The question of whether is hamas ending the war isn't just a matter of signing a piece of paper in a Cairo or Doha hotel room. It's a messy, brutal calculation of survival. If you’ve been following the news, the headlines flip-flop every six hours. One minute there’s a breakthrough, the next, a total collapse.
People want a "yes" or "no" answer. But Gaza doesn't work that way. Honestly, the situation is a knot of conflicting demands that makes a simple exit strategy feel almost impossible.
Hamas is currently balancing on a razor's edge. On one side, they face a decimated military infrastructure and a civilian population in Gaza that is enduring unimaginable suffering. On the other, the leadership—specifically Yahya Sinwar and the hardliners—views any surrender without "permanent" guarantees as a death sentence for the movement.
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What’s Actually Happening in the Negotiations?
To understand if is hamas ending the war, you have to look at the three-phase proposal that has been the backbone of every serious talk for months. It’s not just about stopping the shooting. It’s about who controls the dirt when the smoke clears.
Hamas has stayed remarkably consistent on its "big four" demands. They want a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from the entire Gaza Strip. They want a permanent end to hostilities. They want the return of displaced Palestinians to the north. And, of course, they want a significant prisoner exchange—thousands of Palestinians, including those with high-profile "blood on their hands" in Israeli eyes, for the remaining hostages.
Israel, specifically under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current coalition, has viewed several of these as non-starters. The "Philadelphi Corridor"—that narrow strip of land along the border between Gaza and Egypt—has become a massive sticking point. Israel says they need to stay there to stop smuggling. Hamas says if an Israeli soldier remains on an inch of Gaza soil, the war isn't over. It’s a stalemate.
The Survival Calculus
Hamas isn't a monolith. You have the "outside" leadership like Ismail Haniyeh (before his assassination) and Khaled Mashal who handle the diplomacy in Qatar. Then you have the "inside" leadership—the guys in the tunnels.
For the guys in the tunnels, "ending the war" looks like a win only if they remain the governing body of Gaza. If they agree to a deal that sees them replaced by a multinational force or the Palestinian Authority, they’ve lost. From their perspective, why stop fighting if you’re going to be hunted down or exiled anyway?
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It’s grim.
Is Hamas Ending the War? The Roadblocks Most People Miss
There is a huge gap between "stopping the fighting" and "ending the war." We’ve seen pauses before. We saw the week-long truce in November 2023. It felt like an ending, but it was just a pit stop.
One reason a permanent end is so elusive is the "day after" problem. Who picks up the trash? Who fixes the power lines? Hamas knows that as long as they hold hostages, they have leverage. If they trade their last "human shield" or "bargaining chip," they lose their only protection against a full-scale Israeli operation to eliminate their remaining cadres.
- Internal Pressure: Believe it or not, there is pressure within Gaza. While dissent is dangerous under Hamas rule, the sheer level of destruction has led to rare, whispered (and sometimes public) questioning of the October 7th strategy.
- The Iranian Factor: Hamas doesn't act in a total vacuum. Their relationship with the "Axis of Resistance" means their timing is often calibrated with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
- The Philadelphi Corridor Conflict: This 14km stretch is arguably the biggest reason the war continues today.
The Hostage Leverage
Hamas views the hostages as their life insurance. It’s a cold reality. If you look at the history of asymmetric warfare, the smaller force never gives up its biggest asset until it has a guarantee of survival.
The Netanyahu government faces immense pressure from the hostage families to make a deal. But the right-wing elements of his cabinet, like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, have threatened to topple the government if he "submits" to Hamas's demands.
So, you have two sides where the leadership might actually find more political (or literal) safety in continuing the conflict than in ending it. That’s the tragedy.
Why "Winning" is a Relative Term
In traditional war, one side surrenders. In guerrilla or urban insurgency, the insurgent "wins" simply by surviving. Hamas doesn't need to destroy the IDF; they just need to still exist when the last Israeli tank leaves.
