Honestly, if you've lived in the Mid-South for more than a week, you know the local mantra: "If you don't like the weather, just wait five minutes." It sounds like a cliché your grandpa would say while leaning against a pickup truck, but in Memphis, it’s basically the law of the land.
The current weather forecast Memphis tn is a perfect example of this chaotic energy. Right now, we’re looking at a crisp, sunny Thursday with a high of 39°F and a low dipping down to 28°F tonight. It’s the kind of cold that bites at your ears if you’re standing out on Beale Street too long. But look at tomorrow—Friday, January 16—and suddenly the thermometer jumps to 50°F.
That’s an 11-degree swing in twenty-four hours. Typical Memphis.
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Why Memphis Weather is a Sinus Nightmare
Most people moving here from up north or out west are stunned by the volatility. They expect the South to be "warm," but Memphis is actually a humid subtropical climate that gets bullied by two different neighborhoods. We’ve got the moisture-heavy air pushing up from the Gulf of Mexico and the dry, cold air screaming down from the Great Plains.
When those two meet over the Mississippi River? Chaos.
The humidity is the real kicker. Even in January, the average relative humidity sits around 85%. That’s why a 38°F day in Memphis feels significantly more miserable than a 30°F day in a dry place like Denver. The dampness just seeps into your bones. It’s also why local Reddit threads are constantly advising newcomers to buy a humidifier for the winter and a dehumidifier for the summer. Your sinuses won't know what hit them otherwise.
The 7-Day Outlook: Rollercoasters and Rain
If you're planning your week, don't get too comfortable with that Friday "warm-up." By Saturday, we’re crashing back down to a high of 37°F with a low of 20°F.
Here is the breakdown of what to expect over the next few days:
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- Thursday (Today): Sunny and cold. High of 39°F. Wind is coming from the northwest at 8 mph.
- Friday: Partly sunny. High of 50°F. This is the outlier. Enjoy the "warmth" while it lasts because the southwest wind at 12 mph is bringing a 10% chance of rain during the day and snow at night.
- The Deep Freeze (Saturday-Tuesday): We’re entering a stretch where the lows hit a consistent 20°F. Highs will struggle to get past 35°F or 36°F.
- The Next Shift: By Wednesday, January 21, the temperature climbs back to 44°F with a 20% chance of light rain.
What Most People Get Wrong About "Memphis Snow"
There’s a running joke that if a single snowflake is spotted over the Hernando de Soto Bridge, every grocery store in Shelby County will be sold out of milk and bread within three hours. It’s funny because it’s true.
But there’s a reason for the panic. Memphis doesn't really do "snow" in the traditional sense; we do ice. Because of our location, we often get a "wintry mix"—that annoying slush that freezes into a solid sheet of black ice overnight. Since the city doesn't have a massive fleet of snowplows like Chicago, the roads become a literal ice rink.
When the weather forecast Memphis tn calls for a 10% or 20% chance of snow, like we see for Friday and Saturday, locals know that doesn't mean a winter wonderland. It usually means "stay off the I-240 loop if you value your bumper."
How to Actually Prepare
If you’re looking at this forecast and wondering how to handle the next week, forget the heavy parkas you'd wear in the Arctic. You need layers.
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Layering is survival. You’ll start your morning in a heavy coat, shed it for a light jacket by 2:00 PM, and be back in the heavy coat by sunset at 5:11 PM. Also, check your tire pressure. These sudden drops from 50°F to 20°F will trigger your "low tire" light faster than you can say "Graceland."
Lastly, take the local advice on "dripping the taps." When those lows hit 20°F on Saturday and Sunday nights, let your faucets drip and open the cabinet doors under your sinks. Memphis pipes aren't always buried as deep as they are in the North, and a burst pipe is a hell of a way to spend a Sunday.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your tires today. The drop to 28°F tonight will likely affect your PSI.
- Prep your "Drip List." Locate the faucets on exterior walls to prepare for the 20°F lows starting Saturday.
- Plan for Friday rain/snow. If you have a commute, keep an eye on that 10% precipitation chance for Friday night, as it could create slick spots for the Saturday morning drive.