Everyone is asking the same thing right now. Is there a pause on tariffs, or are we just stuck in a permanent cycle of trade wars? If you’ve looked at your supply chain costs lately or noticed that imported electronics aren't getting any cheaper, you already know the answer is complicated.
It's messy. Honestly, the idea of a "pause" is mostly a matter of perspective. While some specific duties have been suspended or "carved out" through exclusion processes, the broad architecture of global tariffs—especially those stemming from the Section 301 investigations into China—remains very much alive. We aren't in a ceasefire. We're in a strategic stalemate.
The reality of the current tariff "pause"
Let's be clear: there is no global button that everyone pushed to stop the madness. If you are waiting for a total rollback to 2016 levels, you’re going to be waiting a long time.
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What people usually mean when they ask if there is a pause on tariffs is whether the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has extended exclusions. For a while, there was a glimmer of hope. The Biden administration, and now the current 2026 trade officials, have used a "surgical" approach. This means they keep the heavy tariffs on things like steel, aluminum, and EVs, but they occasionally grant a hall pass to very specific items that American companies simply can't get anywhere else.
Take the Section 301 exclusions. These were the big ones. In late 2024 and through 2025, we saw a series of extensions for specific categories like medical care products and certain industrial components. But here's the kicker: those aren't permanent. They are temporary reprieves.
They expire.
Companies often find themselves in this frantic scramble every six months, checking Federal Register notices to see if their specific HTS (Harmonized Tariff Schedule) code is still on the "safe" list. It’s exhausting. It makes long-term budgeting feel like a game of high-stakes poker where the dealer keeps changing the rules mid-hand.
Why the "pause" feels like a myth to small businesses
For a massive corporation, a 25% tariff is a line item they can hedge against. For a guy running a boutique bike shop or a small electronics firm, it's a death sentence.
I talked to a furniture importer recently. He was convinced there was a pause because he hadn't seen a new "List" announced in months. He was wrong. The tariffs didn't pause; they just became the "new normal." When a tax stays in place for five years, we stop calling it a "trade war" and just start calling it "the price of doing business."
That is the trap.
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We’ve moved into an era of "Securitized Trade." This isn't just about protecting a local factory anymore. It's about national security. Whether it's semiconductors or the minerals used in EV batteries, the government isn't looking to pause tariffs; they're looking to use them as a leash to pull manufacturing away from geopolitical rivals.
The Section 301 updates you actually need to know
If you're digging into the specifics of the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, the "pause" is more of a pivot. In 2024, the USTR completed a four-year review. They didn't just keep the old tariffs; they hiked them on strategic sectors.
- Electric Vehicles: Tariffs jumped to 100%. That's not a pause. That’s a barricade.
- Solar Cells: Doubled to 50%.
- Syringes and Needles: Increased to 50% to ensure we have domestic supply for the next pandemic.
There was a temporary pause on certain machinery used for domestic manufacturing. The logic was simple: if we want to build things in America, we shouldn't tax the machines we need to build them. But even those exclusions are under constant scrutiny.
You have to look at the "De Minimis" loophole too. For years, shipments under $800 skipped the tariff line entirely. This was the "great pause" for companies like Shein and Temu. However, as of early 2026, the crackdown is real. New executive actions and proposed legislative changes are effectively ending the "pause" on these low-value shipments. If it comes from a country under Section 301, the $800 exemption is becoming a thing of the past.
What about the EU and other allies?
It isn't all bad news. There has been a legitimate pause in some areas—specifically with our friends in Europe.
Remember the Boeing-Airbus dispute? That was a 17-year-long headache that saw tariffs on everything from French wine to Scotch whisky. In 2021, the U.S. and EU agreed to a five-year suspension. We are currently in the tail end of that window. While it's technically a "suspension," most diplomats are working behind the scenes to make it a permanent peace.
Then there's the "Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum." This one is trickier. Instead of the old-school Section 232 tariffs that Trump slapped on everyone, the U.S. and EU moved to a "Tariff-Rate Quota" (TRQ) system.
It’s a soft pause.
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Under a TRQ, a certain amount of European steel comes in duty-free. Once you hit that limit, the 25% tariff kicks back in. It’s like a data plan for your phone. Use too much, and the overage charges are brutal.
How to navigate a "Paused" environment
So, you're looking at your shipping manifests and wondering what to do. If you're waiting for a politician to stand up and declare that all tariffs are over, you're going to go bankrupt first.
Strategy is everything now.
First, stop looking for a pause and start looking for Duty Drawback. This is one of the most underutilized tools in trade. If you import goods, pay a tariff, and then export those same goods (or products made from them), you can get 99% of that tariff money back from the government. It’s a literal check in the mail. Most companies don't do it because the paperwork is a nightmare, but in 2026, it's the only way to stay competitive.
Second, consider Country of Origin (COO) shifting. This isn't about "cheating." It's about "Substantial Transformation." If you bring components into Vietnam or Mexico and perform significant manufacturing there, the product is no longer "Made in China" for tariff purposes. But be careful. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is getting incredibly good at tracking "transshipment." If you're just putting a sticker on a box in a warehouse in Hanoi, they will catch you, and the fines are much worse than the tariffs.
The political reality of 2026
We are in an election cycle, and "being tough on trade" is one of the few things both parties actually agree on.
No one wants to be the person who "paused" tariffs and let foreign competitors flood the market. It’s bad optics. Because of this, we should expect the status quo—high baseline tariffs with very narrow, temporary exclusions—to continue.
The "pause" is a tool, not a policy. It’s used to reward allies or help domestic factories get the parts they need. It is never meant to be a permanent return to free trade.
Actionable steps for your business
Since there isn't a blanket pause on tariffs, you have to create your own "tariff-lite" environment.
- Audit your HTS Codes. This sounds boring. It is boring. But a single digit difference in how you classify your product can mean the difference between a 0% duty and a 25% duty. Laws change, and how CBP interprets a "plastic widget" versus a "decorative household item" changes too.
- Bonded Warehouses. If you aren't ready to pay the tariff yet, keep your goods in a bonded warehouse. You only pay the duty when the goods enter the "commerce" of the U.S. This helps with cash flow, which is usually where tariff-heavy businesses fail.
- Section 321 Management. If you're in e-commerce, keep a very close eye on the de minimis changes. The "pause" on these taxes for small orders is evaporating. You may need to look at "Entry Type 86" filings to speed up your customs clearance even if the tax-free ride is ending.
- Supply Chain Diversification. This is the big one. "China Plus One" is no longer just a buzzword. It's a survival tactic. Moving 20% of your production to India, Thailand, or Mexico creates a hedge. If one trade corridor sees a tariff spike, you have another one already open.
The era of "set it and forget it" global sourcing is dead. Whether there is a pause on tariffs today doesn't matter as much as whether there will be an increase tomorrow. The only real "pause" is the one you build into your own margins by being smarter than the competition.
Keep your eye on the USTR's "Product Exclusion" page. It's updated more often than people realize. If you find your product there, you might just get a temporary breather. But keep your running shoes on; the landscape is going to shift again before you know it.
Next Steps for Implementation
Start by downloading your last 12 months of import data. Look specifically at the "Duty Paid" column. If that number is higher than your net profit, your first move is to consult with a Licensed Customs Broker to see if you qualify for any of the active Section 301 exclusions that were extended through 2025 and into 2026. Simultaneously, check if your products fall under the newly hiked "Strategic Sector" lists (EVs, batteries, semiconductors) to anticipate any upcoming cost spikes that haven't hit your inventory yet.