You've spent the last four months staring at your roster, wondering if the Green Bay Packers actually know something you don't. Or maybe you're a Packers fan, clutching your 2025 first-round jersey and trying to justify why the guy with the 4.29 speed has barely touched the ball. It’s the age-old fantasy and reality dilemma. Matthew Golden: should I keep him? The short answer is usually "yes," but the "why" is where it gets messy.
Honestly, Golden's rookie season was a bit of a ghost act. When Green Bay broke their decades-long streak of avoiding first-round wideouts to take him 23rd overall out of Texas, the hype was nuclear. We saw the highlight reel from his time in Austin—the 162 yards against Georgia, the clutch catches in the Peach Bowl. We saw the sub-4.3 dash. Then the season started, and he basically turned into a cardio specialist for 14 weeks.
The Reality of the Rookie Wall in Green Bay
The stats from his 2025 campaign aren't exactly going to get him into Canton anytime soon. 29 catches for 361 yards. Zero touchdowns in the regular season. If you drafted him in the second round of your dynasty rookie draft, you’re probably feeling a little nauseous. But there’s a massive "but" here that most people are overlooking.
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Matt LaFleur’s offense is notoriously dense. It’s a lot of "illusion of complexity," and for a rookie who spent his college years in air-raid or simplified pro-style systems, the learning curve is more like a vertical cliff.
He missed three or four games with nagging injuries. When he was on the field, he was often the fifth option behind Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft. It’s a crowded kitchen. However, if you watched the film—really watched it—you saw a guy getting open. Jordan Love just wasn't looking his way, or they were slightly out of sync on those deep shots that made Golden famous at Texas.
Then came the playoff game against the Bears.
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Four catches, 84 yards, and his first professional touchdown. It was like a light switch flipped. He looked faster than everyone on the field, finally using that track speed to separate at the top of his routes. That single game is the reason your "sell" button should be disabled for at least another six months.
Why the 2026 Outlook Actually Looks Better
There is a very real chance the Packers' WR room looks completely different by the time training camp 2026 rolls around. Romeo Doubs is hitting free agency. While Doubs has been a steady hand, the Packers rarely overpay for "good but not great" when they have a first-round investment waiting in the wings.
If Doubs walks, Golden steps into that "X" or "Z" role full-time.
- The Speed Factor: You can't teach 4.29. Even if he hasn't fully mastered the nuance of NFL press-man coverage yet, the sheer gravity he pulls on a defense creates space for Reed in the slot.
- The Post-Season Spark: That breakout against Chicago wasn't a fluke. It was the result of a full season of practice finally manifesting.
- The Draft Capital: Teams don't give up on 1st-round receivers after one quiet year unless they have character issues. Golden by all accounts is a "blue-collar" worker, according to Steve Sarkisian.
If you’re in a dynasty league, you have to remember the "Year 2 or Year 3 Jump." Look at guys like Nico Collins or even Davante Adams early in his career. They didn't just explode out of the gate. They simmered.
When Should You Actually Move On?
Look, I'm not saying he's a guaranteed All-Pro. There are red flags. His yards per route run (YPRR) was among the lowest for first-rounders in the last five years. He struggles when physical corners get their hands on him at the line of scrimmage. If you can flip him right now for a proven veteran like a Deebo Samuel type because a league mate is obsessed with "youth and upside," then sure, pull the trigger.
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But if you’re getting offers for a 2027 second-rounder or some bench-warmer RB, just stop. You are selling at the literal bottom of his value.
The consensus on Reddit and among fantasy analysts is currently "low." That is exactly when you hold. Steve Smith Sr. is still high on him. The Packers' coaching staff is still talking about his "untapped ceiling."
Basically, the environment in Green Bay is volatile. Christian Watson can't stay healthy. Doubs might be gone. That leaves a massive vacuum of targets that Golden is uniquely qualified to fill.
Actionable Next Steps for Managers
- Check the Doubs News: Keep a close eye on the free agency wire. If Romeo Doubs signs elsewhere, Matthew Golden’s trade value doubles overnight. That is your window to either commit to him as a starter or sell high.
- Ignore the Regular Season Totals: Focus on the target share in the final three games of the season. His route participation jumped to nearly 80%. That’s the metric that matters for 2026.
- Hold Through the Draft: Don't panic if the Packers draft another mid-round receiver. They need depth. Unless they take another WR in the first round (which would be insane), Golden's job is secure.
- Watch the Preseason Usage: If he's playing deep into the fourth quarter of preseason games in August, then you can start worrying. If he's a "healthy scratch" for the preseason (meaning he's a locked-in starter), you’ve won.
The kid is 22 years old. He's younger than some of the guys coming out in this year's draft class. Give him the summer to actually digest the playbook without the pressure of a weekly game plan. You’ve already endured the worst of the "rookie slog"—it would be a massive mistake to let someone else reap the rewards of the Year 2 breakout.
Summary of Verdict: Keep him. The talent is too high, and the potential opportunity in 2026 is too great to dump him for pennies.