate has moved from the shadows into the mainstream. You’ve got billion-dollar companies like Robinhood and Kalshi now offering these markets directly to Americans. It’s wild.
If you’re looking to get some skin in the game, you aren't just looking for a sportsbook anymore. You’re looking for a "prediction market."
How to Bet on the US Election Using Modern Prediction Markets
So, how does this actually work? It’s not like betting on the Super Bowl where you see +150 odds. Instead, you’re trading "contracts." Think of it like a stock. Each contract is worth somewhere between $0.01 and $0.99.
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If you buy a "Yes" contract for a candidate at $0.60, the market is basically saying there's a 60% chance they win. If they do win, that contract instantly becomes worth $1.00. You pocket the $0.40 profit. If they lose, it goes to zero. You can sell your contract at any time before the election too. If your candidate’s polling numbers spike and the price jumps to $0.80, you can cash out early and take the win without waiting for Election Day.
It's efficient. It’s fast. And it’s surprisingly addictive.
The Big Players: Where to Put Your Money
You have a few real choices now, and they each have a different "vibe."
Kalshi is the one that really fought the legal battles for us. They are based in the US and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Because they are "official," you just link your bank account, and you're good to go. It feels very corporate and safe.
Polymarket is the giant in the room. They handle billions of dollars in volume. For a long time, they were blocked in the US, but they’ve made a massive comeback recently after getting cleared to operate via regulated brokers. They use crypto (specifically USDC) for a lot of their backend, but honestly, you can often just use a debit card now.
Robinhood and Interactive Brokers are the newest kids on the block. Since most people already have a Robinhood account for stocks, it’s arguably the easiest way to start. They’ve partnered with an exchange called ForecastEx to let you buy these election contracts right next to your Apple or Tesla shares.
Is Betting on the US Election Actually Legal Now?
This is the part that still trips people up. For decades, the CFTC tried to ban this, calling it "contrary to the public interest." They basically thought it would lead to people bribing voters or rigging polls.
Then 2024 happened.
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Kalshi sued the CFTC and won a landmark case in federal court. The judges basically said the government didn't have the authority to stop these "event contracts" just because they involved politics. Since then, the environment has shifted. Even the current administration has been more hands-off, with some of the president's own family members taking advisory roles at these betting platforms.
However, state laws are still a bit of a patchwork. While the federal government might be okay with it, some states like North Carolina have old statutes on the books that technically still say betting on an election is a misdemeanor. Most people ignore these because the sites are federally regulated, but it's worth knowing that the "legality" can feel different depending on where your feet are planted.
Why the "Wisdom of Crowds" Matters
People love these markets because they are often more accurate than polls. Why? Because people are putting their actual money on the line.
When a pollster calls you, you might lie or give a "protest" answer. When you’re putting $5,000 on a candidate, you’re usually trying to be right, not just loyal. Experts like Koleman Strumpf from Wake Forest University have pointed out that these markets react to news in seconds, whereas a poll takes days to conduct and release.
But don't treat it as a crystal ball. A recent study from Vanderbilt University found that while markets like PredictIt have been pretty accurate (around 93% in their study), larger platforms like Polymarket have actually struggled more with accuracy because of "herd behavior." Sometimes a big "whale" (a trader with millions of dollars) can move the price just by buying a ton of contracts, making a candidate look like a sure thing when they really aren't.
Practical Tips for Your First Election Bet
If you’re ready to jump in, don’t just bet on who you want to win. That’s the fastest way to lose money.
- Watch the "Bid-Ask Spread": This is the gap between what people are buying and selling for. If the gap is huge, you’re losing money the moment you buy. Look for high-volume markets where the gap is just a penny.
- Arbitrage is real: Sometimes a candidate might be trading at $0.55 on Kalshi but $0.58 on Polymarket. Professional traders make a living just moving money between platforms to catch these tiny differences.
- Hedge your life: Some people bet against their own candidate. That way, if your candidate loses and you're miserable about the state of the country, at least you have a fat check coming your way to soften the blow.
Setting Up Your Account
Getting started is pretty straightforward. You’ll need to provide your Social Security number and link a bank account—standard stuff for any financial app in 2026.
- Pick your platform: Choose Kalshi for pure regulation, Polymarket for the best liquidity, or Robinhood for ease of use.
- Verify your ID: You can’t be anonymous on the US-regulated versions. They need to know you're a real person.
- Deposit funds: Most apps take instant transfers now.
- Find the "Event": Search for "2028 Presidential Election" or "Senate Control."
- Place your trade: Decide how many "shares" you want. Each share pays out exactly $1.00 if you're right.
Next Steps for You
- Compare the platforms: Check the current "Yes" price for the 2028 Democratic Nominee on both Kalshi and Robinhood to see which has the better entry price today.
- Monitor the volume: Look at the "Total Volume" on Polymarket for the next big Congressional race; high volume usually means the price is a more "honest" reflection of reality.
- Set a limit: Before you deposit, decide on a "loss limit"—a specific dollar amount you are comfortable losing entirely—since these contracts can and do go to zero instantly.