You think you know how this goes. Patrick Mahomes rolls out, flicking a sidearm prayer that somehow finds a sprinting receiver while Myles Garrett is inches away from ending the play. It’s the "David vs. Goliath" narrative people love to slap on this matchup, but if you’ve actually watched the tape from their recent meetings, it’s a lot messier than that.
The KC Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns rivalry isn't just a lopsided AFC affair. It’s a recurring fever dream of turnovers and missed opportunities.
Take their Week 15 clash in December 2024. Most fans expected a blowout. On paper, it kind of was, with the Chiefs winning 21-7. But the box score is a liar. If you look at the 311 total yards Cleveland put up compared to Kansas City’s 266, you’d think the Browns dominated. They didn't. They just couldn't stop giving the ball away.
👉 See also: RBC Canadian Open Golf Withdrawals: What Really Happened with the Field
Six turnovers.
Seriously. Six. You can't win a middle school game with six turnovers, let alone beat a team coached by Andy Reid. Jameis Winston threw three picks, and the Chiefs defense basically pitched a tent in the Cleveland backfield.
The Mahomes Struggle Nobody Mentions
Everyone talks about "Mahomes Magic." But honestly, against the Browns lately? He's been kinda human.
In that same 2024 game, Mahomes was—dare I say—bad. He went 19-of-38 for a meager 159 yards. That is not the stat line of a guy winning his fourth Super Bowl. He was pressured on almost every dropback. Joe Thuney, who is an absolute legend at guard, was forced to play left tackle, and it was a disaster. He allowed eight pressures.
Myles Garrett didn't get a sack that day, but he was everywhere. He lived in the pocket.
The Chiefs won because their defense is a buzzsaw, not because the offense was clicking. Most people forget that the Chiefs defense forced a three-and-out on the opening drive, only for Cleveland to muddle the punt return and give KC the ball at the 21-yard line. Easy points. That’s been the story of the KC Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns history lately: Kansas City doesn't always beat the Browns; sometimes the Browns just beat themselves.
Why the 2021 Playoff Game Still Haunts Cleveland
If you want to understand the soul of this matchup, you have to go back to January 17, 2021. The AFC Divisional round.
This was the "Henne-thing is Possible" game.
Mahomes went out with a concussion. The air sucked out of Arrowhead. Cleveland had all the momentum. Baker Mayfield was dealing. Nick Chubb was grinding out yards. But then, the touchback heard 'round the world happened. Rashard Higgins reached for the pylon, Daniel Sorensen knocked the ball loose, and it rolled out of the end zone.
Instead of a touchdown, it was a turnover.
Kansas City hung on to win 22-17. It’s a game of inches, sure, but for Browns fans, it felt like a game of cosmic injustice. That win moved Andy Reid to 7-0 in his career against Cleveland at the time. It’s a psychological hurdle that the Browns haven't quite cleared yet.
The Ground Game Reality
People focus on the quarterbacks, but the real war is in the trenches.
- Jerome Ford's Speed: In 2024, Ford broke off a 62-yard touchdown run that made the Chiefs' secondary look like they were standing in wet concrete. He finished with over 100 total yards.
- Kareem Hunt's Revenge: Seeing Hunt in a Chiefs jersey again after his time in Cleveland adds a weird layer of drama. He hasn't been explosive, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry in recent matchups, but he knows that Browns defense better than anyone.
- The Nick Chubb Factor: When Chubb is healthy, the math changes. But in that 2024 game, he left with a foot injury. Cleveland’s identity is tied to #24. Without him, they’re just another team trying to out-throw Mahomes, which is a losing bet.
Defensive Identity Crisis
The Chiefs defense under Steve Spagnuolo has become the most underrated unit in football. In 2025, they were top-tier in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. They don't just stop you; they take the ball. In that December 2024 game, they had four interceptions and two fumble recoveries.
✨ Don't miss: Highest Paid College Football Coach: Why Kirby Smart Still Owns the Top Spot
Meanwhile, the Browns have the talent—Jim Schwartz’s unit is terrifying—but they lack the discipline. They commit "costly penalties" at the worst times. In their playoff history against KC, the Browns have actually out-gained the Chiefs in total yardage at times, but the "hidden yards" (penalties and special teams) always go the other way.
What to Watch for in 2026
Both teams are in a weird spot now.
Kansas City is dealing with a coaching exodus. Matt Nagy is interviewing for head coaching jobs. There's talk of Steve Spagnuolo finally getting another shot at a lead role. When the brains behind the operation leave, the "Mahomes Magic" has to work overtime.
Cleveland is potentially looking at a total reset. Kevin Stefanski is a great coach, but after a 6-11 season in 2025, the seat is getting warm. They need a quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over three times a game. Whether that's a healthy Deshaun Watson or someone else, the margin for error against Kansas City is exactly zero.
✨ Don't miss: Finding the Best Memorial Stadium Lincoln Photos Without the Crowd Noise
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
- Watch the Turnover Margin: In the last three KC Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns games, the team that won the turnover battle won the game 100% of the time. It sounds obvious, but Cleveland is historically horrific here.
- The "Under" is Usually Safer: Despite the "explosive" labels, these games are often defensive struggles. In 2024, the total was 28 points. The line was 41.
- Check the O-Line Health: If the Chiefs are missing a tackle, Myles Garrett will wreck the game plan. Mahomes' passer rating drops by nearly 30 points when he’s pressured on more than 40% of snaps.
- Jerome Ford is the X-Factor: He’s consistently been the most productive player for Cleveland against KC's front seven. If he gets 15+ carries, the game stays close.
The gap between these two teams isn't as wide as the records suggest. It's a gap of discipline. Until the Browns can play 60 minutes of clean football, they’ll keep being the team that "almost" beat the Chiefs.
Monitor the injury reports for Isiah Pacheco and Nick Chubb leading up to the next kickoff. If both are healthy, expect a ground-heavy battle that defies the modern "passing league" narrative. Pay close attention to the Chiefs' offensive coordinator hire this offseason, as a shift in play-calling style could be the only way to protect Mahomes from the relentless Cleveland pass rush.