Honestly, if you've lived in Onondaga County for more than a week, you know the "official" weather report is basically just a polite suggestion. You wake up in Liverpool, look out the window toward Onondaga Lake, and see a wall of white. Meanwhile, your cousin in Cicero is texting you about the "beautiful morning sun." That’s just the reality of the weather forecast liverpool new york residents deal with every single winter.
It's currently the middle of January 2026, and the atmosphere is doing that weird Central New York dance where it can't decide if it wants to be a frozen tundra or a slushy mess. As of right now, we’re sitting at a biting 14°F. But thanks to that 13 mph wind coming off the west, it actually feels like 0°F out there. If you're heading out to the Village or grabbing coffee near Oswego Street, you’ve probably noticed the light snow showers. They aren't "storms" in the traditional sense, just that constant, gritty Central New York confetti that makes the roads look like a powdered donut.
The Immediate Outlook: Shovels at the Ready
Today, Friday, January 16, we’re looking at a high of 29°F. That sounds almost tropical compared to the -0°F wind chill we’ve been sporting, but don't get too comfortable. We have about a 25% chance of snow showers during the day, which jumps up to 35% tonight as it turns cloudy. The low will dip to 13°F. It’s that classic "gray-sky Liverpool" vibe where the sun is more of a theoretical concept than a physical reality.
Tomorrow, Saturday, January 17, is where things get interesting. We’re actually going to see a high of 38°F. That’s the "mild" part of the January cycle. However, with a 40% chance of snow showers during the day, it’s probably going to be more of a "heavy, wet slush" situation than a "winter wonderland" moment. By the time we hit Sunday, the temperature drops back down to a high of 26°F with mostly cloudy skies. Basically, it’s a weekend of temperature whiplash.
Why Liverpool Weather is a Total Wildcard
Most people think they understand the weather forecast liverpool new york provides, but they forget about the "Fetch." No, not the Mean Girls thing. I’m talking about the distance wind travels over open water. Liverpool sits in a very specific spot where it gets "the double whammy."
- The Lake Ontario Engine: Cold air screams down from Canada, hits the relatively warm, unfrozen water of Lake Ontario, and picks up moisture like a giant sponge.
- The Onondaga Microclimate: Because Liverpool is tucked right against Onondaga Lake, we often get these weird, hyper-local bands of moisture that the big models in Albany or Buffalo completely miss.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil and other local experts have been watching this "dry slot" phenomenon lately. Sometimes, a storm will be hammered into the Finger Lakes, but Liverpool stays in a weirdly clear pocket. Other times, like we saw yesterday, a localized band pivots right over Onondaga County and dumps three inches in an hour while the Syracuse airport stays bone dry.
The Polar Vortex and the 2026 Shift
Looking further into the month, things get a bit dicey. Around January 20, the high is only expected to hit 12°F with a low of 7°F. We’re seeing a shift in the Polar Vortex that usually sends a surge of Arctic air right down the I-81 corridor. If you’ve been procrastinating on checking your tire pressure or getting the salt bags for the driveway, do it now.
The NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center are currently tracking a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. What does that mean for your Saturday plans? It means the jet stream is shifting. While the first half of January was actually about 6°F warmer than last year on average, the second half of the month is projected to be much more "traditional"—which is a polite way of saying "uncomfortably cold."
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What You Should Actually Do
Don't just look at the high and low numbers. In Liverpool, the wind direction is everything.
- West Winds: These are the snow-makers. If the forecast says wind from the west at 15+ mph, expect lake effect squalls.
- South Winds: This is your "break." You’ll get that 38°F day on Saturday because the wind is shifting southwest.
- The "Feel Like" Factor: On Monday, January 19, the high is 24°F, but the wind will be kicking at 17 mph. You’re going to want the heavy parka, not the light puffer.
Take advantage of the "warm" 38°F on Saturday to clear out any ice dams or slush from your gutters. By next Tuesday, that stuff is going to be frozen solid when the mercury hits 12°F. Honestly, just keep a pair of dry boots in the trunk of your car. You've lived here long enough to know that "partly sunny" in the morning can turn into a "pull over because I can't see the hood of my car" afternoon by 3:00 PM.
Stay warm, keep the de-icer handy, and maybe just accept that the sky is going to be various shades of "Central New York Gray" for the next few weeks.