The smoke hanging over the Pacific Palisades isn't just a visual nuisance; for anyone living along the PCH or tucked into the Santa Monica Mountains, it’s a ticking clock. People keep asking the same thing: is the Palisades fire under control? If you look at the official maps from the Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD), you’ll see containment percentages that look promising, but "contained" and "controlled" are two very different beasts in the world of California wildfires.
It’s scary. One minute the wind is pushing the flames toward the ocean, and the next, a shift in the offshore gusts sends embers flying into canyons that haven't burned in decades.
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We’ve seen this play out before with the 2021 Palisades Fire and the more recent 2025 flare-ups. Firefighters often describe these coastal bluffs as a nightmare. Why? Because the topography is basically a vertical maze of dry chaparral and invasive grasses. When the LAFD or CAL FIRE says a fire is 60% or 80% contained, they mean they’ve cleared a line around that portion of the perimeter. It doesn't mean the fire is out. It definitely doesn't mean you should unpack your "go bag" just yet.
Understanding the Difference Between Containment and Control
Most people get these terms mixed up. Honestly, it's easy to see why.
Containment refers to the physical line—a trench, a cleared dirt path, or a hose line—that has been established around the fire. If the Palisades fire is under control, it means the forward progress has been stopped and the interior heat has been suppressed to the point where an escape is unlikely. Right now, the crews are fighting "slop-overs." That’s when a fire jumps the line.
In the Palisades, the wind is the ultimate wildcard. Even if a fire is 95% contained, a single 40 mph gust can carry a burning ember across a four-lane highway. That’s how these fires turn from local incidents into regional catastrophes. You have to watch the "mop-up" phase closely. This is when crews literally hand-sift through ash to find "hot spots." It’s tedious, back-breaking work, and it’s the only way to truly say the fire is under control.
The Role of Topography in the Santa Monica Mountains
Geography is the enemy here. The Palisades are beautiful, sure, but they are a funnel for wind.
Topography drives fire behavior more than almost anything else in Southern California. Steep canyons act like chimneys. When heat rises, it pulls oxygen in from the bottom, creating a self-sustaining blowtorch effect. Ground crews often can't even get into these areas. They rely on "Phos-Chek" drops from fixed-wing aircraft and precision water drops from the LAFD’s "Fire 1" or "Fire 2" helicopters.
If the fire is stuck in a deep ravine near Topanga, the containment numbers will stay low for days. It’s simply too dangerous to put people on those slopes until the aerial tankers have cooled it down.
Real-Time Monitoring: How to Check if the Palisades Fire is Under Control
Don't rely on a single news tweet from three hours ago. Things move too fast.
The most reliable source for the Palisades area is the LAFD Alert system. They are incredibly disciplined about posting updates. Also, keep an eye on the Watch Duty app. It’s become the gold standard for residents because it aggregates radio traffic and satellite heat detections faster than most major news outlets can type a headline.
- Check the LAFD News Blog for "Brush Fire" tags.
- Look at the MODIS/VIIRS satellite heat maps. These show where the actual "hot" pixels are located.
- Monitor the "PurpleAir" sensors in the neighborhood. If air quality is plummeting, the fire is still active and eating fuel, regardless of what the containment percentage says.
Sometimes, the official report says "forward progress stopped." This is the phrase you actually want to hear. It means the fire isn't growing anymore. But even then, "under control" usually isn't declared until the fire is 100% contained and the "dead-out" status is confirmed.
The Fuel Problem: Why This Area Keeps Burning
The Santa Monica Mountains are covered in "old-growth" chaparral. Some of these patches haven't burned in 50 years.
This creates a massive fuel load. In the fire science world, they talk about "fuel moisture levels." During a drought, or even just after a long, hot summer, the moisture in these plants drops below 60%. At that point, the plants are basically standing gasoline. They don't just burn; they explode.
When you ask if the fire is under control, you also have to ask: what is it burning? If it’s grass, it moves fast but dies out quickly. If it’s thick brush and oak timber, that fire will smolder for weeks. We’ve seen instances where a fire was "controlled" on a Tuesday, only for a hidden root fire to pop up 50 feet away on a Friday.
What Residents Need to Do Right Now
If the fire is near you, "under control" is a luxury of time you might not have.
Evacuation warnings (voluntary) and evacuation orders (mandatory) are based on projected fire behavior over the next 12 to 24 hours. If the fire is 20% contained and the winds are picking up, the LAFD will clear neighborhoods out of an abundance of caution. It’s not because they’re being dramatic. It’s because the roads in the Palisades—like Sunset Boulevard or Palisades Drive—get choked with traffic instantly.
If you wait until you see flames, you are already too late.
Hardening Your Home Before the Next Flare-Up
Since the fire risk in this area is basically permanent, "control" also applies to your property.
- Defensible Space: You need at least 100 feet of cleared space. Not just "no trees," but no dry brush.
- Vents: Most homes burn from the inside out because embers fly into attic vents. Install 1/16th-inch metal mesh. It’s a cheap weekend project that saves houses.
- Gutters: If your gutters are full of dry leaves, your house has a crown of kindling. Clean them. Now.
The Long-Term Reality of the Palisades Fire Risk
We have to be honest. The "fire season" doesn't really end in California anymore.
Climate shifts have pushed the rainy season later into the winter. This means the vegetation stays dry through the peak Santa Ana wind months of October, November, and December. Even in January, like we saw with the 2022 fires, a warm week can prime the hills for a breakout.
Is the fire under control today? Maybe. But the landscape is primed for the next one. The combination of high-end real estate and rugged, untamable terrain makes the Palisades one of the most difficult fire-fighting zones in the United States.
Actionable Steps for Safety
Stop checking the news every five minutes and take these concrete steps instead.
First, sign up for NotifyLA. It’s the official emergency alert system for the City of Los Angeles. They will send a text directly to your phone if your specific block is under threat. Second, map out two different exit routes that don't involve the PCH. If there’s a rockslide or a major accident, the highway becomes a parking lot.
Finally, keep your car's gas tank at least half full. It sounds like "dad advice," but when the power goes out and the gas stations can't pump, you don't want to be stranded on a hillside.
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The Palisades fire is only truly "under control" when the last ember is cold to the touch and the red flag warnings have expired. Until then, stay vigilant and keep your boots by the door.
Check the LAFD Active Incidents page for the specific coordinates of the current fire perimeter and updated containment stats. If you see smoke rising in a "column" shape, the fire is active and building energy. If the smoke is "lazy" and white, it’s mostly water vapor and smoldering material—a good sign that the crews are gaining the upper hand.