If you’ve spent any time in the 94025, you know the vibe. One minute you’re walking near Santa Cruz Avenue in a light sweater, and the next, a chilly breeze rolls off the Bay, making you wish you’d grabbed that North Face jacket. People think Northern California is just "perpetual sunshine," but the Menlo Park weather forecast is actually a fickle beast.
Honestly, it’s all about the microclimates.
Right now, as we hit the middle of January 2026, we are seeing a classic split in the Peninsula’s atmosphere. After that soaking atmospheric river that dumped over 4 inches of rain in the first week of the year—specifically that heavy 1.32-inch downpour on January 4th—things have finally dried out.
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The Current 10-Day Outlook: What to Actually Expect
Today, Wednesday, January 14, is basically a Chamber of Commerce day. We’re looking at a high of 62°F with nothing but sun. It’s crisp. It’s clear. But don't let the afternoon sun fool you into staying out late without a layer; it’s going to drop to 42°F tonight.
Here is the raw breakdown of the next few days:
- Thursday, Jan 15: The peak of the week. Expect a high of 66°F. It’ll be the warmest day for a while, perfect for a long lunch at Dutch Goose.
- Friday, Jan 16: Still sunny, but we dip back to 63°F.
- The Weekend (Jan 17-18): Saturday brings some cloud cover. There’s a tiny 10% chance of rain, but it’s mostly just "gray-skies-at-the-park" weather. Sunday clears back up with highs near 62°F.
The trend for the following week shows a slow, steady cooling. By January 22nd and 23rd, the highs will likely struggle to pass 56°F. It’s not freezing, but for us, that's "get the heater going" weather.
Why the Menlo Park Weather Forecast Is So Weird
Most people don't realize that Menlo Park sits in a geographic sweet spot. We are protected by the Santa Cruz Mountains to the west, which creates a "rain shadow." This is why it can be pouring in Half Moon Bay while we’re just seeing a few clouds.
However, we are also right on the edge of the San Francisco Bay.
Jan Null, a well-known meteorologist at Golden Gate Weather Services, has often spoken about how these Bay Area microclimates work. When the marine layer moves in, it doesn't just hit the whole Peninsula. It snakes through gaps in the hills. Menlo Park often stays warmer than South San Francisco but feels the "AC effect" of the Bay much sooner than, say, San Jose.
Rainfall Reality Check
We’ve already seen a wet start to 2026. Historically, January is one of our wettest months, averaging about 3.26 inches of rain. We’ve already surpassed that in just the first two weeks of this year thanks to those early January storms.
If you’re looking at the long-range models, the "warm sector" of the recent storm cycle has passed. We are moving into a stable, dry period. But don't get too comfortable. In this part of California, the "Miracle March" is a real thing—where we think the rainy season is over, and then we get hit with three weeks of solid rain.
Practical Tips for Surviving Menlo Park's Mood Swings
- The 3-Layer Rule: If you’re heading out for the day, you need a base, a light sweater, and a wind-resistant shell. The temperature can swing 20 degrees between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM.
- Humidity Matters: We’re seeing humidity levels around 63% to 70% this week. That makes a 50-degree morning feel much colder than it actually is.
- Watch the Dew Point: On nights like tonight where the dew point is sitting in the low 30s, expect frost on your windshield if you park outside.
Basically, the Menlo Park weather forecast is looking pretty stellar for the immediate future. We’ve paid our dues with the rain earlier this month. Now, we get a week of that classic, gold-tinted California winter sun.
Actionable Insight: If you have outdoor projects or need to wash the car, do it between now and Sunday. The stability in the atmosphere right now is rare for January, and the clear skies through next Tuesday provide the perfect window before the late-month cooling trend begins.