If you’re looking at the Kentucky Derby 2025 points standings right now and feeling a little bit like the math isn't mathing, you aren't alone. Horse racing is usually pretty straightforward—first one to the wire wins. But the "Road to the Derby" is this convoluted, high-stakes game of musical chairs where points are the only currency that matters.
The 2025 cycle has been a wild one. We’ve seen favorites get sidelined, underdogs steal 100-point races, and a leaderboard that looks nothing like what the "experts" predicted back in November. Honestly, if you had Burnham Square topping the list at 130 points this time last year, you should probably be playing the lottery instead of reading this.
Who Is Actually Leading the Pack?
The current standings are a mix of blue-blooded stable stars and horses that basically came out of nowhere. As of mid-January 2026, looking back at the 151st running's qualification cycle, the top tier was solidified by a few massive performances in the spring of 2025.
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Burnham Square sits at the summit with 130 points. Ian Wilkes has done a masterclass with this horse. The win in the Blue Grass Stakes was the clincher. Then you’ve got Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, right on his heels with 129 points. It’s a razor-thin margin. Sandman earned a huge chunk of those by taking the Arkansas Derby, proving that he wasn't just a "fast track" specialist but could handle the grit of Oaklawn.
The Top 10 Breakdown (The Heavy Hitters)
- Burnham Square (130 pts): The king of the hill. Wilkes-trained and consistently professional.
- Sandman (129 pts): The bridesmaid by a single point, but arguably the most explosive closer in the field.
- Journalism (122.5 pts): Michael McCarthy’s runner. He secured his spot with a gritty win in the Santa Anita Derby.
- Rodriguez (121.25 pts): A Bob Baffert trainee that, despite the usual headlines, put up the numbers. He was a late scratch for some, but his 121 points were undeniable.
- Tiztastic (119 pts): Steve Asmussen has a real one here. Winner of the Louisiana Derby.
- Sovereignty (110 pts): Bill Mott’s Godolphin runner who picked up 50 points in the Fountain of Youth.
- Final Gambit (100 pts): Brad Cox secured this one via the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
- Coal Battle (95 pts): Lonnie Briley’s underdog story. This horse won the Rebel and the Springboard Mile.
- Chunk of Gold (75 pts): Ethan West’s sleeper.
- Citizen Bull (71.25 pts): Another Baffert horse that took the American Pharoah and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (30 points).
It's a weird list. You see decimals because of how points are split in dead heats or when fields are small. Churchill Downs implemented a rule where if a Championship Series race has five or fewer horses, they actually dock the points. It’s meant to stop horses from "backing into" the Derby by winning tiny, uncompetitive fields.
The "New" Points System: What Most People Missed
Churchill Downs changed the math. Again. For the 2025 cycle, they expanded the points to the top five finishers. It used to be just the top four. That fifth-place point—usually just 1, 2, or 5 points—doesn't seem like much, does it?
But look at Baeza. That horse is sitting at 37.5 points. Those "scraps" from the fourth and fifth-place finishes in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby are literally the reason he’s even in the conversation. Without that fifth-place payout, he’d be watching the race from a barn in California.
Also, the Virginia Derby joined the party. It was the first time a Derby prep was held in Virginia on the dirt at Colonial Downs. American Promise took that one, grabbing 50 points and basically punching a ticket to Louisville in one afternoon. It’s a game-changer for mid-Atlantic trainers who used to have to ship to New York or Florida to find points.
Why the Leaderboard Is So Volatile
Horses are fragile. That sounds like a cliché, but look at Tappan Street. Brad Cox had him ranked near the top with 110 points after a massive Florida Derby win. Then, a minor injury. Just like that, 110 points mean nothing because the horse can't run.
This happens every year, but 2025 felt particularly brutal. When a top-five horse drops out, everyone below them slides up. This is why horses with 40 or 50 points—like Neoequos or Flying Mohawk—are so important. They are the "on the bubble" crew. If you have 50 points, you're usually safe, but you're sweating until the final entry list is typed up.
The International Wildcards
We can't ignore the Japan and Euro/Mideast roads. Luxor Cafe took the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. Japanese horses aren't just "participating" anymore; they are winning. Then there’s Admire Daytona, who dominated the UAE Derby at Meydan to get 100 points. The fact that the UAE Derby is now officially part of the Euro/Mideast Road rebranding changed the travel logistics for a lot of these barns.
Actionable Insights for Horse Players
If you're trying to make sense of the Kentucky Derby 2025 points standings for betting or just to sound smart at the sports bar, keep these three things in mind:
- Look at the "Points per Start": A horse like Journalism earned his 122 points in very few starts. That means he’s fresh. A horse like Coal Battle has been grinding since December. Grinders often peak too early.
- Ignore the "Bypassing" Horses: Wikipedia and official leaderboards often list horses like River Thames or Flood Zone near the top. But if they are labeled "bypassing," they aren't running. Don't let their high point totals distract you from the actual field.
- The 50-Point Threshold: Historically, 40 points is the "maybe" line. 50 points is the "book your hotel" line. If a horse hasn't hit 50 by the end of March, they need a miracle in the Lexington Stakes (the last-call race worth 20 points).
The Road to the Derby isn't a sprint; it's an elimination diet. By the time they get to the first Saturday in May, the leaderboard has been chewed up and spit out a dozen times.
To stay ahead, you need to monitor the weekly workout reports for the top 20. Points get you into the gate, but the morning gallops tell you who’s actually going to win the roses. Keep an eye on the "Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings" too—that’s the tiebreaker. If two horses have 50 points, the one who won more money in big races gets the stall.
Check the official Churchill Downs leaderboard for the most recent scratches, as the "also-eligible" list usually starts forming about ten days before the race.