Jared Goff is basically the human embodiment of a Rorschach test for NFL fans. You look at his numbers, specifically that eye-popping Jared Goff QB rating from the last two seasons, and you see a Hall of Fame trajectory. Then you hop on social media, and people act like he’s just a glorified hand-off machine who occasionally throws a 5-yard out. It’s wild.
The disconnect is real.
To understand why Goff’s passer rating keeps flirting with the 110 mark while his QBR—that proprietary ESPN metric everyone loves to argue about—tells a different story, we have to look at how the guy actually plays. It's not just about completions and touchdowns. It’s about the environment, the scheme, and frankly, a level of efficiency that we haven't seen from many players not named Brees or Rodgers.
The 2024 Statistical Explosion
If you missed the 2024 season, you missed a masterclass in "point guard" quarterbacking. Goff finished that year with a 111.8 passer rating. That’s not just good; it’s elite. He threw for over 4,600 yards and 37 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions.
The most staggering stat? His 72.4% completion percentage.
Only Drew Brees has ever been more accurate over a full season with that many attempts. Think about that. We’re talking about a guy the Rams basically paid the Lions to take away. Now, he’s out here rewriting the Detroit record books.
But here’s the thing: people love to credit Ben Johnson’s system. And sure, the system is great. But a system doesn't throw a perfect 158.3 rating against the Jaguars or go 18-for-18 against the Seahawks. You still have to make the throws.
Why the Jared Goff QB Rating and QBR Disagree
This is where it gets nerdy, but stay with me. The traditional passer rating (which the NFL uses officially) looks at four things: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, and interception percentage.
Goff is a king in this formula.
He doesn't throw many picks, he completes everything, and his yards per attempt in 2024 was a massive 8.6. However, ESPN’s Total QBR is different. It’s a "black box" formula that accounts for rushing ability, sacks taken, and "clutch" factor.
In 2025, for instance, Goff posted a 103.4 passer rating (3rd in the NFL), but his QBR sat at a more modest 58.0. Why the gap?
- Mobility (or lack thereof): Goff doesn't run. QBR loves a QB who can scramble for 20 yards on 3rd-and-long. Goff is more likely to navigate the pocket and throw it away or take a sack if the play breaks down.
- The "System" Penalty: Advanced metrics like QBR try to parse out how much of a play's success belongs to the QB versus the receiver. When Goff hits Amon-Ra St. Brown on a crosser and St. Brown turns it into a 40-yard gain, QBR gives a lot of that credit to the receiver.
- Situational Context: If you throw for 300 yards in a blowout, passer rating rewards you. QBR says, "Who cares? The game was over."
Honestly, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. He’s better than the "system QB" labels, but he’s also clearly a player who needs a specific environment to thrive.
Navigating the 2025 Regression (If You Call it That)
Last year was a weird one for the Lions. The offensive line, usually a brick wall, dealt with injuries and ranked 30th in pass-block win rate. You’d think Goff’s rating would crater.
It didn't.
He still threw for 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns. He actually cut his interceptions down to 8. But if you watched the tape, something was different. The efficiency—his EPA per play—dipped. He became more risk-averse.
Under the play-calling of Dan Campbell (who took over more duties after shifts in the staff), Goff’s accuracy on deep balls actually went up, but his success rate on third downs took a hit. It’s a trade-off. He was playing "safer" football to compensate for a crumbling pocket, which kept his Jared Goff QB rating high but made the offense feel a bit more stagnant at times.
What Most People Get Wrong About Goff
The biggest myth is that he can't throw deep.
If you look at the 2025 metrics, Goff ranked 5th in deep-ball completion percentage (48.7%). He’s not just dinking and dunking. The Lions’ offense is built on intermediate intermediate-to-deep crossing routes that require timing and anticipation—two things Goff has in spades.
Another misconception? That he folds under pressure.
In 2024, he faced one of the highest pressure rates of his career (36.2%) and still maintained a top-three rating. He’s evolved. He isn't the same kid who looked like a deer in headlights during Super Bowl LIII with the Rams. He’s a veteran who knows exactly where his "hot" read is.
Putting the Numbers Into Perspective
To really grasp how good he's been, look at his career totals as of early 2026:
- Passing Yards: 39,622
- TD-INT Ratio: 256–102
- Career Passer Rating: 96.8
He’s on pace to finish with Hall of Fame-level volume stats. If he wins a ring in Detroit, the "system QB" conversation ends forever. Without the ring? He probably stays in that "Stafford tier"—the guy who was always great but never quite got the universal respect of the "Tier 1" elites.
How to Value Goff Moving Forward
If you're a bettor, a fantasy player, or just a die-hard Lions fan, you have to look past the raw Jared Goff QB rating and watch the offensive line.
Goff is an "environment-dependent" superstar. When the pocket is clean, he is statistically the best passer in the league. Period. When the pocket collapses, he becomes league-average.
Actionable Insights for the Next Season:
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- Watch the O-Line Health: Goff’s rating fluctuates by nearly 20 points based on whether he’s pressured on more than 30% of his dropbacks. If the Lions' tackles are healthy, start him with confidence.
- Indoor vs. Outdoor: It’s a cliché because it’s true. Goff’s career rating is significantly higher in domes. The Lions play the majority of their games indoors, which inflates his season-long numbers.
- Red Zone Efficiency: In 2025, his Red Zone TD rate actually improved even as his overall efficiency dropped. He’s becoming a more tactical "red area" passer, which is great for the Lions' scoring but might not always reflect in his yardage totals.
The bottom line? Stop waiting for Goff to fail just because he doesn't run a 4.4 forty. He’s a processor. He’s a rhythm thrower. And right now, the rhythm in Detroit is pretty damn good.