Texas and snow have a complicated relationship. One year we’re wearing shorts on Christmas Day, and the next, we’re staring at a frozen power grid and wondering where we put the ice scraper we haven’t used since 2021. If you're asking is it going to snow in Texas this year, the answer is basically a "yes, but" situation.
Nature doesn't do "simple" in the Lone Star State.
Right now, we are dealing with a weak La Niña. For those who aren't weather nerds, that usually means the jet stream stays further north, leaving Texas warmer and drier than average. But "average" is a sneaky word. It hides the fact that even in a warm winter, a single 48-hour window of Arctic air can turn a Tuesday in Amarillo—or even Austin—into a winter wonderland (or a nightmare, depending on your commute).
The Panhandle is already ahead of the game
If you live in Amarillo or Lubbock, you've probably already seen the white stuff. Just this past Saturday, January 17, 2026, parts of the Texas Panhandle saw light snowfall as a cold front dipped down from the Rockies. It wasn't a "shut down the city" kind of blizzard, but it was enough to drop visibility and remind everyone that winter is very much alive.
The National Weather Service in Amarillo has been tracking these "seesaw" temperatures. We're talking 30s one day and 60s the next. That is classic Texas.
Is it going to snow in Texas this year for the rest of us?
For folks in Dallas, Houston, or San Antonio, the outlook is a bit more conservative. Most long-range forecasts, including the 2025–2026 winter outlook from the National Weather Service, point toward above-normal temperatures for the Southern Tier.
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However, there’s a big caveat.
The Farmers’ Almanac—which people either swear by or laugh at—has predicted a "colder and wetter" mid-February for the Southern Plains. They’ve specifically flagged a period where moisture from the Gulf might collide with a late-season cold snap.
Honestly, that’s the recipe you need for Texas snow. You need the cold air to show up at the exact same time as the moisture. Usually, in Texas, the cold air is dry and the moist air is warm. When they shake hands? That’s when you get the 2021-style events.
Breaking it down by region
- North Texas (DFW): You’ve got the highest chance outside the Panhandle. Forecasts suggest a few "clashes" of air masses in late January and early February. Expect flurries, even if it doesn't stick.
- Central Texas (Austin/San Antonio): Meteorologist Zack Shields recently noted that while a "soft winter" is likely, we can't rule out a brief wintry mix. It’s more likely to be ice or sleet than "movie snow."
- South Texas and the Coast: Highly unlikely. You’re looking at a mostly mild and dry season, though a stray "Blue Norther" could bring a freeze.
Why La Niña matters (and why it might lie to you)
We are currently in a La Niña Advisory. Statistically, this means Texas should stay dry. But here’s the thing about weak La Niñas: they are notoriously "wobbly."
In 2026, the Climate Prediction Center expects a transition to "ENSO-neutral" by spring. When the atmosphere is in transition, things get weird. The jet stream can dip unexpectedly.
Think of it like a spinning top that's starting to slow down; it wobbles. Those wobbles are what bring the Arctic air down to places like Waco and Tyler. So while the official forecast says "warmer than average," that doesn't mean it won't snow for three days in February and then hit 75 degrees the following Monday.
What you should actually do
Don't go out and buy a snowmobile. But also, don't be the person who has to wrap their pipes with towels at 11:00 PM because a surprise freeze moved in.
- Watch the February window. The most consistent data across the Almanac and NOAA suggests that if we get a "real" winter event, it’ll be in the first two weeks of February.
- Insulate now. Even if it doesn't snow, a "hard freeze" (temperatures below 28°F for several hours) is almost a guarantee for North and Central Texas at least once.
- Check your tires. Texas roads aren't built for ice, and neither are Texas drivers. If the forecast even mentions "wintry mix," just stay home.
Snow in Texas is less about a season-long white blanket and more about a chaotic 72-hour event that changes everything. Keep your eyes on the local North Texas or Central Texas NWS offices as we head into the "February Freeze" window.
Prepare your home for a hard freeze by mid-February. Even if the snow doesn't pile up, the "dry cold" of a La Niña winter can be just as hard on your plumbing and landscaping. Make sure your outdoor faucets are covered and your "drip" strategy is ready for those overnight dips into the 20s.