The regular season is officially in the rearview mirror, and honestly, if the NFL playoffs started today—which they technically do, given we just wrapped Week 18—the bracket looks absolutely nothing like what we expected back in August. Seriously. Look at the AFC. The Kansas City Chiefs aren't even in the building. For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the road to the Super Bowl doesn't go through Arrowhead. It goes through the thin air of Denver and the rejuvenation project in New England.
Wild.
We just saw a Wild Card weekend that felt more like a fever dream than a football tournament. The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are already out. Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin might have just walked off the field together for the last time in Pittsburgh. If you’re trying to make sense of the "Elite Eight" left standing, you’re not alone. It’s a mix of rookie phenoms like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye and the steady, gritty veterans who refuse to go away.
Breaking Down the AFC: If the NFL Playoffs Started Today
Denver is the king of the mountain. Sean Payton actually did it. The Broncos finished 14-3, grabbed the No. 1 seed, and earned that precious bye week. While everyone else was beating each other up over the weekend, Denver was sitting at home watching the chaos unfold at Mile High.
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The New England Patriots are the No. 2 seed, which feels like a glitch in the matrix given where they were a couple of years ago. Drake Maye looks like the real deal. They handled the Chargers 16-3 in a game that was essentially a defensive masterclass. It wasn't pretty, but it was effective.
Then you have the Houston Texans. They didn't just beat the Steelers; they embarrassed them. A 30-6 drubbing in Pittsburgh? That’s the kind of result that gets coaches fired, and sure enough, Mike Tomlin is stepping down. It’s the end of an era. Houston moves on to face New England in the Divisional Round, and if C.J. Stroud plays like he did on Monday night, the Patriots are in for a long afternoon at Gillette Stadium.
The AFC Matchups Moving Forward
- (6) Buffalo Bills at (1) Denver Broncos: The Bills barely survived Jacksonville, winning 27-24. Now they have to go to Denver. Josh Allen against that Broncos secondary is going to be the game of the week.
- (5) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots: A battle of the young QBs. Stroud vs. Maye. It’s the matchup the NFL’s marketing department probably spent all night dreaming about.
The NFC Side: Chaos in the North and West
Seattle is the top dog here. 14-3. Home-field advantage throughout. Lumen Field is going to be deafening. But the real story in the NFC is the Chicago Bears.
Chicago snagged the No. 2 seed despite losing to Detroit in the final week—thank the Commanders for beating the Eagles and doing the Bears a massive favor. Then, they had to face their arch-rivals, the Green Bay Packers, in the Wild Card round. Talk about stress. The Bears trailed by 11 with five minutes left. Five minutes! Caleb Williams engineered a comeback for the ages, winning 31-27 and sending the Packers home in what might be the most "Bears" win in thirty years.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers went into Philly and knocked off the defending champs. The Eagles' defense just looked tired. Watching the Niners grind out a 23-19 win in the rain felt like old-school playoff football. Now, the 49ers have to travel to Seattle for a divisional showdown that feels like a toss-up.
The NFC Divisional Slate
- (6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Seattle Seahawks: This is a bloodbath waiting to happen. These teams hate each other.
- (5) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Chicago Bears: Matthew Stafford against the "Cardiac Bears." Stafford just led the Rams to a 34-31 win over Carolina, and he looks like he's 25 again.
What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Bracket
People keep talking about "pedigree." They say you can't bet against the teams that have been there before. But look at who is gone. The Chiefs. The Eagles. The Jaguars. The teams left are the ones who got hot in December and stayed healthy.
There's no clear-cut favorite. The Seattle Seahawks have the best odds right now, sitting around +300, but the Rams are right behind them. Even the Texans are getting "dark horse" love from the Vegas sharps. If the NFL playoffs started today—and continued into this weekend's Divisional Round—you’d be a fool to put your life savings on any one team.
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The parity is actually insane. Every single team remaining has at least a 10% chance to win the whole thing according to the latest analytics. We haven't seen a field this wide open in a decade.
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you're following the action this weekend, keep an eye on the injury reports for the Broncos. Playing in that altitude is hard enough, but if their secondary isn't at 100%, Josh Allen will carve them up.
For the NFC, watch the weather in Chicago. It’s looking like it might be one of those classic "Frozen Tundra" games (even if it's at Soldier Field). Matthew Stafford has the arm for it, but the Bears' run game has been the secret sauce for their success lately.
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- Check the lines early: The 49ers are road dogs in Seattle, which seems disrespectful given how they played in Philly.
- Watch the QB matchups: We are seeing a literal passing of the torch. Rodgers is out. Mahomes is out. It’s the year of Stroud, Williams, and Maye.
- Home field matters: Seattle and Denver have the most distinct home-field advantages in the league. There's a reason they are the 1-seeds.
The road to Santa Clara and Super Bowl LX is narrowing. By Sunday night, we'll be down to the final four. Grab some wings and settle in, because this season is refusing to be predictable.
To stay on top of the moving parts this weekend, monitor the active roster status for the Houston Texans' offensive line, as their ability to protect Stroud against the New England pass rush will likely decide the AFC representative in the championship game. Additionally, track the ticket secondary market trends for Lumen Field; the "12th Man" factor is currently projected to be at record decibel levels for the 49ers' arrival. Finally, review the head-to-head regular-season stats between the Rams and Bears, specifically focusing on red-zone efficiency, which has been the deciding factor in Caleb Williams' recent comeback victories.