Rebecca Yarros didn't just stumble into the spotlight with dragons. Long before Fourth Wing became a global phenomenon, she was carving out a very specific niche in contemporary romance—the kind that makes you feel like your heart is being put through a paper shredder. In the Likely Event is perhaps the peak of that pre-dragon era. It’s a book that starts with a literal plane crash and somehow gets more intense from there.
Most people coming to this book today are chasing the "Yarros High." They want the high stakes. They want the "us against the world" energy. Honestly, this book delivers that, but it does it through a grounded, gritty lens that feels a lot more personal than a fantasy epic. It’s about Izzy Astor and Nate Phelan, two people who meet on a flight that goes horribly wrong.
They survive. But surviving is just the beginning of the problem.
The Chaos of In the Likely Event
The story jumps around. We get the "then" and the "now," a narrative device Yarros uses to keep you leaning in. Ten years ago, they were strangers on a plane. Today, Nate is a Special Forces protector assigned to keep Izzy safe in a high-risk setting. It’s a classic "forced proximity" trope, but it doesn't feel cheap because the shared trauma of that crash anchors everything they do.
I've talked to readers who found the back-and-forth timeline a bit dizzying at first. I get it. You’re trying to figure out why they stayed apart for a decade if the connection was that electric. Yarros is a master of the "thwarted longing" vibe. She knows exactly how to pull them apart using realistic obstacles—military deployments, career ambitions, and the simple, crushing weight of timing.
The plane crash itself isn't just a plot point. It’s a character. It sits in the room with them ten years later. When you read In the Likely Event, you aren't just reading a romance; you’re reading a study on how a single moment of terror can fuse two souls together while simultaneously making it impossible for them to live a "normal" life.
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Why Nate Phelan Isn't Your Average Hero
Nate is complicated. He’s military, which Yarros writes with a level of authenticity most romance authors miss. This makes sense—she’s a military spouse herself. She knows the lingo, the gear, and the specific brand of exhaustion that comes with that life.
Nate isn’t just some brooding guy with a gun. He’s a guy who carries the guilt of survival. He’s protective, yeah, but it’s a desperate kind of protection. He failed to keep his world together after the crash, so he’s determined not to fail Izzy now.
Izzy, on the other hand, is a force. She’s not a damsel waiting to be plucked from the wreckage. She’s ambitious. She’s smart. She’s trying to navigate a world that expects her to be one thing while she feels like another. Their chemistry works because it isn't based on "insta-love" in the traditional sense; it’s based on "insta-survival."
The Controversy of the "Yarros Formula"
Let’s be real for a second. Some critics argue that Yarros leans too hard into the melodrama. They say the coincidences in In the Likely Event are a bit much. A plane crash and a high-stakes protection detail ten years later? It’s a lot.
But that’s kind of the point of a Yarros novel.
You don't pick up a book like this for a slice-of-life story about a girl who works in a bakery and meets a nice accountant. You pick it up because you want the stakes to be life or death. You want the emotional volume turned up to eleven. If you can suspend your disbelief about the statistical probability of these two people crossing paths again in a war zone, the payoff is massive.
The prose is fast. Some sentences are short. Punchy. Like a heartbeat.
Then she’ll hit you with a paragraph that’s a deep dive into the psychology of grief. This isn't "airport fiction" even if it starts at an airport. It’s weightier than that.
Breaking Down the "Then vs. Now" Structure
The 2023 release of this book saw it fly up the charts, largely because the dual-timeline format is incredibly addictive. In the "Then" sections, we see the raw, unpolished version of Nate and Izzy. They are kids, basically. In the "Now" sections, we see the armor they’ve built.
- The Meeting: Missouri, 2013. A crowded plane. A chance encounter.
- The Catalyst: The crash into the Missouri River. This is visceral writing. You can almost smell the jet fuel.
- The Gap: Years of "almosts." Letters, missed calls, and the lingering "what if."
- The Reunion: Afghanistan. The stakes have shifted from personal survival to professional duty.
It’s interesting to watch how Izzy’s political career aspirations clash with Nate’s military reality. It’s a classic conflict—love versus duty—but it’s handled with a lot of nuance. You actually care about Izzy’s work. You actually understand why Nate can’t just walk away from his team.
How In the Likely Event Compares to Fourth Wing
If you came here from the Empyrean series, you might be surprised. There are no dragons here. No magic. But the soul of the writing is the same.
Nate Phelan has a lot of Xaden Riorson in him. He’s disciplined, protective, and carries a secret soft spot for exactly one person. Izzy has that Violet Sorrengail grit—the "I might be breakable, but I won't break" attitude.
The main difference is the setting. By stripping away the fantasy elements, Yarros forces the characters to rely on their dialogue and their history. There’s no "bond" to explain why they feel this way. It’s just them. And honestly? Sometimes that’s more romantic than a telepathic dragon connection.
The Realism of Trauma
One thing people often overlook in In the Likely Event is how it treats PTSD. It’s not just a "quirk" Nate has. It’s something both characters deal with. The way Yarros describes the sensory triggers—the sound of a roaring engine, the feeling of cold water—is incredibly effective.
It reminds us that survivors don't just walk away from a crash. They carry it. This adds a layer of "E-E-A-T" (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, and Trustworthiness) to the narrative. Yarros isn't guessing what this feels like; she’s drawing from a well of lived experience within the military community where trauma is a daily reality.
Actionable Takeaways for Readers and Aspiring Writers
Whether you’re a fan or a writer trying to figure out how Yarros does it, there are a few things to keep in mind about this book’s success.
For the Readers:
Don't go into this expecting a light summer read. It’s heavy. If you’re a fan of the "soulmates separated by fate" trope, this is your holy grail. Also, keep some tissues nearby for the final third of the book. The emotional payoff is earned, but it’s a bumpy ride getting there.
For the Writers:
Study the pacing. Notice how Yarros uses the plane crash to establish an immediate, unbreakable bond. She doesn't spend 50 pages on "getting to know you." She throws them into a meat grinder and lets their reactions define their characters. That’s how you hook a reader in 2026.
For the Skeptics:
Give it a chance based on the character work alone. Even if you find the plot "convenient," the dialogue is sharp and the emotional stakes feel genuine. It’s a masterclass in contemporary romantic suspense.
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Next Steps to Maximize Your Reading Experience
- Check out the audiobook: The dual narration for Nate and Izzy adds a layer of intimacy that makes the "Then/Now" transitions even smoother.
- Read Yarros’s backlist: If you like the military realism here, look into The Last Letter or the Flight & Glory series. They share that same "heart-shattering" DNA.
- Analyze the themes: Look for the "Golden Thread" in the story—the idea that some people are destined to be anchors for one another, regardless of how much time passes.
In the Likely Event remains a standout because it doesn't shy away from the messiness of life. It’s a book about the fact that sometimes, the most terrifying thing isn't falling from the sky—it's the risk of letting someone in after you've already been broken.