Honestly, if you're looking at mexico news today business circles, the vibe is... tense. It is Thursday, January 15, 2026, and the honeymoon phase for President Claudia Sheinbaum’s "Plan México" is officially over. Everyone is staring at the calendar. Why? Because the July review of the USMCA is looming like a giant, neon question mark.
The World Bank just dropped a reality check. They slashed Mexico’s 2026 growth forecast to a measly 1.3%.
That’s not great.
We’re seeing a weird tug-of-war. On one side, you have the "nearshoring" dreamers who think Mexico is the next global factory floor. On the other, you have the pragmatists looking at the "Tariff Tsunami" that hit on January 1st. If you haven't been following the Diario Oficial de la Federación, here’s the gist: Mexico just hiked import duties on over 1,400 products from countries without free trade deals. We’re talking 35% to 50% jumps for steel, textiles, and aluminum.
It’s a bold move. It's meant to protect local industry, but for the maquiladoras (factories) that rely on Chinese or Korean components, it’s a massive headache.
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Why the USMCA Review is Haunting Mexico Business News Today
The elephant in the room has a name, and it’s Donald Trump.
Just yesterday, January 14, Ford CEO Jim Farley was at the Detroit Auto Show calling the USMCA "critical." Hours later, Trump called the whole agreement "irrelevant." You can imagine how that went down in the boardrooms of Monterrey and Querétaro.
Mexico’s business landscape is currently a "wait and see" game. The effective tariff rate for Mexican exports to the U.S. has already crept up toward 10.6%, a far cry from the 1.6% we saw back in 2024. If the USMCA gets shredded or heavily "rebalanced" this summer, the manufacturing heart of Mexico is going to feel it.
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- Manufacturing: Automotive and electronics are the biggest targets.
- Agribusiness: Mexico just opened an anti-dumping investigation into U.S. pork. It’s a classic trade-war jab.
- Investment: Capital flight slowed down late last year, but it hasn't stopped.
The Energy Crisis Nobody Wants to Fix
You can’t talk about business in Mexico without talking about Pemex. It is basically the world’s most indebted oil company. It owes over $100 billion.
The government is planning to throw $13 billion at Pemex this year just to cover its debt service. S&P Global Ratings is watching this like a hawk. If the government keeps bailing out Pemex and the CFE (the state electric company) without seeing results, Mexico's credit rating might get a nasty haircut.
There's a "smart decentralization" movement happening in solar energy, though. Since the national grid is basically maxed out, businesses are starting to install their own "Distributed Generation" systems—think solar panels + big batteries. By 2026, if you’re a factory in Mexico and you don’t have your own backup power, you’re basically gambling with your production schedule.
Plan México: Ambition vs. Reality
President Sheinbaum’s "Plan México" turned one year old two days ago. The goal is to make Mexico the world's 10th-largest economy by 2030.
But right now? The "growth light" is bright red.
The government wants 50% of all supply chains to be "Made in Mexico." That sounds patriotic, but ask any electronics manufacturer in Tijuana how hard it is to source high-end semiconductors locally. It’s almost impossible.
The silver lining? The "National Digital Window for Investments." It’s a one-stop-shop meant to cut through the legendary Mexican red tape. They want to reduce the time it takes to go from "we want to build a factory" to "we are building a factory" from 2.6 years down to one.
Actionable Steps for Navigating the 2026 Market
If you are actually doing business here or looking to invest, stop reading the hype and look at the data.
- Check your USMCA compliance immediately. With the July review coming, "Rule of Origin" documentation is no longer a suggestion; it’s a survival requirement. If your inputs aren't clearly North American, you’re going to get hit by the new tariff structures.
- Invest in energy storage. Do not rely on the CFE to keep the lights on during the summer peak. The PRODESEN 2025-2039 plan admits the grid is congested. Get BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems) on-site.
- Watch the minimum wage hikes. Sheinbaum is pushing a 13% increase in 2026. This is great for social equality but will squeeze margins for labor-intensive manufacturing.
- Hedge against the Peso. Analysts are eyeing an exchange rate of 18.0 to 18.5 per dollar by the end of the year. If you're dealing in USD, keep a close eye on Banxico’s interest rate cuts—they’re expected to drop toward 6.5%.
The narrative of Mexico being the "nearshoring winner" is still alive, but it’s no longer a sure thing. It's a grind. The companies winning right now are the ones diversifying their energy sources and tightening their legal documentation before the July trade negotiations turn into a slugfest.
The smart money is moving toward the Southeast, where new passenger trains and highways are finally connecting the region to the export hubs, but the North remains the undisputed heavyweight champion of industry—even if it's currently ducking some heavy tariff punches.