He’s already gone.
If you’re still scouring the web for Juan Soto free agency odds or waiting for a "mystery team" to swoop in and steal him away from Queens, you’re about a year late to the party. Honestly, the ship didn't just sail; it’s halfway across the Atlantic.
Soto is a New York Met.
The drama of 2024—the clandestine meetings in California, the late-night Scott Boras leverage plays, and the frantic bidding war between the Yankees and Steve Cohen—ended with a thud that could be heard from the Bronx all the way to Citi Field. Soto signed a gargantuan 15-year, $765 million deal. It’s the kind of money that makes your eyes water. We're talking zero deferrals. Pure, liquid cash flowing into his bank account to the tune of $51 million a year.
So, why are people still talking about his "odds"?
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Basically, the conversation has shifted. It’s no longer about where he’s going, but whether he’s staying for the long haul. Because, as with every Boras special, there’s a catch. Or rather, an "out."
The Opt-Out Ghost: Why the Odds Never Truly Die
Most fans see a 15-year contract and assume that’s that. But in baseball, 15 years is an eternity. Governments change. Entire rosters turn over twice.
Soto has an opt-out after the 2029 season.
That is the date every Mets fan has circled in red ink. Right now, as we sit in January 2026, the "odds" aren't about his next team; they’re about whether he’ll actually see 2030 in a Mets uniform.
If he continues to play like he did in 2025—hitting 30+ homers, walking at a historic clip, and somehow finding the legs to steal 38 bases (a career-high, by the way)—he’s going to be underpaid. Yeah, I know. How is $51 million a year "underpaid"? It sounds insane. But if the market keeps exploding, and if guys like Kyle Tucker start commanding $50 million on short-term deals, Soto might look at the remaining $510 million on his deal in 2029 and think, "I can do better."
The Mets know this. Steve Cohen isn't a dummy.
There’s a specific clause built into the contract: the Mets can actually void his opt-out. If Soto tries to walk after 2029, the Mets can just say "nope" and bump his salary from $51 million to $55 million for the final decade. That would push the total value of the deal to $805 million.
The Real Contenders (If the Impossible Happens)
Let's play a game of "what if." Let's say the relationship soured. Let's say Soto suddenly hated the vibe in Flushing. Even though he’s under contract, the baseball world loves to speculate on the Juan Soto free agency odds for his next potential landing spot via trade or a future opt-out.
- The New York Yankees: They offered $760 million over 16 years. They were right there. Losing Soto to the Mets was a gut punch to Hal Steinbrenner. If Soto ever became available again, the Bronx remains the most logical destination. He already proved he can handle the pinstripes.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers: Never count them out. Their final offer in 2024 was reportedly $600 million, which felt like a lowball compared to the New York teams. They prefer deferrals; Soto hates them. That’s the fundamental disconnect.
- The Toronto Blue Jays: They were the dark horse in the original sweepstakes. They offered under $700 million, but their interest was real. They’re still looking for that singular "face of the franchise" bat to pair with their aging core.
- The Boston Red Sox: They were surprisingly aggressive, willing to go over $700 million. They eventually pivoted to other stars, but the Fenway faithful still dream of that short porch in right field being Soto's playground.
What 2025 Taught Us About Soto’s Value
Last season was... weird for the Mets.
Soto was brilliant. He finished third in the MVP voting. He proved that the pressure of the biggest contract in sports history didn't phase him one bit. He even started working on his defense, which had always been the one knock on his game. He told reporters recently that he’s "determined to work hard to improve" his glove work.
But the team? They missed the playoffs on a tie-breaker.
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That creates a fascinating dynamic for his future "odds." If the Mets don't win a World Series in the next three years, does Soto get restless? He’s already won one with the Nationals. He’s a winner. He wants the ring as much as the money.
Breaking Down the $765 Million Math
To understand the "odds" of him ever leaving, you have to look at the sheer scale of the commitment.
- Annual Salary: $51,000,000
- Signing Bonus: $75,000,000
- Total Guaranteed: $765,000,000
- Daily Pay (roughly): $139,000 (every single day for 15 years)
It is the largest contract for any athlete in history. Period. When you compare it to Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal, Soto’s is actually much larger because Ohtani’s money is deferred. Soto is getting his now. Because of the "time value of money," Soto’s deal is worth about $300 million more in today’s dollars than Ohtani’s.
The 2026 World Baseball Classic Factor
While free agency is settled, the "odds" of seeing Soto in a different jersey are actually 100% this spring.
He’s already confirmed he’s playing for the Dominican Republic in the 2026 WBC.
"I need permission from the boss," he joked, pointing toward Steve Cohen’s box. But make no mistake, he’s going. For Soto, playing for his country is just as important as the MLB season. He put up a 1.500 OPS in the last tournament. If he lights up the world stage again, his "stock"—as if it could get any higher—will only continue to skyrocket.
Misconceptions You Should Stop Believing
- "He's going to move to first base soon." Nope. Soto shut that down recently. He’s only 27. He’s staying in the outfield for now. He’s got at least 14 years left on this deal; there’s plenty of time to become a first baseman when he’s 35.
- "The Yankees were his first choice." Soto himself said that other teams offered more money than the Mets. He chose the Mets because of the vision. He didn't just take the highest bidder; he took the team he thought was building a dynasty.
- "He hates New York." People said this when he left the Yankees. It’s nonsense. He just moved from the Bronx to Queens. He loves the stage.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're a bettor or a hardcore fan tracking his performance, keep an eye on his "stolen base guru," Antoan Richardson. Richardson left the Mets recently, and some analysts think Soto’s stolen base numbers might dip in 2026 without that specific coaching.
Also, watch the Mets' pursuit of Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger. If Cohen lands another mega-bat, the protection for Soto in the lineup will be unprecedented. We could be looking at a .500 On-Base Percentage season.
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Next Steps for Fans:
- Monitor the Opt-Out Language: As the 2029 season approaches, the "odds" of a restructure will become the biggest story in baseball.
- Watch the WBC: See how Soto performs as the undisputed leader of the Dominican team; it’s a preview of his leadership role with the Mets.
- Check the Luxury Tax: The Mets are paying a fortune in penalties. If they don't win soon, the "odds" of a salary dump (unlikely, but possible in 2026's economic climate) might actually enter the conversation.
Soto isn't going anywhere. For now, the only "odds" that matter are his chances of hitting 50 home runs in a Mets jersey. Luck hasn't been a factor for a long time; it's all about the Benjamins.