Honestly, if you looked at the meta platform stock price back in 2022 when it cratered below $100, you’d have thought Mark Zuckerberg was presiding over a slow-motion train wreck. Fast forward to early 2026, and the vibe is... different. But also kind of the same? We’re currently seeing shares hovering around the $630 to $650 range, and the market is acting like a nervous parent watching a kid juggle chainsaws.
On one hand, the money printer is screaming. On the other, the spending is—and I’m not exaggerating here—unprecedented in the history of corporate America.
We just saw a massive bombshell on January 14, 2026. Meta started laying off over 1,000 people from Reality Labs. That’s the "Metaverse" division that has basically been a $70 billion bonfire since 2020. They’re shutting down VR studios like Sanzaru Games and Armature. It feels like the end of an era, but it’s actually just a pivot. Zuckerberg isn't giving up on the future; he’s just realized that "the future" isn't a VR headset you wear while sitting on your couch. It’s AI.
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The Reality of the Meta Platform Stock Price Today
Wall Street is currently split into two very loud camps. You’ve got guys like Barton Crockett at Rosenblatt who just reiterated a "Buy" rating with a target of $1,117. That’s a 77% upside from where we are right now. Why? Because Meta’s core business—selling ads to the 3.5 billion people who use their apps every day—is actually getting more efficient thanks to AI.
But then you have the skeptics. They look at the Q3 2025 numbers and see a weird ghost in the machine. Revenue was up 26% to $51.2 billion, which is insane growth for a company this size. But net income "plunged" 83% to $2.7 billion.
Now, before you panic, that wasn't because they lost the money. It was a one-time $15.9 billion tax hit from the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." If you strip that out, they would’ve earned about $7.25 per share. The business itself is a fortress. The problem is what they're doing with all that cash.
The $100 Billion Elephant in the Room
Susan Li, Meta’s CFO, recently dropped a hint that sent a chill through the markets. She said capital expenditures in 2026 will be "notably larger" than in 2025. Considering they spent roughly $70 billion to $72 billion in 2025, we’re looking at a 2026 budget that likely clears **$100 billion**.
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Where is that money going?
- Gigawatt-sized data centers: They are building massive infrastructure across the U.S. to train the next generation of models.
- Llama 4 and "Avocado": Llama 4 had a bit of a shaky start with some delays, but rumors are swirling about a successor codenamed "Avocado" coming in early 2026.
- AI Wearables: Those Ray-Ban smart glasses are actually selling. It turns out people want AI they can wear, not a digital world they have to plug into.
- Poaching Talent: They are hiring AI researchers at "eye-popping" salary levels. We're talking millions of dollars for single engineers.
Is the "Magnificent 7" Era Over?
Lately, the meta platform stock price has been struggling to keep pace with the S&P 500. In 2025, Meta rose about 13%, while the broader market did 16%. For the first time in years, the "Mag 7" isn't a monolith. Nvidia is still soaring, but Meta is being treated more like a value stock with a very expensive hobby.
There’s also the political side. Meta just hired Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump advisor, as Vice Chairman. This is a clear signal that they’re trying to play nice with the administration to avoid being broken up. Remember, the FTC is still breathing down their neck about the Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions from a decade ago. If a judge orders a spinoff, the stock price would go into a tailspin—or, paradoxically, it might unlock value. Investors can't decide which.
What the Bulls and Bears Are Arguing About
The "Bulls" say Meta is the only company that has successfully monetized AI at scale. When you see a 30% jump in Instagram video views, that’s AI-driven recommendations. When an ad for a pair of boots actually looks like something you’d buy, that’s the Lattice model working. They argue that once the heavy infrastructure spending peaks, the free cash flow will be so massive it’ll make your head spin.
The "Bears" are worried about the "Metaverse" hangover. Sure, they're cutting 10% of Reality Labs, but they're still losing $4 billion a quarter on it. They worry that Zuckerberg is just chasing the next shiny object (AI) with the same reckless spending habits that led to the 2022 crash.
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What You Should Actually Do
If you’re looking at the meta platform stock price and wondering if it’s a buy, you have to ask yourself one question: Do you trust Zuck’s "Year of Efficiency" was a permanent change or just a temporary diet?
The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 21 to 29, depending on how you calculate the TTM (trailing twelve months) income with that tax charge. That’s actually cheaper than a lot of other big tech names. If they can show that the $100 billion AI investment is actually driving more ad revenue, the stock rerates higher. If it looks like another "Metaverse" money pit, we could see a repeat of the 2022 sell-off.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Watch the Q4 2025 Earnings Call: This is usually in late January or early February. Look specifically for the 2026 Capex (capital expenditure) guidance. If it's over $110 billion, expect the stock to be volatile.
- Monitor "Avocado" Development: If Meta releases a multimodal model that actually challenges GPT-5 or Gemini 2.0 Pro, the narrative shifts from "big spender" to "AI leader."
- Check the Legal Calendar: Several youth-safety trials are scheduled for 2026. These could lead to material losses or changes in how they operate in the EU and US.
- Evaluate Your Position Size: Given the extreme spending and regulatory risks, most analysts suggest keeping Meta as a "core" tech holding but not over-leveraging into it. It’s a high-conviction play, but the floor is lower than it looks.