If is hamas ending the war means they lay down their arms and walk out with white flags, it’s not happening. That’s a fantasy. If it means a slow, phased transition where they "rebrand" or hide within the civilian population while a temporary government takes over, that’s a possibility—but it’s one Israel is currently trying to prevent at all costs.
Think about the tunnels. The IDF has destroyed miles of them, but the network is so vast that it’s nearly impossible to map, let alone fully collapse, without destroying every building on the surface. This subterranean reality allows Hamas to keep the war going in a low-intensity "insurgency mode" even if the major battles stop.
The Geopolitical Chessboard
You can't talk about Hamas ending the war without mentioning Egypt and Qatar. These two countries are the lungs through which the negotiations breathe.
Egypt is terrified of a mass exodus of Palestinians into the Sinai. They want the war to end, but they also don't want a radicalized, armed Hamas presence on their doorstep. Qatar, meanwhile, provides the diplomatic suite where these conversations happen. They have the ear of the Hamas political wing, but even they admit that their influence over the commanders on the ground in Gaza is limited.
Then there is the US. The Biden administration—and moving into 2025/2026, the subsequent political shifts in Washington—has pushed for a "Grand Bargain." This would involve Saudi-Israeli normalization in exchange for a path to Palestinian statehood.
Hamas, by starting this war, effectively blew up the previous normalization talks. For them, ending the war without a significant shift toward a Palestinian state would be a massive strategic failure.
The Humanitarian Breaking Point
We have to talk about the famine risk and the healthcare collapse. Every NGO on the ground, from UNRWA to Doctors Without Borders, has screamed about the conditions.
Does this affect Hamas's decision to end the war? Kinda. They aren't immune to the reality that a population that has nothing left to lose might eventually turn on its rulers. However, they've also shown a historical willingness to let the civilian population bear the brunt of the cost for their ideological goals.
The Likely Scenario for 2026
Where does this leave us? Honestly, we are likely looking at a "simmering" conflict rather than a clean break.
The idea of a "Grand Signing Ceremony" where the war officially ends is unlikely. What’s more probable is a series of long-term truces that are frequently broken. Israel will likely maintain a security "buffer zone" inside Gaza, and Hamas will continue to operate as a shadow government or an underground resistance.
To say is hamas ending the war today would be premature. They are waiting to see if the international community will force Israel's hand. They are waiting for the "unity of the fronts" (Hezbollah, Iran, etc.) to create a bigger crisis that forces a ceasefire on their terms.
What You Can Do to Stay Informed
If you want to track the actual movement on this, stop looking at the "breaking news" banners that use anonymous sources. Look for these specific indicators:
- Changes in the "Philadelphi Corridor" stance: If Israel agrees to a remote monitoring system instead of physical troops, a deal is 90% there.
- The "Senior Prisoners" list: Watch if Israel starts discussing the release of Marwan Barghouti. If Barghouti is on the table, the war is effectively entering its final stage.
- The Kerem Shalom and Rafah Crossings: If these open for commercial goods (not just aid), it signals a transition away from a war footing.
The conflict is deeply personal for those living it. For the rest of the world, it's a complex geopolitical puzzle. Understanding that Hamas views "the war" as a decades-long struggle, not just a 2023-2026 conflict, is the only way to make sense of why they haven't just "ended" it yet.
Next Steps for Following the Situation:
Follow the daily briefings from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for tactical updates, and monitor the Times of Israel and Al Jazeera simultaneously. Comparing how these two outlets report the exact same "breakthrough" will give you the clearest picture of the gap between the two sides. Also, keep an eye on the UN Security Council votes; they often precede a shift in the "on-the-ground" posture by several weeks.
Fact-Check Summary
- Is there a signed peace treaty? No.
- Are negotiations active? Yes, primarily through Qatar, Egypt, and the US.
- What is the main obstacle? Permanent ceasefire vs. Israeli security control over borders.
- Has Hamas's leadership changed? Yes, several high-ranking members have been killed, shifting power dynamics to the "inside" commanders.