If you’ve spent more than five minutes in Chautauqua County, you know the Jamestown NY weather forecast is less of a rigid schedule and more of a polite suggestion. It's Tuesday, January 13, 2026, and if you’re looking out your window right now at a gray sky, you’re experiencing a classic Southern Tier winter. But don't let the "partly cloudy" labels on your phone fool you.
Right now, it’s 27°F. With the wind coming off the lake at about 8 mph, it feels more like 19°F. Basically, it's "keep your car brush in the front seat" weather.
The Near-Term Reality: Snow is Lurking
Looking at the immediate Jamestown NY weather forecast, we’re in for a bit of a temperature roller coaster. Today, we’re actually going to hit a high of 40°F. That sounds great until you realize it’s going to turn the existing snow into a slushy mess before the temperature plummets again.
By tomorrow, Wednesday the 14th, the "Lake Effect Machine" starts to wake up. We’re looking at snow showers with a high of 38°F, but the overnight low is going to crash to 15°F. That’s a 23-degree drop. If you have outdoor pets or pipes that like to freeze, tomorrow night is your warning shot.
The real teeth of the week arrive Thursday. The high won't even break 14°F. That is legitimately cold. Wind gusts will be coming from the northwest at 15 mph, which means wind chills will likely hover near or below zero. If you’re commuting toward Fredonia or Dunkirk, watch the Chautauqua Ridge—that’s usually where the visibility goes to zero first.
Understanding the Lake Erie Effect
Why is our weather so... aggressive? It’s the water. Even in mid-January, Lake Erie often remains partially open. When that cold Canadian air screams across the relatively warmer water, it picks up moisture and dumps it right on top of us.
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- The 2024-2025 Season: We saw this in full effect last year. Jamestown ended the winter with about 90.1 inches of snow.
- The "Flake Scale": The National Weather Service in Buffalo often uses a rating system. Last month, we saw "3-flake" and "4-flake" events where localized spots near Cassadaga and Perrysburg got hammered with 40+ inches in a single weekend.
- The Narrow Band Phenomenon: You can be in downtown Jamestown with nothing but a few flurries while someone five miles away in Falconer is digging their mailbox out of a three-foot drift.
Honestly, the "cloudiness" is the most consistent part. In January, Jamestown stays overcast about 76% of the time. We’re basically the vitamin D deficiency capital of the world this time of year.
Looking Ahead: The 7-Day Outlook
If you're planning your week, here is the breakdown of what to expect from the Jamestown NY weather forecast. No sugar-coating here:
Friday, Jan 16: Snow showers continue. High of 28°F. The lake effect might settle into a more organized band, so keep an eye on local radar.
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Saturday, Jan 17: Still snowing. High 32°F. This is that heavy, wet "heart attack" snow that’s miserable to shovel but great for snowmen.
Sunday, Jan 18: Temperatures start dropping again. High of 21°F. More snow showers.
Monday, Jan 19: High of 18°F. Low of 8°F. This is deep winter territory.
Tuesday, Jan 20: This looks like the coldest day of the stretch. We’re eyeing a high of only 10°F and a low of 5°F.
Survival Tips for the Southern Tier
You’ve heard it before, but layers aren't just a suggestion; they're a survival strategy. When the humidity is high (and it’s currently at 82%), the cold feels "wetter" and bites harder into your skin.
Check your tire pressure. These 20-degree swings in the Jamestown NY weather forecast will make your "low pressure" light pop on faster than you can say "Chautauqua Lake."
Also, keep a half tank of gas. If you get stuck behind a plow or a jackknifed trailer on I-86, you’ll want that heater running.
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What the Apps Get Wrong
Most national weather apps pull data from the Chautauqua County-Jamestown Airport (JHW). The airport is at a higher elevation than the city itself. Often, it’ll be snowing at the airport while it’s just raining near the Riverwalk. If you’re looking for the most accurate "street level" info, local spotter reports on social media are usually more reliable than a generic algorithm.
Actionable Steps for the Next 48 Hours:
- Clear your gutters today: With today’s 40°F high and tomorrow’s 15°F low, ice dams are a huge risk.
- Salt the driveway tonight: Get it down before the slush freezes solid on Wednesday night.
- Check your emergency kit: Ensure you have a blanket, a shovel, and some hand warmers in your trunk before the Thursday cold snap hits.
Stay warm, keep your headlights on in the snow, and remember: April is only three months away. Sorta.