So, you're checking on the Dow. Honestly, it’s been a weird start to 2026. If you looked at your screen on Friday, January 16, you saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average sitting at 49,359.33. It’s basically knocking on the door of 50,000, which sounds absolutely insane if you remember where we were just a few years ago.
But here’s the thing. Even though we’re near record highs, the index actually slipped about 83 points on Friday. A tiny 0.17% drop. It’s not a crash, obviously. It’s more like a heavy sigh after a really long run.
What happened during the last session?
Markets are closed today, Sunday, January 18, so we're all just sitting around digesting the Friday data. The day was a bit of a seesaw. We saw a high of 49,616.70 and a low of 49,246.24. If you’re a day trader, that’s enough of a swing to make your coffee go cold while you stare at the candles.
The "Santa Claus rally" we usually expect at the end of December into January sorta fizzled this year. It wasn't the explosive fireworks show people wanted. Instead, we’re seeing this massive "rotation." That’s just Wall Street speak for investors getting bored with overpriced Big Tech and moving their money into "boring" stuff like banks and industrial companies.
Hows the dow today and why the 50k mark feels heavy
Everyone is obsessed with 50,000. It’s a big, round number. Psychologically, it’s a wall. We’ve been flirting with it all month, but every time the Dow gets close, traders seem to get cold feet and start selling.
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You've got to look at the players involved. On Friday, IBM was a total rockstar, jumping 2.59% to end at $305.67. Honeywell also had a great day, up 2.03% because J.P. Morgan upgraded them to a "Buy." When the big industrial names are moving like that, it tells you that people are looking for safety and real earnings, not just AI hype.
On the flip side, Salesforce took a 2.75% hit. UnitedHealth also dragged the index down, dropping 2.34%. Since the Dow is price-weighted—which is a kinda quirky, old-school way to run an index—big price moves in stocks like UnitedHealth ($331) matter way more than moves in Nike ($64).
The Buffett Warning
It’s worth mentioning that the "Buffett Indicator" is currently screaming. This is the ratio of the total stock market value to the GDP. Warren Buffett famously called it the best single measure of where valuations stand. Right now? It’s high. Really high.
Does that mean a crash is coming tomorrow? No.
But it does mean the "easy money" has probably been made. We’re in a phase where you actually have to be smart about what you buy. You can't just throw a dart at a board and get 20% returns anymore.
Inflation and the Fed's next move
We just got the December CPI data a few days ago. Inflation is sitting around 2.7%. It’s not the 9% nightmare we had a few years back, but it's "sticky." It just won't go down to that 2% goal the Federal Reserve obsesses over.
Jerome Powell—who is nearing the end of his term in May 2026—is being super cautious. The Fed cut rates by 0.25% back in December, bringing them to the 3.50%-3.75% range. But now, they're signaling a "higher bar" for more cuts. Basically, they're saying, "Don't get greedy."
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The market hates uncertainty. We’re also dealing with the lingering effects of the 43-day government shutdown that ended in late 2025. Federal workers are still catching up on economic reports that were delayed, so we're flying a bit blind on things like retail sales and housing starts.
Corporate earnings are the real story
We’re right in the middle of earnings season. This is when companies have to put their money where their mouth is.
- JPMorgan Chase: Reported solid results, up 1.04% on Friday.
- PNC Financial: Jumped 3.8% after beating targets.
- Intel and AMD: These two have been volatile. Chipmakers are still the engine of the market, but investors are starting to ask: "Okay, we bought all these AI chips... now where's the profit?"
If companies keep beating expectations, the Dow will probably punch through 50,000 by February. If they miss? We might be headed back toward 47,000 for a "healthy correction."
The Trump Factor in 2026
It’s the second year of President Trump’s second term. Historically, the second year of a presidency can be a bit rocky for the markets. We’re seeing a lot of talk about tariffs—the "Liberation Day" levies—and the Supreme Court is currently mulling over whether they're even legal.
Trade wars are usually bad for the Dow because so many of the 30 companies in the index (like Boeing, Caterpillar, and Apple) rely on global supply chains. If it gets harder to move parts across borders, costs go up, and margins go down. It's that simple.
Practical steps for your portfolio right now
If you’re staring at the "hows the dow today" headlines and feeling a bit overwhelmed, don't panic. Here is what the pros are actually doing:
- Check your weight: If your tech stocks have grown so much that they now make up 80% of your portfolio, it might be time to sell a little bit and buy some "boring" stuff like healthcare or utilities.
- Watch the 10-year Treasury: It’s hovering around 4.19%. If this yield starts spiking toward 4.5% or 5%, it usually sucks the air out of the stock market because investors can get a decent return from "safe" bonds instead of risky stocks.
- Keep some cash: With the Dow at nearly 50,000, keep a little "dry powder" on the sidelines. If we do get a 5% or 10% dip, you want to be the person buying the discount, not the person selling in a panic.
- Ignore the "crash" gurus: You'll see plenty of YouTube thumbnails with people screaming about a market collapse. Usually, they've predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions. Stick to the data: earnings are still growing, and the Fed is still in an easing cycle, even if it's slow.
Tomorrow morning, Monday, January 19, is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so the markets will stay closed. You've got an extra day to breathe and look at your strategy before the opening bell on Tuesday.
Keep an eye on the VIX (the volatility index). It’s currently at 15.86, which is relatively low. As long as that stays below 20, the "hows the dow today" answer will likely remain "mostly fine, just a bit tired."
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Actions to take this week
Review your automated contributions. If the market is at an all-time high, you might want to ensure you aren't over-leveraged in a single sector like semiconductors. Look into diversifying into mid-cap stocks; the Russell 2000 has been showing some interesting life lately, gaining 0.12% while the Dow slipped. This suggests that the "breadth" of the market—how many different stocks are actually going up—is finally improving. That’s a good sign for long-term health.
Check the earnings calendar for the upcoming week. If you own individual stocks in the Dow, find out exactly when they report. A surprise miss can drop a stock 10% in minutes in this environment.