Basketball is a game of runs, but nobody expected the Memphis Grizzlies to have this kind of run against the Milwaukee Bucks. Honestly, if you looked at the rosters on paper over the last few years, you'd probably bet your house on Giannis Antetokounmpo. But the reality is much stranger. Memphis has developed this bizarre, almost psychological edge over Milwaukee, winning eight straight matchups—all of them by double digits.
The most recent beatdown happened just after Christmas, a 125-104 Grizzlies victory at FedExForum. It wasn't even as close as the score looked.
The Dec. 26 Reality Check
Ja Morant came back from a four-game ankle injury and looked like he hadn't missed a second. He dropped 17 points and 10 assists, playing with that typical "I'm the fastest person on earth" energy. But it was Jaren Jackson Jr. who really broke the Bucks. He had 24 points, nine boards, and five blocks.
Five blocks.
In a league that is moving toward small ball and perimeter shooting, Jackson's ability to just erase shots at the rim is becoming the Grizzlies' greatest weapon. Milwaukee looked lost without Giannis, who was sidelined with a calf strain. When the Greek Freak isn't there to demand three defenders in the paint, the Bucks' offense tends to settle for contested jumpers. AJ Green hit six triples to keep them alive for a bit, but you can't live on AJ Green heaters forever.
The Bucks are in a weird spot. They’re 12-19 and sitting below .500. For a team that traded for Damian Lillard to win "now," the "now" is looking pretty bleak. Lillard himself has been in and out of the lineup with various "dead money" cap hits and trade rumors swirling around the aging core.
Why Memphis Owns the Head-to-Head
You’ve gotta wonder what Doc Rivers is thinking when he sees Memphis on the schedule. Since 2024, the Grizzlies have played the Bucks like they’re a JV squad. It doesn't matter if it's a "SEGABABA" (second game of a back-to-back) or a fresh start; Memphis finds a way.
Back in February 2024, a depleted Grizzlies team—the one that was basically an oversized G-League roster—beat a healthy Bucks team 113-110 right before the All-Star break. That was the "RennaiZance" game where Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson showed they were legit.
Roster Shifts and the "New" Bucks
Milwaukee’s roster doesn't look like the 2021 championship team anymore.
- Khris Middleton: Gone.
- Brook Lopez: Gone.
- Damian Lillard: His contract is massive, but his availability is a question mark.
- The Bench: They’re relying on guys like Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner (who they brought in to try and salvage the defense).
Kuzma has been fine—he’s averaging around 15 a game—but he’s not the secondary creator Giannis needs. Myles Turner was supposed to provide the spacing Brook Lopez once did, but he struggled in the December game, shooting just 2-of-11.
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On the flip side, Memphis is getting contributions from everywhere. Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer have been revelations. Spencer, specifically, has this "annoying-to-guard" energy that reminds people of a young Grayson Allen, minus the tripping incidents. He had 19 points in the last win and basically outplayed Milwaukee's veteran backcourt.
Can Milwaukee Fix This?
The narrative is always "wait until Giannis is healthy." Sure. That works until he’s 31 and dealing with recurring calf and groin strains. The Bucks have lost four of their last five games as of mid-January 2026. They are 17-21-1 against the spread, which means Vegas is still overvaluing them based on their name.
Memphis is 15-16, hovering near .500 but feeling much more dangerous. They have one of the youngest supporting casts in the Western Conference. If Zach Edey stays healthy and Jaren Jackson Jr. continues this Defensive Player of the Year trajectory, the Grizzlies aren't just a "fun young team" anymore. They’re a problem.
There is legitimate trade talk surrounding Jaren Jackson Jr. though. Some analysts think Memphis might sell high to rebuild around Morant and Edey. If a team like Boston offers a haul, would the Grizzlies move the guy who has been the Bucks' kryptonite? It feels unlikely given how much he anchors their identity, but in today's NBA, everyone has a price.
What to Watch for Next Time
If you're betting on this matchup or just watching for the vibes, keep an eye on the pace. Memphis plays fast—103.8 possessions per game. Milwaukee wants to slow it down to 99.1. When the Grizzlies get into the open floor, the older Bucks legs simply can't keep up.
Watch these specific factors:
- The Second Quarter: Memphis has been destroying teams in the second frame. They outscored Milwaukee 35-15 in the second quarter of their last meeting.
- Paint Points: If Myles Turner can't pull Jaren Jackson Jr. out of the paint, the Bucks' guards will keep getting their shots swatted into the third row.
- The "Giannis Factor": Obviously. But even with him, the Bucks are only 2-11 when they allow opponents to shoot over 50%. Memphis shot 53% in their last win.
Actionable Takeaways for Fans
If you're looking to capitalize on this rivalry, stop betting on the Bucks as favorites until they prove they can handle the Memphis speed.
- Look for the "Under" on Bucks total points: They’ve hit the team total under in 17 of their last 24 games. Their offense is stagnant.
- Monitor the Injury Report: Giannis’s calf is the most important body part in Wisconsin. If he’s out, the spread usually doesn't shift enough to compensate for his 28 points per game.
- Watch Jaren Jackson Jr. Blocks: Taking the "over" on his defensive props is basically free money when he faces a Bucks team that lacks a true backup rim-runner.
The Memphis Grizzlies vs Milwaukee Bucks matchup isn't a rivalry in the traditional sense, but it’s a fascinating case study in how a younger, faster team can systematically dismantle an aging giant. Until Milwaukee finds a way to defend the perimeter without sacrificing the paint, the Grizzlies will continue to have their number.
Keep an eye on the late-January trade deadline. If Milwaukee doesn't make a move for a wing defender who can actually run, their season—and their streak against Memphis—is going to keep sliding in the wrong direction. Check the local broadcast schedules on FanDuel Sports Network to see the next clash.