The rivalry between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens has basically become the NFL's version of a heavyweight title fight that happens twice a year. If you watched the 2024 matchups, you know it wasn’t just about the box scores. It was about inches. Literally. Specifically, the length of Isaiah Likely's toe.
Most people look at Kansas City vs Baltimore 2024 and see two games where Patrick Mahomes outlasted Lamar Jackson. But that’s a surface-level take. Honestly, if you dig into the tape, the gap between these two rosters is razor-thin, yet the mental hurdle for Baltimore seems to get taller every time they step onto the field with Andy Reid’s squad.
The Toe That Changed the 2024 Season Opener
Let's talk about the September 5 kickoff. The atmosphere at Arrowhead was electric, partially because Taylor Swift was in the building, but mostly because the Ravens looked like they finally had the muscle to bully the Chiefs. They’d just added Derrick Henry—the "King"—to a backfield that already featured a two-time MVP in Lamar Jackson.
On paper, Baltimore dominated. They had 452 total yards compared to Kansas City’s 353. Lamar ran for 122 yards himself. But then came the final play.
Jackson found Isaiah Likely in the back of the end zone as time expired. The stadium went silent. It looked like a touchdown. A two-point conversion attempt was looming. Then, the replay zoomed in. Likely’s black cleat was touching the white paint of the end line by a fraction of an inch.
"I thought it was a touchdown," Jackson said afterward, looking visibly drained.
It wasn't. Chiefs win 27-20.
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But why did it even come to that? The real story was Xavier Worthy. The rookie with 4.21 speed only touched the ball three times, yet he scored twice. He burned the Ravens' defense for a 21-yard rushing score and a 35-yard receiving touchdown. Kansas City doesn't need to be better for 60 minutes; they just need to be more explosive for three seconds.
The AFC Championship Heartbreak
To understand the 2024 season opener, you have to remember the January 28 AFC Championship game. That was the first half of the Kansas City vs Baltimore 2024 saga. Baltimore entered that game as the #1 seed, playing at home, with a defense that felt historic.
Then Travis Kelce happened.
Kelce put on an absolute clinic in the first half, catching all 11 of his targets for 116 yards. He was playing chess while the Ravens' secondary was playing checkers. He and Mahomes have this telepathic connection where they just find the soft spot in a zone.
- Kelce caught a 19-yard TD over Kyle Hamilton.
- Isiah Pacheco punched in a 2-yarder.
- The Chiefs went up 17-7 at the half.
The second half was a defensive slugfest, but Baltimore beat themselves. Zay Flowers had a monster 54-yard catch, then got a taunting penalty. Moments later, he fumbled at the goal line while diving for a score. That fumble changed everything. Instead of a 17-14 game, it stayed 17-7. The Ravens went away from the run—giving Derrick Henry (who was with the Titans then, obviously) zero chance to help them—and Lamar started forcing throws into triple coverage.
Mahomes vs Jackson: The Statistical Reality
People love to debate who’s better. Lamar is the more dynamic athlete. Mahomes is the better winner. It sounds cliché, but the 2024 games proved it.
In their head-to-head history through 2024, Mahomes is 5-1 against Jackson. That's a staggering stat. When they play each other, Mahomes averages over 300 passing yards. Jackson usually dominates the ground but struggles to maintain a completion percentage over 60% against Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz-heavy schemes.
Spagnuolo is the "Lamar Whisperer." In both 2024 games, he used "spy" techniques and disguised pressures that forced Lamar to hold the ball a half-second too long. That half-second is where Chris Jones lives.
Why the Ravens Keep Falling Short
It’s not a talent issue. Baltimore's roster is arguably deeper. The problem is composure.
In the AFC Championship, the Ravens looked "panicky." That’s the word several analysts used. They committed 8 penalties for 95 yards, many of them personal fouls. They got baited into trash-talking with Kelce and Mahomes. By the time they regained their cool, the clock was their biggest enemy.
In the September rematch, the Ravens' offensive line was the weak link. Daniel Faalele and Andrew Vorhees struggled to handle the interior pressure. If you can't protect Lamar, his brilliance is capped.
Key Takeaways for Future Matchups
If you're betting on or analyzing these two teams moving forward, keep these specific factors in mind:
- The 12 Personnel Factor: In 2024, the Ravens used two-tight end sets (Likely and Mark Andrews) on over 50% of their plays. It's their most dangerous look.
- The Spagnuolo Effect: Until Baltimore finds a way to handle the "creeper" blitzes from Kansas City's secondary, Lamar will continue to struggle with turnovers in these high-stakes games.
- Worthy’s Vertical Gravity: Xavier Worthy has changed how teams have to defend the Chiefs. You can’t double Kelce anymore because Worthy will take the top off the defense.
- Discipline: Baltimore must stop the post-play penalties. The Chiefs are masters at getting under an opponent's skin to trigger a 15-yard gift.
The Kansas City vs Baltimore 2024 series showed us that the Ravens have the "King" in Henry and the "MVP" in Jackson, but the Chiefs have the "Clutch." Sometimes, a game of football really does come down to a single toe on a white line.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts:
- Watch the Offensive Line: In future rematches, focus on Baltimore's Right Guard and Right Tackle. If they can't anchor, the Ravens' run game dies.
- Track Red Zone Efficiency: Baltimore outgained Kansas City in both 2024 meetings but failed to convert in the red zone. This is the metric that actually decides this rivalry.
- Study the "Spy" Defender: Look for Leo Chenal or Nick Bolton. How they shadow Lamar tells you exactly how the game will go by the second quarter.