When Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) first announced its plan to swallow Juniper Networks for $14 billion back in early 2024, people in the tech world mostly saw it as a desperate, massive bet on AI networking. It was HPE trying to finally have the muscle to punch back at Cisco. But by the time we hit January 2026, the HPE Juniper antitrust settlement inquiry has morphed into something way more complicated than a simple corporate merger.
It’s messy. Honestly, it’s one of those stories where the more you dig, the more you find layers of political drama, backroom lobbying allegations, and a group of very angry state attorneys general who think the public got a raw deal.
You’ve probably seen the headlines. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) initially sued to block the deal in January 2025, claiming it would lead to a "duopoly" where Cisco and the new HPE-Juniper entity would control over 70% of the market. Then, in a whiplash-inducing pivot, the DOJ settled on the eve of the trial in June 2025.
That sudden U-turn is exactly why we're still talking about this inquiry today.
The Settlement That Raised a Thousand Eyebrows
The deal that let the merger proceed wasn't a total "get out of jail free" card, but many critics argue it was close. To satisfy the DOJ, HPE agreed to sell off its "Instant On" campus and branch business. This is basically the gear used by smaller businesses and branch offices.
On top of that, Juniper had to agree to an auction. They had to license out the source code for their crown jewel: Mist AI.
Mist is the "magic" in Juniper's portfolio. It’s the AIOps (Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations) that makes their networking hardware actually smart. The settlement forced them to license this code to two winning bidders.
But here’s the kicker. While the DOJ called this a "novel" and "structural" remedy, a lot of people—including the American Economic Liberties Project—called it "woefully inadequate." They argued that selling off a small branch business (Instant On) does almost nothing to stop the combined company from dominating the high-end enterprise market.
Why the States Aren't Letting Go
This is where the HPE Juniper antitrust settlement inquiry gets spicy. In late 2025, California Attorney General Rob Bonta, along with a dozen other states like Colorado, decided they weren't going to just sit there and watch.
They intervened.
They filed a motion to get involved in the Tunney Act review. For those who aren't antitrust nerds, the Tunney Act is the law that requires a federal judge to decide if a DOJ settlement is actually in the "public interest."
Bonta and Colorado’s Phil Weiser have been vocal about some pretty serious allegations. They’ve pointed to reports of "backroom dealings" and suggested that high-level political appointees pushed the settlement through even though the actual trial staff at the DOJ wanted to keep fighting.
They’re basically asking: Was this a fair settlement based on the law, or was it "pay-to-play" enforcement?
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The Core of the Inquiry
- Lobbying Allegations: Rumors have swirled about individuals with close ties to the administration whispering in the ears of top DOJ officials.
- The Firing of Dissenters: Reports surfaced that two senior Antitrust Division attorneys were allegedly shown the door because they wouldn't get on board with the settlement.
- The Mist AI License: There are huge questions about whether a source-code license is actually enough to create a real competitor. You can have the code, but do you have the 15 years of data and the engineering team to make it work?
What Most People Get Wrong About the Merger
A common misconception is that this is just about "routers and switches." It's not.
This is about the "brain" of the network. If you've ever worked in a big office or a hospital, you know that the Wi-Fi isn't just a box on the wall. It’s a massive software system that predicts when a connection is going to drop and fixes it before you even notice.
By merging, HPE (through Aruba) and Juniper (through Mist) essentially combined two of the three best "brains" in the business.
The European Commission and the UK’s CMA actually cleared the deal earlier, arguing that HPE and Juniper weren't "closest competitors" in their specific regions. They saw Cisco as the big bad wolf and thought a stronger HPE might actually help.
But the U.S. market is different. The concentration here is much higher. That’s why the HPE Juniper antitrust settlement inquiry is such a massive deal on this side of the Atlantic. It’s a test case for whether "behavioral remedies" (like licensing code) are a legitimate way to fix a concentrated market or just a way for big companies to buy their way out of trouble.
The Reality for Businesses Today
If you're an IT director or a CTO, you're probably caught in the middle of this. On one hand, Antonio Neri (HPE’s CEO) is promising a "new HPE" that’s an AI powerhouse. He wants to give you a single dashboard for everything from your data center to your edge devices.
On the other hand, there’s a real risk of "vendor lock-in."
If the states manage to win their inquiry and force more divestitures—or, in a wild scenario, try to undo the merger—it could create a mess for customers who have already started integrating these systems.
Currently, HPE is moving forward with the "Instant On" sale. They have a 180-day window from the final judgment to find a buyer. If they don't, a court-appointed trustee takes over the keys.
Actionable Insights for the Path Ahead
The dust hasn't settled yet. Even though the companies are technically merging, the ongoing inquiry means the "final" version of this company might look different in a year.
Watch the "Instant On" Buyer
Keep a close eye on who buys HPE's Instant On business. If it’s a strong player like Arista or a well-funded startup, it might actually provide the competition the DOJ claims to want. If it’s a private equity firm looking to strip the assets, the critics were probably right.
Demand Interoperability
If you're buying networking gear now, don't just take the "it all works together" sales pitch. Ask for specific guarantees on how Juniper's Mist AI will integrate with legacy Aruba gear and, more importantly, how easy it is to move your data out if you need to switch vendors later.
Monitor the State Court Filings
The next big milestone is the judge’s ruling on the states’ intervention. If Judge P. Casey Pitts allows a full evidentiary hearing into the "lobbying" allegations, expect some very uncomfortable emails and memos to become public. That could stall the integration process for months.
Audit Your AI Networking Strategy
Don't wait for the settlement drama to end. Evaluate whether you actually need the full Mist/Aruba stack or if the licensed versions of Mist (which should be hitting the market soon via the winning bidders) offer a better value without the baggage of the merger.
The HPE Juniper antitrust settlement inquiry is a reminder that in the world of big tech, the deal is never really done until the last lawyer leaves the room. For now, the merger is proceeding, but it's doing so under a very large, very legal microscope.