If you spent the weeks leading up to the 151st Run for the Roses staring at Journalism and his monster Beyer Speed Figures, you weren't alone. Most of the betting public did the exact same thing. We saw the 108 he hung in the San Felipe and the way he dismantled the field in the Santa Anita Derby, and we figured the 2025 Kentucky Derby was basically a coronation.
But horse racing is never that simple, especially when the clouds open up over Louisville.
When you look back at the Kentucky Derby 2025 past performances, the clues for Sovereignty's upset were actually hiding in plain sight. It wasn't just about who was the fastest on a fast track in April; it was about who had the "bottom" to survive ten furlongs in a Churchill Downs soup. Sovereignty, a son of Into Mischief trained by the legendary Bill Mott, didn't have the flashy triple-digit speed figures of the favorite, but he had something much more valuable: a relentless grinding style and a pedigree that screams "I don't care if it's raining."
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The Numbers Nobody Wanted to See
Basically, the "wise guy" money was all over Journalism because, on paper, he looked like a freak. He was coming in with a massive 108 Beyer. To put that in perspective, most Derby winners are lucky to crack a 102 or 103 in their final prep.
But check out Sovereignty's line. He had a 95 in the Florida Derby where he finished second. Boring, right? Well, not if you look at the gallop-out. Under Junior Alvarado, Sovereignty actually passed the winner about two jumps after the wire. He was just getting warmed up at nine furlongs.
Why the Florida Derby Was the Key
In the 2025 Florida Derby, Sovereignty got stuck behind a wall of horses. He didn't have that "one-way" speed that Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull possessed. Instead, he showed he could take dirt in his face and keep coming. Honestly, that’s the most important trait a horse can have in a 19-horse field.
- Sovereignty’s Final Prep: 2nd in the Florida Derby (G1).
- Speed Figure: 95 Beyer (solid, but not elite).
- The "Secret" Factor: He ran the final 3/8ths of the Florida Derby in :37.12—that’s moving.
What Really Happened with the Pace?
Everyone thought Citizen Bull was going to rocket out of the gate and never look back. He drew the rail, post 1, which is usually a death sentence. Baffert even told the Daily Racing Form that they were going to "send" him because speed was his only weapon.
He did send. He went :22.81 for the first quarter. That is a blistering pace for a mile-and-a-quarter race on a sloppy, sealed track. By the time they hit the half-mile in :46.23, the front-runners were already cooked. You could see it at the top of the stretch. Citizen Bull started pedaling backward, eventually finishing 15th.
This created a massive vacuum for the closers. Baeza, a horse who wasn't even supposed to be in the race until Rodriguez was scratched, started picking off horses from 15th place. If you looked at Baeza’s Kentucky Derby 2025 past performances, he was a total wildcard—a half-brother to Mage (the 2023 winner) who had only broken his maiden two starts prior. He ended up finishing third at 13-1, proving that lineage matters more than experience when the track turns to mud.
The Journalism Heartbreak
Journalism ran a winning race. He really did. He tracked the pace, made a move at the three-eighths pole, and actually had the lead for a second. But he’d used up so much energy chasing those crazy fractions that he had nothing left to hold off Sovereignty.
Sovereignty didn't just win; he powered away to a 1 1/2 length victory in a final time of 2:02.31. It was a classic Bill Mott performance—peaking a horse at exactly the right moment. It was Mott's second Derby win, following the controversial Country House victory in 2019, but this one felt a lot more "earned" since there was no steward intervention required.
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The 2025 Finish Order and Payouts
The exotics were actually pretty lucrative because the favorites (aside from Journalism) completely cratered. Sandman, who many thought would relish the distance, finished a disappointing 7th.
- 1st: Sovereignty ($17.96 to win)
- 2nd: Journalism ($4.94 to place)
- 3rd: Baeza ($8.38 to show)
- 4th: Final Gambit (The Turfway specialist who actually handled the dirt okay)
- 5th: Owen Almighty (A 40-1 longshot that filled out a massive $38,405 Super High-Five)
Actionable Betting Insights from 2025
If you’re looking at these past performances to learn for future Derbies, there are three massive takeaways.
First off, ignore the "fastest" horse if they got their speed figure on a perfectly manicured, speed-favoring track in California or Florida. Journalism’s 108 Beyer was a trap because it was earned on a "trampoline" surface.
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Secondly, look for the "grinders." Sovereignty’s :37.12 final fraction in the Florida Derby was the most predictive stat of the entire 2025 season. It told us he could sustain a run for a long time.
Finally, pay attention to the Godolphin factor. They swept the Oaks with Good Cheer and the Derby with Sovereignty on the same weekend. When a powerhouse barn like that is "live," they usually have the best-prepared horses in the country.
To truly understand how this race was won, you should go back and watch the overhead replay of the first turn. You'll see Sovereignty bobble at the start and drop back to 16th. Most jockeys would have panicked. Junior Alvarado didn't. He sat, waited, and let the speed horses destroy each other. That's how you win the Derby.
You should download the full Equibase chart for the 151st Kentucky Derby and compare the internal fractions. Notice how the fourth quarter-mile was run in :26.06—the slowest of the race. This is where Sovereignty made his move, passing tired horses that were essentially running in place. It’s a masterclass in pace analysis that applies to every Triple Crown race you'll ever handicap.