You’ve probably seen the ads or heard the whispers about the "death of the dollar." Most people roll their eyes. They think it's just another doom-and-gloom sales pitch designed to scare retirees into buying gold bars.
But honestly? When Jim Rickards talks about strategic intelligence, he isn't just guessing based on a gut feeling. He’s looking at the plumbing of the global financial system—the stuff most of us never see.
Rickards has a background that makes most Wall Street analysts look like interns. He was the guy in the room during the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis. He didn't just watch it; he was the principal negotiator for the Fed-sponsored rescue. Since then, he’s advised the CIA and the Pentagon on financial warfare.
Basically, he treats the global economy like a battlefield, not a spreadsheet.
What is Strategic Intelligence actually about?
At its core, Jim Rickards Strategic Intelligence is a monthly advisory service published by Paradigm Press. It’s built on a proprietary model called "Complexity Theory."
Most economists use models that assume the world is a neat, linear place where things return to normal after a shock. Rickards thinks that’s total nonsense. He argues that the financial system is a "complex adaptive system."
Think of it like an avalanche.
A single snowflake doesn't cause the mountain to collapse, but once the snow is "unstable," any tiny movement can trigger the whole thing. In his newsletter, Rickards looks for those "snowflakes"—geopolitical shifts, interest rate hikes, or bank failures—that could bring the whole system down.
The 2026 Gold Prediction: $10,000 or Bust?
One of the most controversial pillars of Rickards’ current work is his math on gold. By late 2025 and heading into 2026, he’s been shouting from the rooftops that gold isn't just a commodity. It’s money.
He recently argued that gold could hit $10,000 an ounce by 2026.
Sounds crazy, right? But here is his logic: if you take the global M1 money supply and back it with 40% gold (the historical standard), the math forces the price of gold into the five-figure range. He isn't saying it should be $10,000 because he likes the color. He’s saying that if the dollar collapses and we return to a gold standard to restore confidence, that is the literal price required to support the money supply.
Why the "Paradigm Shift" is happening now
We’re seeing things today that Rickards predicted a decade ago in his book Currency Wars.
- Central Bank Buying: In 2024 and 2025, central banks in China, Russia, and even smaller nations like Poland moved away from U.S. Treasuries and toward physical gold.
- Weaponizing the Dollar: When the U.S. froze Russian reserves, it sent a shockwave through the world. Every country realized that if they hold dollars, Washington owns their "off-switch."
- The AI Threat: Rickards’ newest focus—often discussed in his MoneyGPT briefings—is how AI-driven trading algorithms could trigger a "flash crash" that no human can stop.
Is he always right? (The nuanced reality)
Let's be real: Jim Rickards has been predicting a major dollar collapse for a long time.
If you followed his advice to the letter in 2015, you might have missed out on the massive S&P 500 rally of the late 2010s. Critics call him a "perma-bear." They argue that the U.S. dollar is the "cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry"—meaning even if it’s bad, everything else (Euro, Yen, Yuan) is worse.
However, his "strategic intelligence" approach isn't just about being right on the date. It’s about "asymmetric risk."
He wants you to have 10% of your wealth in "hard assets" like physical gold or land. If the world keeps humming along, your other 90% (stocks, bonds, real estate) does fine. But if he’s right about a systemic reset? That 10% insurance policy becomes the only thing that preserves your lifestyle.
It's sorta like wearing a seatbelt. You don't expect to crash every time you drive to the grocery store, but you’re glad it’s there when some guy blows a red light.
How the Strategic Intelligence Newsletter works
If you subscribe to the service, you aren't just getting "buy this stock" tips. It’s more of a deep-dive education.
- Monthly Issues: These are long. They read more like intelligence briefings than investment newsletters. He covers things like the BRICS "M-Bridge" payment system or the "National Endowment" of resources that most Americans don't even know exists.
- Portfolio Updates: He does recommend specific ways to play these shifts. Usually, it’s a mix of "crisis-proof" stocks, energy plays, and precious metals.
- Intelligence Alerts: When a major event happens—like a sudden bank run or a geopolitical flare-up—he sends out "flash" updates to tell subscribers how to move.
Steps to take if you’re following Rickards’ lead
If the idea of strategic intelligence resonates with you, you don't necessarily need to sell your house and move to a bunker. Rickards actually advises against that. Instead, he suggests a methodical "survival" strategy for your portfolio.
Diversify into Physical Assets
Don't just buy "paper gold" (ETFs like GLD). Rickards is big on physical possession. If the exchange closes, your paper gold is just a digital IOU. Get the real stuff—coins or bars—and keep them in a safe place.
Watch the "ICE" Model
Rickards often talks about Inflation, Confiscation, and Expropriation. In 2026, keep an eye on government talk regarding "Wealth Taxes" or "Central Bank Digital Currencies" (CBDCs). These are the tools he warns will be used to trap your capital inside the system.
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Avoid High-Leverage Banks
He’s a big critic of the "too big to fail" crowd. He suggests keeping your cash in smaller, well-capitalized regional banks or even Treasury bills held directly, rather than keeping everything in a single massive commercial bank account that is exposed to derivative risk.
Focus on the "Barbell" Strategy
Put some of your money in very safe, boring things (cash, gold, short-term T-bills). Put the other end of the barbell in high-upside "strategic" plays like domestic energy production or specific tech firms that are essential to national security.
The middle? The "average" stocks? That's where he thinks most people will get slaughtered when the volatility hits.
Actionable Next Steps
To start implementing a strategic intelligence mindset today, you should audit your current liquidity.
First, determine exactly how much of your wealth is "digital" versus "tangible." Most people find they are 99% digital. Aim to move at least 5% to 10% into tangible assets—physical gold, silver, or even "junk silver" (pre-1965 U.S. coins).
Second, set up a "crash watch" list of indicators. Watch the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields and keep a close eye on the price of gold in non-dollar currencies like the Euro. If gold starts hitting all-time highs in Euros and Yen before it does in Dollars, it's a sign that the global "gold grab" Rickards warns about is accelerating.