If you’ve spent any time on financial Twitter or scrolled through enough stock market subreddits lately, you’ve probably seen the firestorm. People are obsessed. They’re looking at Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy and wondering how a company with a market cap larger than half the current index is still sitting on the sidelines. Specifically, the burning question remains: is mstr in the s&p 500 right now?
The short answer? No. It’s not.
Despite being added to the Nasdaq-100 and becoming a massive favorite for retail and institutional traders alike, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has yet to get the official nod from the S&P Index Committee. It’s a weird situation. You have a company that basically acts as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, holding over 687,000 BTC as of mid-January 2026, yet it remains excluded from the "gold standard" of American stock indices.
The Numbers Game: Why MSTR Technically Qualifies
To understand why it hasn't happened, we have to look at what the S&P Dow Jones Indices actually asks for. They aren't just picking names out of a hat. There’s a checklist.
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First off, market cap. As of early 2026, MicroStrategy’s market cap has swung wildly but generally sits well above the $22.7 billion threshold required for consideration. Honestly, it’s not even close. With the stock trading around $173 recently, its valuation makes it a literal giant compared to some of the smaller, "old guard" companies currently in the index.
Then there’s the profitability rule. This was the big hurdle for years. The S&P 500 requires a company’s most recent quarter to be profitable, and the sum of the previous four quarters must also be positive. For a long time, MSTR’s balance sheet looked like a disaster on paper because of "impairment losses." Basically, every time Bitcoin’s price dropped, MSTR had to report a massive loss, even if they didn't sell a single satoshi.
Everything changed with the new FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) rules.
Under these updated guidelines, companies can now report the "fair value" of their digital assets. If Bitcoin goes up, MSTR’s earnings look legendary. In late 2025, we saw this play out. The company reported a massive $10 billion profit in a single quarter. Technically, they checked the box.
The Gatekeepers: Why "Eligibility" Isn't "Inclusion"
Here’s the thing most people get wrong. Just because you meet the math doesn’t mean you’re in. The S&P 500 is managed by a committee of humans—the Index Committee. These folks have a "holistic" view. They want the index to represent the U.S. economy, not just a list of the 500 biggest companies.
They are notoriously conservative.
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Take Tesla, for example. Elon Musk’s car company was eligible for months, maybe years, before they finally let it in back in 2020. The committee was worried about volatility. They were worried about whether the profits were "real" or just from regulatory credits.
With MSTR, the concerns are similar but dialed up to eleven.
- Volatility: MSTR has a beta of nearly 4.0. That means it moves 4% for every 1% move in the market. It’s a rollercoaster.
- Concentration: Is it a software company? Or is it a Bitcoin ETF in a business suit? The committee might feel that including MSTR is essentially putting a massive, volatile crypto-proxy into the 401ks of millions of people who didn't ask for it.
- Sustainability: They look at whether the earnings are repeatable. If MSTR’s profit is 99% tied to Bitcoin price appreciation and 1% tied to software sales, the committee might view that as "low quality" earnings.
What Happens if They Finally Say Yes?
If the committee ever decides is mstr in the s&p 500 should be a "yes," the market reaction would be, frankly, insane.
Analysts at firms like Stephens and Bernstein have estimated that passive index funds would need to buy somewhere around 50 million shares of MSTR to match the index weighting. That’s roughly $16 billion to $20 billion in forced buying. Imagine that. You have Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street—the big three—all forced to buy MSTR on the same day.
It creates a "positive feedback loop."
- MSTR gets added to the S&P 500.
- Passive funds buy MSTR.
- MSTR price goes up.
- MSTR issues more equity (shares) to buy more Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin price goes up because of the massive buys.
- MSTR’s "fair value" profit goes up.
- Rinse and repeat.
Michael Saylor has basically called this the "infinite money glitch." It’s a bold claim, but so far, the strategy of using debt and equity to stack Bitcoin has worked better than almost anyone predicted back in 2020.
The Rebalancing Calendar: When to Watch
The S&P 500 doesn't just change whenever they feel like it. They rebalance quarterly—usually on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
We just passed the December 2025 rebalance, and MSTR was passed over again. Instead, companies like AppLovin and Robinhood have been getting the nod. It’s a bit of a snub, especially since MSTR’s trading volume is often higher than almost anything else on the market.
Looking ahead to 2026, the March rebalance is the next major "binary event." If MSTR remains profitable under the fair value rules and Bitcoin stays relatively stable (or climbs), the pressure on the committee will be massive. They can only ignore a top-100-sized company for so long before the "500" starts to look like it’s missing a huge chunk of reality.
The Counter-Argument: Why it Might NEVER Happen
It’s worth acknowledging that some experts, like Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, have been skeptical. The index committee likes "boring." They like companies like Home Depot or Pepsi. MicroStrategy is the opposite of boring.
There’s also the "sector weighting" issue. The S&P tries to keep sectors (Tech, Healthcare, Energy) somewhat balanced. MSTR is classified as "Information Technology," a sector that is already incredibly crowded with giants like Apple and Microsoft. Adding MSTR adds more tech, but specifically "tech" that is actually a digital commodity.
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Some think the committee will wait for Coinbase (COIN) to lead the way. Coinbase is a more "traditional" business model in the crypto space—they make money on fees, not just holding the asset. If COIN gets in first and the sky doesn't fall, it might pave the way for MSTR.
Practical Next Steps for Investors
If you're tracking whether is mstr in the s&p 500 for your own portfolio, don't just wait for the news. The "front-running" usually happens weeks before the official announcement.
Keep an eye on the 10-Q and 10-K filings. Specifically, look at the "Net Income" line under the new FASB rules. If that number remains strongly positive for four consecutive quarters, the "technical" door is wide open. Also, watch the "Expected Move" in the options market leading up to the third Friday of March 2026. If implied volatility starts spiking, the "smart money" might be betting on a surprise inclusion.
Don't bet the farm on it, though. The S&P committee is a black box. They don't give explanations when they reject a company. They just release a PDF on a Friday night and the world reacts.
The best move is to treat MSTR as what it is: a high-conviction, high-volatility play on Bitcoin's treasury adoption. S&P inclusion would be a massive "cherry on top," but the core thesis still lives and dies with the price of Bitcoin.
Monitor the quarterly earnings releases scheduled for early 2026 to verify if the four-quarter rolling profitability remains intact under fair value accounting. This is the single most important data point for the committee. Additionally, track the spread between MSTR's share price and its Net Asset Value (NAV) of Bitcoin; a massive premium often makes the committee more hesitant due to "bubble" concerns.