Latest NFL Mock Drafts: Why Fernando Mendoza is the New QB1

The NFL draft cycle is basically a fever dream that never actually ends. Just as the 2025 regular season settles into the rearview mirror, we’re staring down a 2026 class that looks radically different than it did even three months ago. Honestly, if you haven’t checked the latest NFL mock drafts in the last 48 hours, you’re already behind.

The biggest bombshell? Dante Moore, the Oregon signal-caller who many had penciled in as a locked-in top-two pick, just announced he’s heading back to Eugene for another year. This isn't just a minor ripple. It’s a tectonic shift that has left quarterback-needy teams like the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals scrambling for a Plan B.

The Fernando Mendoza Era Begins

With Moore out of the 2026 picture, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza has effectively seized the throne. It’s a wild rise for a guy who started the year as a "maybe" prospect.

Mendoza is 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds of pure pocket-passing efficiency. He didn't just put up numbers for the Hoosiers; he led the FBS with 41 passing touchdowns while completing a staggering 73 percent of his passes. Most scouts, including those contributing to recent PFF and WalterFootball mocks, now have him as the undisputed No. 1 overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Raiders are sitting in that top spot with a 3-14 record, and after the Geno Smith experiment went south fast, they need a savior. Mendoza’s poise in road wins against Oregon and Penn State has convinced the league he’s the real deal. He’s the kind of "decisive" thrower that NFL GMs drool over during the Combine.

What about the Jets at No. 2?

The New York Jets are in a weird spot. They were heavily linked to Moore, but with him staying in school, the latest NFL mock drafts are starting to pivot toward the defensive side of the ball.

If they don't fall in love with Ty Simpson out of Alabama, expect them to look at a game-wrecker like Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. He’s 270 pounds of nightmare for offensive tackles. Some mocks even suggest the Jets might trade back, as teams like the Cleveland Browns or Miami Dolphins could be desperate enough to jump up for whichever quarterback is left standing.

The Arch Manning Mystery

You can't talk about a mock draft without the Manning name coming up. It’s basically a law.

Arch Manning’s 2025 season at Texas was... complicated. He had flashes of brilliance, like those four-touchdown performances against Arkansas, but he also looked like a first-year starter in the SEC. The consensus right now? He’s likely staying in Austin for 2026.

However, if he pulls a 180 and declares, the draft board explodes. Scouts like those interviewed by Fox Sports still see him as a "first-round lock" based on pure talent alone. If he’s in, he’s a threat to Mendoza for that top spot. If he’s out, the 2027 draft is going to be absolutely loaded with Manning, Moore, and LaNorris Sellers.

Defensive Titans and Trench Warriors

While the quarterbacks get the headlines, this 2026 class is actually defined by elite defensive talent and massive human beings on the offensive line.

• Arvell Reese (Ohio State): The Cardinals at No. 3 are increasingly linked to this linebacker. He’s a downhill thumper with eight sacks this year. He’s not just a run-stuffer; he’s a sideline-to-sideline athlete.
• Francis Mauigoa (Miami): The Giants are sitting at No. 5, and while they need help everywhere, Mauigoa is the safe, smart bet. He’s a natural right tackle who allowed only one sack all season. Pairing him with Andrew Thomas gives New York two legitimate bookends.
• Caleb Downs (Ohio State): The safety position usually doesn't go top-ten, but Downs is the exception. He’s been a star since he stepped onto Alabama's campus before transferring to the Buckeyes. The Washington Commanders at No. 7 are a perfect fit here to fix a secondary that’s been leaking yards for years.

Draft Order and Key Slots

The top of the order is officially locked in. The Raiders, Jets, and Cardinals hold the keys to the kingdom.

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1. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
2. New York Jets (3-14)
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-14)
4. Tennessee Titans (3-14)
5. New York Giants (4-13)
6. Cleveland Browns (5-12)

It’s a tight race at the bottom. The fact that four teams finished with three wins tells you everything you need to know about the parity (or lack thereof) at the top of the board.

Why the Board Will Change Again

Mock drafts are educated guesses, but they’re still guesses. We haven't had the Senior Bowl. We haven't had the Combine. We haven't had the inevitable "anonymous scout" trashing a guy's work ethic because he wore his hat backward in an interview.

Nico Iamaleava is the ultimate wild card. After transferring to UCLA, he’s shown elite arm talent but has been inconsistent. If he puts together a monster offseason, he could jump from a projected late-round pick back into the first-round conversation. The physical tools are there—6-foot-6 with a cannon—but the "processing" needs to catch up to the "potential."

Then you have the trade factor. The Miami Dolphins are reportedly "done" with the Tua era. They pick at No. 11. To get Mendoza, they’d have to mortgage the future to jump the Raiders. It's the kind of move that either builds a statue for a GM or gets him fired by October.

Actionable Insights for Fans

If you're following the latest NFL mock drafts to win your dynasty league or just to argue with your uncle at Sunday dinner, keep these three things in mind:

• Watch the Declarations: The Moore news proved that "projected" doesn't mean "certain." Until a player officially signs those papers, they aren't in the pool.
• Ignore the "Draft Needs" in January: Teams will fill holes in free agency first. A team that "needs" a WR now might sign a veteran in March, making that mock draft pick irrelevant.
• Value the Trenches: In a "weak" QB year, GMs default to the big guys. If you see a lot of offensive tackles and edge rushers climbing into the top ten, it's because the league is scared of the quarterback options.

The road to Pittsburgh for the 2026 NFL Draft is just starting to heat up. Keep an eye on the medical reports from the Combine; that’s where the real movement happens.