It was cold. Really cold. When the Miami Dolphins rolled into Lambeau Field for that Thanksgiving night game in 2024, the thermometer was barely clinging to the low 20s. You could see the breath of every lineman, a thick white mist hanging over the line of scrimmage like a ghost. For a team from South Beach, that kind of weather isn't just a "condition"—it’s a psychological hurdle. People love to talk about the "cold weather narrative" like it’s some myth, but honestly, watching the Dolphins struggle to find their footing while the Green Bay Packers looked perfectly at home told a different story.
Green Bay walked away with a 30-17 win that night. It wasn't just a loss for Miami; it was a reality check.
The Packers improved to 9-3, while the Dolphins slipped to 5-7, effectively snuffing out the momentum they’d built during a three-game winning streak. If you’re a fan of either team, you’ve probably argued about this game for a while. Was it just the temperature? Was it the muffed punt? Or is there a deeper talent gap when these two historic franchises collide?
The Thanksgiving Disaster: Miami vs Green Bay Explained
Let’s be real: games are often won or lost in the first five minutes. Miami deferred the toss, which felt like a safe move until Malik Washington muffed a punt at his own 9-yard line. You just can’t do that at Lambeau. Robert Rochell pounced on the ball, and suddenly Jordan Love had a short porch. Three plays later, he found Jayden Reed for a 3-yard score.
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That's the thing about this Miami vs Green Bay matchup—the Packers didn't just play better; they played smarter.
Jordan Love was surgical. He finished 21-of-28 for 274 yards and two touchdowns, both to Reed. He didn't look like a guy playing in a freezer; he looked like a guy playing in his backyard. His passer rating of 129.2 was actually his season high at the time. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa was forced into a volume-heavy game that Miami never wanted. He threw the ball 46 times. Sure, he racked up 365 yards and a couple of late touchdowns, but the game felt over by halftime when the score was 24-3.
The Packers’ defense, led by Quay Walker and Xavier McKinney, turned Miami’s offense into a one-dimensional shell. They took away the run completely. The Dolphins finished with a pathetic 39 rushing yards. Think about that. You have De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, two of the fastest backs in the league, and you can't even crack 40 yards? That’s where the game was lost.
Why the Weather Isn't an Excuse (But Sorta Is)
We have to talk about the "Big Freeze" factor. There's a stat floating around that the Dolphins have lost something like 10 straight games when the temperature is under 40 degrees. That’s not a coincidence; it’s a trend. In the Miami vs Green Bay rivalry, the venue matters more than almost any other game in the NFL.
When Green Bay goes to Miami, they sweat through their jerseys and lose their lungs in the humidity. When Miami goes to Wisconsin, their fingers get numb and the ball feels like a rock. Matt LaFleur, the Packers’ coach, leaned into this. He had his guys playing physical, "bully ball" football. Tucker Kraft was literally running people over. Josh Jacobs, despite a low rushing average of 2.3 yards, was a bruiser that wore down the Miami secondary.
- Total Yards: Green Bay 388, Miami 375
- Time of Possession: Miami actually held the ball for 33 minutes.
- The Difference: Red zone efficiency and turnovers.
Miami actually had a chance to make it a one-score game in the fourth quarter. They were sitting on the 1-yard line. A touchdown and a two-pointer would have made it 27-19. But the Packers’ defense stood tall. A run stuff, a batted pass, and then Quay Walker came screaming off the edge for a sack on fourth down. That was the dagger. It showed the difference between a team that "might" be a playoff contender and a team that is built for the post-season.
Looking at the History: Is This a Real Rivalry?
Historically, Miami actually leads the all-time series 11-10. But don't let that fool you. The momentum has shifted violently. The Packers have now won the last several meetings. Before this current Green Bay streak, Miami dominated for decades. In fact, the Packers didn’t even beat the Dolphins once between 1971 and 1994.
Imagine being a Packers fan in the 80s. You just assumed a game against Miami was an automatic "L." But the 2010s changed everything. Since that overtime thriller in 2010—which Miami actually won 23-20—it’s been almost all Green Bay.
The 2024 game was the first time these two met on Thanksgiving, and it felt like a passing of the torch in terms of "young elite QBs." Jordan Love is no longer just "the guy after Rodgers." He’s a legitimate MVP candidate. Tua is still fighting the narrative that he can’t win the big one or the "cold one." Honestly, it’s a bit unfair to Tua because he played okay, but the lack of a run game and the early special teams blunder put him in a hole no one could climb out of.
Key Takeaways for Future Matchups
If you’re betting on or analyzing a future Miami vs Green Bay game, you have to look at the trenches. Miami's offensive line was exposed in the cold. They missed 23 tackles in that Thanksgiving game. Twenty-three! That’s high school level tackling.
Green Bay’s strategy was simple: funnel everything inside. They knew Miami’s speed is most dangerous on the perimeter with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. By forcing the ball into the middle of the field and making Tua throw into tight windows with frozen fingers, they neutralized the most explosive offense in the league.
- Check the Forecast: If it’s below 40 degrees, lean Green Bay.
- Special Teams Matter: Miami’s struggles in the return game have a weird way of showing up in big games.
- The TE Factor: Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave are becoming massive problems for Miami’s defensive scheme, which often focuses too much on the deep threat.
What Happens Next?
The Dolphins have some soul-searching to do regarding their identity. They can’t just be a "track meet" team if they want to win a Super Bowl. You have to be able to win in places like Green Bay, Buffalo, and Kansas City in January. Mike McDaniel is a brilliant play-caller, but he might need to simplify things when the weather gets nasty.
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For Green Bay, the win was a statement. They proved they could handle a high-powered offense without getting into a shootout. Their defense is becoming the story of the season.
If you want to understand the current state of the NFL, look at that 2024 game. It wasn't just a holiday broadcast; it was a blueprint for how to dismantle a "finesse" team.
To keep track of how these teams evolve, start by looking at their upcoming draft priorities. Miami desperately needs depth on the offensive line to handle physical fronts. Green Bay just needs to keep their young core together. Watch the injury reports closely next season, especially for guys like Jordan Love and Tua, as their health completely dictates the ceiling for both of these franchises. Keep an eye on the defensive coordinator changes too; that’s where the real chess match lives.