If you’ve stepped outside in the Twin Cities over the last few days, you might be feeling a bit confused. It’s January 13, 2026. Yesterday, the mercury hit 43°F. Today, we’re looking at 41°F. Honestly, it feels more like a damp late-March afternoon than the middle of a Minnesota winter. People are walking around the Chain of Lakes with their jackets unzipped, and the snow depth at MSP has dwindled to a measly 3 inches.
But don't let the slush fool you. The minneapolis 30 day forecast shows that the "January Thaw" we’re currently enjoying is about to hit a brick wall.
Minnesota winters are famous for these mood swings. One week you’re worrying about ice dams; the next, you’re wondering if you should have scheduled a tee time. We are currently stuck in a very weird, very mild pocket of air, but the atmospheric signals—specifically a weakening La Niña—are pointing toward a much more chaotic February.
What the Minneapolis 30 Day Forecast Actually Says
Most people check their phone apps and see a string of 30-degree days and think the worst is over. That’s usually a mistake. Historically, the end of January and the first half of February represent the true "heart of winter" for us. According to data from the National Weather Service and long-range models like the CFSv2, we are entering a transition period.
The immediate outlook through the end of January suggests we’ll see a return to more seasonal averages. Think highs in the low 20s and lows dipping into the single digits. We’ve already seen record-breaking rainfall across the region on January 8 and 9—places like Caledonia and Winona saw over an inch of rain, which is wild for this time of year. This moisture is a precursor. As the temperatures drop back down toward the end of the month, that rain turns into the heavy, wet snow that breaks shovel handles.
👉 See also: Medium hair cuts with layers: Why Your Stylist Might Be Doing It Wrong
The La Niña Factor and the February Shift
We’ve been under a La Niña Advisory all winter. Typically, La Niña means "colder and wetter" for the Northern Plains. But this year’s version has been weak and, frankly, a bit of a letdown for snow lovers. The Climate Prediction Center recently noted a 75% chance of transitioning to "ENSO-neutral" conditions between now and March.
What does that mean for your commute?
Basically, as La Niña loses its grip, the jet stream tends to wobble. Instead of a steady flow of cold air, we get "surges." The minneapolis 30 day forecast indicates a high probability of a frigid snap during the last week of January, followed by a series of clashing air masses in early February. When warm air from the south hits that lingering arctic air over Minnesota, we get those 6-inch-plus snow events.
Why 2026 is Breaking the Rules
This year hasn't followed the standard script.
We started January with a bit of a chill, but the middle of the month has been freakishly warm.
Just look at the numbers:
- January 12: High of 43°F.
- January 13: High of 41°F.
- Historical Average High: 24°F.
We are nearly 20 degrees above normal right now. That is a massive anomaly. But if you look at the 60-day outlooks from sources like the Old Farmer’s Almanac and NOAA’s probabilistic maps, they both warn of a "correction."
The atmosphere likes balance. If we spend two weeks in the 40s in January, we usually pay for it with a brutal February. The current snow depth of 3 inches is pathetic for mid-January, but the models suggest we could easily triple that by the time Valentine’s Day rolls around.
✨ Don't miss: Finding Unique Guinea Pig Names Girl: Why Your Cavy Deserves More Than Just Ginger
Preparing for the "Second Winter"
If you're planning travel or outdoor events, you need to be looking at the window between January 28 and February 10. This is the "danger zone" in the current minneapolis 30 day forecast.
Snowstorms are favored to pick up in frequency during this time. While January has been dominated by "trace" amounts and drizzly rain, February is looking "wetter than normal" across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This doesn't always mean a blizzard, but it does mean more frequent "nuisance" snow—those 2-to-3-inch coatings that turn I-94 into a parking lot every Tuesday morning.
Survival Tips for the Next 30 Days
Don't pack away the heavy parkas yet. Seriously.
- Watch the Dew Points: When you see those 40-degree days, watch the humidity. High humidity in winter often leads to dense fog and "black ice" once the sun goes down and the temps drop back to 28°F.
- Ice Management: Since we’ve had so much rain and melting lately, your driveway likely has a layer of ice underneath the remaining slush. Chip it out now while it’s soft. Once the late-January freeze hits, that slush will turn into concrete.
- Vehicle Check: Your battery hates the "freeze-thaw" cycle. The constant expansion and contraction can kill an older battery. If yours is more than four years old, get it tested before the next sub-zero night.
The bottom line is that the minneapolis 30 day forecast is a tale of two halves. We are finishing January on a mild, somewhat soggy note, but the atmospheric debt is coming due. February is shaping up to be the month that actually feels like Minnesota.
Expect a return to the "Big Cold" by the first week of February, with significantly higher chances of accumulating snow compared to the dry, warm stretch we've just survived. Keep your scraper handy and maybe keep the salt bucket near the front door.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check your roof for ice dam potential this weekend while the temperatures are still above freezing. Clear your gutters of any leftover debris from the recent heavy rain to ensure that when the late-month snow starts melting, it has somewhere to go. Also, keep an eye on the January 25–28 window for the first major cold front of the new year.