Everything felt like it was moving way too fast back in June 2025. You remember that feeling? It was seven months ago, but the ripple effects are basically the entire reason our portfolios look the way they do right now. While everyone was distracted by the start of summer, the Federal Reserve and a handful of tech giants were quietly reshaping the economic landscape for the rest of the decade.
It wasn't just another month on the calendar.
The Interest Rate Pivot That Caught Everyone Off Guard
By the time we hit June 2025, the "higher for longer" narrative had finally started to crack. It’s funny looking back. People were genuinely terrified that inflation was going to stick at 3% forever. Then, the June CPI data hit. It was the catalyst. We saw a cooling that nobody—not even the most optimistic bulls on Wall Street—really expected to happen that quickly.
Jerome Powell’s press conference that month was legendary for its subtlety. He didn't come out and say, "Hey, we're winning." He’s too careful for that. But you could read between the lines of the FOMC statement. The shift from "inflation risks" to "employment balance" signaled that the central bank was finally ready to stop suffocating the economy. If you were watching the 10-year Treasury yield, you saw it dive. That was the moment the "soft landing" went from a pipe dream to a tangible reality.
Honestly, if you missed the bond market entry point in June 2025, you missed one of the cleanest setups we've seen in years. It was a classic case of the market knowing something before the general public caught on.
The AI Capex Reality Check
While the Fed was doing its thing, Silicon Valley was hitting a wall. Or at least, a speed bump. Seven months ago, we started seeing the first real signs of "AI fatigue" in corporate earnings.
Microsoft and Alphabet had spent billions—absolute mountains of cash—on data centers. Investors started asking a very uncomfortable question: "Where is the revenue?" It wasn't that AI was failing. Far from it. It was just that the timeline for ROI (return on investment) was stretching out. We saw a brief but sharp rotation out of the "Magnificent Seven" and into mid-cap stocks. It was a healthy correction, though it didn't feel like it if you were heavy on Nvidia at the time.
Energy Markets and the Unexpected Stability
Everyone predicted a massive spike in oil prices heading into the summer of 2025. They were wrong.
Despite the geopolitical tension that seems to be our permanent backdrop these days, production stayed surprisingly high. The US shale output actually hit record levels in June 2025. This kept a lid on gas prices right when the travel season was peaking. It was a huge win for the consumer discretionary sector. People had extra cash. They spent it on experiences.
You’ve probably noticed that airline tickets and hotel stays haven't actually dropped in price since then, even though fuel costs stabilized. That’s because June 2025 proved that the "experience economy" wasn't a post-pandemic fluke. It’s the new baseline. People would rather skip a new couch to afford a week in Portugal.
The Crypto Regulatory "Clarity" Moment
We can't talk about seven months ago without mentioning the SEC. The mid-2025 rulings regarding secondary market sales of digital assets finally gave institutional desks the green light they’d been waiting for. It wasn't a "moon" moment immediately. It was more like a professionalization. The "Wild West" era ended in June 2025, replaced by a boring, regulated, but ultimately more stable framework.
What This Means for Your Strategy Today
If you're looking at your accounts now, in early 2026, you're seeing the fruit of what was planted back then. The companies that doubled down on efficiency during that June cooling period are the ones leading the S&P 500 today.
We learned that hype fades, but liquidity is king. When the Fed signaled that pivot, liquidity started flowing back into the system. That’s why the small-cap rally we’re seeing now has legs. It started seven months ago.
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- Review your tech exposure. Are you holding companies that just talk about AI, or companies that are actually using it to cut costs? June 2025 was the dividing line.
- Check your debt structures. If you didn't refinance or lock in rates when the 10-year dipped seven months ago, you might have missed the bottom, but there are still windows opening as the Fed continues its gradual descent.
- Watch the consumer. The resilience we saw in June 2025 is starting to show some wear and tear now. Savings rates are lower than they were then.
The biggest takeaway from seven months ago is that the market is remarkably good at pricing in the future. By the time the news feels "good," the opportunity is usually gone. The chaos of June 2025 was actually a massive signal for the stability we’re enjoying now.
To capitalize on this, you need to stop looking at the daily noise and start looking at these six-to-nine-month cycles. The next "June 2025" moment is likely brewing right now in the energy sector or the emerging biotechnology space. Stay liquid, stay skeptical of hype, and remember that the best moves are often made when everyone else is arguing about the wrong things.