If you turn on the news today, the images coming out of Tehran look like a war zone. Smoke rising over Evin prison. Armored Spartak vehicles—freshly delivered from Russia—patrolling the squares of Isfahan. Heavy machine guns mounted on pickup trucks rattling through the streets of western Tehran.
But is Iran actually at war?
It's a tricky question. If you mean a conventional "state-vs-state" conflict with tanks crossing borders, the answer is technically no. At least, not today, January 16, 2026. However, if you look at the sheer scale of the violence, the "Twelve-Day War" with Israel that battered the country last June, and the current "proto-revolution" happening on the streets, the word "peace" doesn't exactly fit either.
Basically, Iran is fighting two different kinds of battles right now. One is a shadow war with external enemies like Israel and the US that occasionally turns "hot." The other is a brutal, internal war against its own citizens that has already claimed thousands of lives this month alone.
The Aftermath of the 2025 "Twelve-Day War"
To understand where we are now, you've got to look back at June 2025. That was the moment the shadow war finally broke out into the open. For nearly two weeks, Israel and Iran traded direct kinetic strikes that changed the regional math forever.
Tehran’s "Axis of Resistance" was fundamentally broken during that window. Their primary deterrent—the ability to hide behind proxies—evaporated. Hezbollah is currently a shell of its former self, struggling under a fragile ceasefire and facing calls to disarm. In Syria, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in 2024 already stripped Iran of its most critical land bridge.
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During that June conflict, Israeli strikes decimated large chunks of Iran’s air defenses and nuclear infrastructure. Honestly, it was a humiliating blow for the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). Even though Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spent most of that war in a secure bunker, the regime tried to spin their survival as a "victory." But survival isn't the same as strength.
What’s happening with the "Axis" right now?
- Hamas: Under the October 2025 agreement, they are supposed to disarm completely.
- Syria: Now under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, Damascus is no longer a reliable Iranian puppet.
- The Houthis: They are still active in Yemen, but the "frozen" battle lines since 2022 mean they aren't the regional disruptors they used to be.
Is Iran at War with Itself?
While the borders are quiet for the moment, the interior is a different story. Since late December 2025, a massive wave of protests sparked by a collapsing economy and 2025's "snapback" UN sanctions has turned into a full-blown uprising.
This isn't just another protest. It’s a slaughter.
Human rights groups like Iran Human Rights (IHR) and international outlets like CBS are reporting staggering death tolls. Some estimates suggest between 3,000 and 20,000 people have been killed by security forces in just the last two weeks. The regime has imposed a near-total internet blackout to hide the carnage, but the details leaking out through smuggled Starlink terminals are grim.
The IRGC’s Imam Ali Security Unit is using urban warfare tactics typically reserved for foreign battlefields. They aren't just "policing"; they are conducting military operations against civilians in all 31 provinces. In places like Shiraz and Mashhad, protesters are reportedly fighting back with whatever they can find—knives, machetes, and the occasional captured firearm.
The "Maximum Pressure 2.0" Factor
Adding fuel to the fire is the current US administration’s return to a "Maximum Pressure" stance. President Trump has been active on Truth Social, telling protesters that "help is on the way" while simultaneously thanking the Iranian leadership for canceling 800 scheduled executions just yesterday.
It’s a confusing, high-stakes game of chicken.
The US has recently intercepted Iranian-linked ships like the Bella 1 and even captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro earlier this month—a move that hit Iran’s "shadow economy" hard. Iran and Venezuela have long used each other to bypass oil sanctions. With that link severed, the Iranian Rial is in freefall, and the regime is reportedly moving its own hard currency reserves out of the country.
Why 2026 feels like a tipping point
Experts from the IISS and Brookings Institution are warning that the regime is "besieged." They’ve lost their regional deterrence, their economy is a ghost of its former self, and their own security forces are starting to show signs of burnout.
There are even reports of attrition within the lower ranks of the police. Imagine being a cop who can't afford rent, being told to shoot your neighbors who are protesting for the same reason you're broke. That’s the reality on the ground.
The Risk of a "Phase 2" Conflict
So, is Iran at war? If you're a civilian in Tehran dodging a DShK heavy machine gun, the answer is a resounding yes. If you’re looking at the geopolitical map, we are in a state of "armed peace" that most analysts think won't last through the spring.
Benjamin Netanyahu and the US leadership are in constant communication. The fear in the West is that Iran, feeling backed into a corner, might try to rebuild its nuclear or missile programs as a last-ditch effort to survive. If they do, the US and Israel have already signaled they will "knock them down."
Practical Realities to Watch
If you are tracking this situation for business, travel, or general awareness, keep these specific triggers in mind over the next few weeks:
- The Loyalty of the Artesh: Watch the regular Iranian army (the Artesh). If they refuse to support the IRGC’s crackdown or, heaven forbid, start defending the protesters, the regime falls within 48 hours.
- The "Shadow Fleet" Crackdown: Further US maritime seizures in the Strait of Hormuz will likely trigger Iranian "asymmetric" responses—think naval mines or drone strikes on tankers.
- Border Insurgencies: Groups like the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) are already attacking IRGC positions in Kermanshah. A multi-front internal war is much harder for Tehran to manage than a single uprising in the capital.
The most important takeaway is this: the Iranian regime is currently more vulnerable than it has been since 1979. They are fighting for their lives on their own streets, while their regional empire has effectively collapsed around them. 2026 isn't just another year of tension; it's the year the bill finally came due.
Actionable Insight: Monitor the status of the internet blackout. If the regime restores connectivity, it usually means they believe they have successfully crushed the dissent. If the blackout continues or expands to a total electricity "load shedding," expect the violence to escalate significantly as the state attempts a final, "quiet" liquidation of the opposition.