Lions post-free agency power rankings: Why the Experts are Wrong

Lions post-free agency power rankings: Why the Experts are Wrong

Honestly, the national media just doesn't get Detroit.

Every single year, we see the same "Lions post-free agency power rankings" drop, and every year, they miss the point. They look at the big splashy names, the $100 million contracts, and the "mercenary" signings. If you aren't winning the March "paper championship," the analysts act like you're standing still.

But Brad Holmes doesn't play that game. He never has.

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After a 2025 season that felt like a punch to the gut—missing the playoffs despite finishing 3rd in DVOA—the Lions entered this 2026 offseason at a crossroads. The "window" talk is getting loud. People are panicking because the secondary was a revolving door of injuries and the offensive line, once our crown jewel, looked human for the first time in years.

If you look at where the Lions sit in the 2026 post-free agency hierarchy, most outlets have them hovering around 12th to 15th. They see the retirement of Frank Ragnow and the potential exit of Taylor Decker as "catastrophic."

I'm here to tell you that’s a surface-level take.

The Lions post-free agency power rankings: Deconstructing the "Average" Grade

The consensus right now is that Detroit is a "middle-of-the-pack" team that lost its identity. The Ringer has them at 13th. CBS Sports and Yahoo both slotted them at 16th.

It feels disrespectful.

The logic? They point to the "stagnation" of the roster. They see a team that didn't go out and give $25 million a year to a pass rusher like Trey Hendrickson or a "mercenary" like Joey Bosa. Instead, Holmes doubled down on guys like D.J. Reed and Roy Lopez while banking on the health of Aidan Hutchinson and Kerby Joseph.

Here is the thing: You can’t rank a team based solely on who they bought. You have to rank them on who is returning.

  • Aidan Hutchinson: He was basically the DPOY frontrunner before the leg injury in '24. He came back in '25 with 14.5 sacks and 100 pressures. He is a top-3 edge player in the league.
  • Jack Campbell: A First Team All-Pro last year. Period. 179 tackles. He is the heart of the defense now.
  • The "Health Factor": Kerby Joseph was limited to six games. Brian Branch tore his Achilles in Week 14. Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed both had IR stints.

If the Lions are 15th in the power rankings because they "didn't add enough," that ranking assumes their 2025 injury luck repeats. That’s a bad bet. When this defense is actually on the field together, it's a top-10 unit.

Why the "Experts" are obsessed with the wrong things

We need to talk about the offensive line.

Everyone is crying about Frank Ragnow being gone. It hurts. He was the soul of that room. And yes, the "breadcrumbs" were there for his retirement, but the timing sucked. Seeing Jared Goff "fighting for his life" behind rookies like Tate Ratledge and Christian Mahogany wasn't fun.

But Brad Holmes isn't a moron.

The reason the Lions are often lower in these post-free agency lists is that Holmes refuses to overpay for "entry-level" veterans. He flat out said the "get-in-the-door" price for corners was $16 million. He’d rather find a D.J. Reed—who fits the culture "like a glove"—than chase a name that doesn't tackle.

The critics say the Lions are "going backwards." I say they are recalibrating.

They kept the core. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Jared Goff are all locked in. You don't lose your window when your three most important offensive players are in their prime. The rankings reflect a fear of the unknown at guard and center, but they ignore that the Lions still finished 4th in the league in scoring (28.3 ppg) even with a "struggling" line.

The Missing Piece: The 2026 Draft Philosophy Shift

There is a real tension in Allen Park right now.

For five years, Holmes has been the king of the "developmental" pick. He loves the high-upside guys, the players coming off injuries who fall to the 3rd or 4th round. But the 2025 rookie class ranked 22nd in production.

The "Lions post-free agency power rankings" don't account for the fact that Detroit is likely going to be more aggressive in the 2026 Draft. No more "wait and see."

They need an edge rusher opposite Hutchinson. Al-Quadin Muhammad was a great story with 11.5 sacks, but he's a complementary piece. To jump from 15th back into the top 5, the Lions need a "polished diamond" at pick #17.

What the Rankings Get Right (And What They Don't)

Let's be real for a second. There are valid reasons to be nervous.

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The NFC North is a meat grinder. The Vikings, Packers, and Bears aren't the doormats they used to be. If the Lions' secondary doesn't stay healthy, it doesn't matter how many sacks Hutch gets.

But look at the DVOA.

Being 3rd in the entire NFL in DVOA and missing the playoffs is a statistical anomaly. It’s a fluke. Usually, that team comes back the next year and tears the league apart. The power rankings should reflect the potential of that roster, not just the results of a weird, injury-plagued season.

The truth about the Lions' current standing:

  1. Salary Cap Reality: They are technically "tight," but they can open up $50 million tomorrow by restructuring Goff's deal. They have the ammo. They just choose not to fire it all at once.
  2. The OC Factor: Losing Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn was tough. John Morton didn't work out. But Dan Campbell taking over play-calling showed that the system is bigger than one person.
  3. The Secondary Depth: Signing Avonte Maddox and Rock Ya-Sin might not be "sexy," but it's the kind of depth that wins games in December when the starters' hamstrings start barking.

Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season

If you're a fan or a bettor looking at these rankings, don't just follow the "15th overall" tag. Look at the context.

  • Watch the Goff Restructure: If Holmes pulls that trigger before the draft, expect a massive move for a veteran tackle or edge. That would immediately vault Detroit back into the top 8.
  • Monitor the IOL Health: The success of the 2026 season depends on whether Mahogany and Ratledge can make the "Year 2 Leap." If they do, the Lions' offense becomes unstoppable again.
  • Draft Day Urgency: If the Lions go "Best Player Available" again on a project, be worried. If they take a day-one starter at Edge or Guard, they are "all-in."

The Lions aren't a middle-of-the-pack team. They are a powerhouse that had a bad year of luck. These power rankings will look very different by October.

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To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the official Detroit Lions transactions page for any late-wave veteran signings. Also, check out OverTheCap's updated 2026 projections to see how much room Holmes has created following the recent reserve/future contract flurries. Focus on the interior offensive line battle during OTAs—that's where the 2026 season will be won or lost.