If you've ever spent a winter morning in the Musconetcong Valley, you know that the "official" forecast for Morris County usually doesn't mean much once you start descending Schooley's Mountain. Long Valley is a geographic quirk. It’s a literal basin that traps cold air and moisture in ways that leave surrounding towns like Chester or Hackettstown looking like they’re in a different climate zone.
Honestly, checking the long valley nj weather hourly is basically a survival skill if you’re commuting down East Mill Road or planning a hike at Columbia Trail.
Why the Hourly Forecast is Actually a Wild Guess
The biggest mistake people make is looking at a generic "North Jersey" forecast and assuming it applies to the valley floor. It doesn't. Because of the local topography, Long Valley experiences significant cold-air drainage. On a clear night, cold air slides off the ridges and pools in the valley, often making the actual temperature 5 to 10 degrees colder than what you’ll see on a standard weather app.
Right now, as of Saturday, January 17, 2026, the current conditions in Washington Township show a temperature of 25°F, though it feels like 19°F due to a light 4 mph wind from the south. The humidity is sitting at 55%, and the sky is a solid blanket of clouds.
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If you’re looking at the day ahead, here is the reality:
- Morning: Expect snow to be the primary player. There is a 70% chance of precipitation during the daytime hours.
- Afternoon: The high is only hitting 33°F, which is right on that razor-thin edge of freezing. This means the snow might get heavy or wet before tapering off.
- Evening: Things calm down slightly. The chance of snow drops to 25% tonight, with a low of 27°F.
- Wind: Expect a bit of a shift as the day progresses, with winds moving to the southwest at about 10 mph.
The Schooley’s Mountain Factor
You’ve probably seen it: it’s raining in the center of town by the Brew Pub, but as soon as you hit the top of the mountain toward Naughright Road, it’s a full-blown whiteout. That elevation change of a few hundred feet is everything.
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In January, Long Valley typically sees highs around 36°F and lows near 20°F, but those averages hide the volatility. We get about 7 days of measurable precipitation in January, and while rain is actually more common than pure snow over the long haul, the "snow alone" window usually peaks right about now—late January into early February.
What to Watch for on the Hourly Today
When you’re tracking the long valley nj weather hourly today, pay attention to the humidity and wind direction. That southwest wind at 10 mph is going to bring in slightly "warmer" air (if you can call 33 degrees warm), which is why the snow is expected to transition into more of a cloudy, overcast situation by tonight.
One thing local experts—and by experts, I mean the people who have lived here for forty years—will tell you: don't trust the "clear" forecast if the humidity is high and the sun is setting. That valley mist can turn into black ice on the bridge over the South Branch faster than you can find your ice scraper.
Driving and Gear Tips for Today
- Check the Bridges: The South Branch of the Raritan runs right through the heart of the valley. Those bridges freeze first.
- Layer for 20 Degrees: Even if the high is 33, the "feels like" temperature is going to stay in the teens or low twenties because of the damp valley air.
- Wipers Up: With a 70% chance of snow today, just flip them up now.
Long Valley is beautiful, but the weather is temperamental. It’s a place where the clouds like to hang out and the frost likes to stay late. Keep an eye on the barometer—currently at 29.77 in—as that will tell you if this evening's snow showers are going to be more than just a dusting.
Stay warm, drive slow on the mountain, and keep checking those hourly updates before you head out.