Investing in medical technology is usually a roller coaster, but Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) has been more like a high-speed tilt-a-whirl lately. One day everyone is shouting about a massive Medicare win, and the next, the stock is taking a breather because the 2026 growth forecast wasn't "explosive" enough. Honestly, if you've been watching the tickers, it’s easy to get lost in the noise of class-action lawsuits and CFO swaps.
The reality? Most people focus on the wrong metrics.
The Massive 2026 Reimbursement Shift
Here is the thing. In late 2025, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) dropped a bombshell that basically rewritten the financial story for Inspire. Starting January 1, 2026, the facility fees for the Inspire procedure are set to jump by nearly $10,000.
At hospitals, we’re talking about a leap from around $30,500 to roughly **$45,000**. Ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) see a similar spike, going from $26,800 to about $42,400. That is huge. It’s not just a "nice to have" update; it changes the entire incentive structure for the centers that actually do the surgeries.
Why does this matter for the Inspire Medical Systems stock?
Because management, being the cautious bunch they are, didn’t even include this upside in their initial 2026 revenue guidance. When they recently projected $1.003 billion to $1.013 billion in revenue for 2026—representing about 10% to 11% growth—they left the potential price increases on the table. They’re basically waiting for the dust to settle on coding before they count those chickens.
The Inspire V Transition: A Messy Evolution
The company is currently moving from the Inspire IV to the Inspire V system. If you want to know why the stock hasn't mooned yet, look at this transition. It’s been clunky.
Lawsuits have literally been flying, with some investors claiming the company wasn't upfront about how long it would take to get centers trained and IT systems updated for the new device. In August 2025, we saw a massive 32% crash in the stock price after a guidance cut that felt like a punch in the gut.
But if you look at the clinical data, the tech itself is winning.
👉 See also: Why BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc Stock Is Finally Getting Interesting Again
- Surgical Time: Inspire V reduces surgery time by about 20%.
- Patient Adherence: Data shows patients are using the device for over six hours a night.
- Clinical Success: The median reduction in the Apnea Hypopnea Index (AHI) went from 34.4 events per hour down to just 8.3.
Basically, the tech is doing exactly what it's supposed to do. The bottleneck isn't the device; it's the paperwork and the training. Tim Herbert, the CEO, recently mentioned that the "great majority" of centers finished their transition by the end of 2025. That sets up 2026 to be the first year where they’re firing on all cylinders with the new hardware.
Is the GLP-1 Fear Real?
You can’t talk about sleep apnea stocks without mentioning Ozempic and Zepbound. The "GLP-1 threat" has been the boogeyman for INSP for two years now. The logic is simple: if people lose weight, their sleep apnea goes away, and they don't need a $40,000 implant.
It’s a bit of an oversimplification.
First, even if you lose the weight, structural issues in the throat often remain. Second, Inspire is actually seeing these drugs as a top-of-funnel driver. People start taking weight loss drugs, they get healthier, and they finally decide to deal with their snoring and exhaustion. They end up in a sleep lab, and since many still can’t tolerate the CPAP "Darth Vader" mask, they get referred for Inspire.
What the Analysts are Whispering
Wall Street is currently split between "cautious optimism" and "aggressive buying."
- RBC Capital recently lowered their target to $125 but kept an Outperform rating.
- Piper Sandler is sitting at a $135 target.
- Mizuho and Morgan Stanley have historically been much more bullish, with some targets previously stretching toward $250, though those have been reeled in as growth slowed to the low double digits.
Currently, the stock is trading around the $93 to $98 range. With a 52-week high of over $203, there’s a lot of room to run if they beat that 11% growth target. And let’s be real—the new CFO, Matt Osberg, has his work cut out for him to convince the street that the "transition year" is finally over.
🔗 Read more: American Tariffs on China: What Really Happened This Week
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you’re looking at Inspire Medical Systems stock, you need to stop watching the daily price swings and look at three specific triggers.
First, watch for the Q1 2026 earnings report (usually in early May). This will be the first time we see if the increased Medicare reimbursement rates are actually translating into higher margins. If the gross margin—which is already a healthy 85.8%—ticks up even higher, the "undervalued" narrative starts to look very real.
Second, keep an eye on the Nyxoah competitive entry. They just got FDA approval for a similar implant. For years, Inspire had zero competition. Now they have a rival. If Nyxoah struggles to get insurance coverage, it proves Inspire’s "moat" is actually their relationships with insurers, not just the battery in the chest.
Finally, ignore the lawsuit headlines unless there’s a massive settlement. Most of these class actions are standard procedure after a 30% stock drop. The real story is in the procedure volume. If the number of implants continues to grow at 10%+, the company is on track to hit that billion-dollar revenue milestone this year.
📖 Related: How Much is MSNBC for Sale For: The Reality of the Versant Spinoff
Next Steps for Investors:
- Check your exposure to "high-growth medtech." If you’re already heavy on ResMed, INSP might be a redundant play on the same patient demographic.
- Verify the current RSI (Relative Strength Index). As of mid-January 2026, it was hovering around 35-40, which suggests the stock is closer to "oversold" than "overbought."
- Listen to the next earnings call specifically for comments on "recontracting." If hospitals aren't signing the new higher-priced contracts quickly, that 2026 revenue jump might be delayed until the back half of the year.