Bitcoin is currently hovering around $95,500. For some, that’s a terrifying height. For others, it’s just the base camp before a trek to six figures. If you're asking if Bitcoin is going to keep going up, you aren't alone—everyone from Wall Street suits to the guy at the local coffee shop is staring at the same green and red candles right now.
Honestly, the "is it too late?" panic is a rite of passage in crypto. But 2026 isn't 2021. The rules of the game have fundamentally shifted. We aren't just dealing with retail "moon boys" anymore; we're dealing with sovereign nations and trillion-dollar asset managers.
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The Death of the Four-Year Cycle?
For a decade, we lived by the "Halving Cycle." It was simple: Bitcoin halves its supply every four years, and like clockwork, a massive bull run follows 12 to 18 months later. Following that logic, the April 2024 halving should have us peaking right about... now.
But here’s the kicker. The old 4-year rhythm is looking a bit ragged. In 2024, Bitcoin hit an all-time high before the halving happened, which had never occurred in history.
Many analysts, including the team at Grayscale Research, now believe we are entering a "sustained bull market" that might actually break the cycle of 80% crashes. Why? Because the supply on exchanges is at its lowest level since 2018. When BlackRock and Fidelity buy BTC for their ETFs, they aren't day-trading it. They’re locking it away. This "supply shock" is a slow-motion car crash for anyone waiting for the price to drop back to $30,000.
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What the Experts Are Actually Saying
It's easy to find a "price prediction" on social media. It's harder to find one backed by math.
- Cathie Wood (ARK Invest): She’s been vocal about the "coiled spring" of the US economy. Her 2026 outlook suggests that deregulation and the potential for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could push prices into territory most people find laughable.
- VanEck: Their analysts recently published a base-case projection of a 15% CAGR, eyeing a long-term valuation of $2.9 million by 2050. For 2026, they see a "cyclical roadmap" that favors the upside as Bitcoin matures into a settlement currency.
- Standard Chartered: They’ve consistently pointed toward a $200,000 target by the end of 2025 or early 2026, driven largely by ETF inflows.
The $100,000 Psychological Wall
Right now, $100,000 is the Great Wall of China for Bitcoin. We’ve bumped our heads against it multiple times. Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known market strategist, recently noted that as long as Bitcoin holds support above **$94,630**, the momentum is skewed heavily toward a breakout.
Psychology matters more than tech in these zones. Once $100k falls, the "FOMO" (fear of missing out) usually shifts from retail investors to institutional ones. Imagine being a fund manager who refused to buy at $50k, and now you have to explain to your clients why you missed the move to $120k. That’s a lot of pressure.
The Macro Tailwinds
You can't talk about Bitcoin without talking about the Federal Reserve.
Basically, Bitcoin loves "cheap money." When interest rates are high, people stick their cash in savings accounts. When rates start to drift toward the 3% range—which many expect by the end of 2026—Bitcoin becomes much more attractive.
Also, keep an eye on the "Clarity Act." This isn't just another boring piece of legislation. It’s the potential bridge that allows US banks to actually hold and trade digital assets. If that passes the Senate in early 2026, the "marginal buyer" isn't a teenager on an app; it's a pension fund.
Why It Might NOT Go Up
I’d be lying if I said there was no risk. There's always a "but."
MSCI Ruling: In January 2026, a major ruling on whether crypto-heavy firms (like MicroStrategy) stay in major indices could cause some serious turbulence. If they get booted, we could see billions in passive outflows.
The Elliott Wave Party Poopers: Some technical analysts argue that the rally from the 2022 lows ($16,500) to our current levels is a completed "five-wave" move. In plain English? That means we might be due for a "C-wave" correction that could drag prices back down to the $70,000 or even $60,000 range to wash out the leverage.
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Actionable Insights for the 2026 Market
If you're trying to figure out your next move, stop looking at the 1-minute charts. They'll make you crazy.
- Watch the $94,600 Level: This is the current "line in the sand." If we stay above it, the $100k dream is very much alive. If we break below it for a week or more, expect a boring consolidation phase.
- Monitor ETF Net Flows: Watch the "IBIT" (BlackRock) flows. When they go negative for multiple days in a row, it usually signals that the big money is taking a breather.
- Check the Stablecoin Supply: High stablecoin liquidity usually acts as dry powder for the next leg up. Currently, stablecoin market caps are near all-time highs, which is a massive "bullish" signal.
- Ignore the "Halving" Hype: At this point, the halving's impact is mostly priced in. Focus on macro liquidity and regulatory news instead.
Bitcoin is maturing. It’s moving from a "speculative tech experiment" to a "portfolio ballast" similar to gold. While 30% swings are still on the table, the long-term trendline is being supported by a new class of buyers who don't care about the memes. If the US starts treated BTC as a strategic reserve asset, the question won't be "is it going up," but "how many decimals can I afford?"
Key Takeaway: The path to $150,000 is structurally possible in 2026, but it won't be a straight line. Prepare for a "grind" rather than a vertical "moonshot." Keep your position sizes reasonable and watch the institutional inflows more than the headlines.