Waking up in Missoula during January is usually a gamble. You roll over, rub your eyes, and pray you aren't looking at a "socked-in" valley where the clouds sit so low they're basically shaking hands with the Clark Fork River.
Honestly, the missoula mt weather forecast for this week is doing that weird thing it does where it feels like spring during the day and a deep freezer at night. As of early Friday morning, January 16, 2026, we’re sitting at 31°F. It’s mostly cloudy, and the air is thick with 84% humidity. That’s that "damp cold" that finds the gaps in your jacket and makes your bones ache.
Why the Valley Floor is a Liar
If you’ve lived here long enough, you know the "Missoula Grey" isn't just a vibe; it's a meteorological hostage situation. We get these inversions where warm air traps the cold, stagnant air right on top of our heads.
Today’s high is hitting 39°F, which is actually quite mild for mid-January, but don’t let the number fool you. With the wind coming out of the south at about 3 mph, it’s not exactly a gale, but it’ll keep that chill pinned to the pavement. Tonight, the sky is supposed to clear out, and that’s when the floor drops. We’re looking at a low of 20°F.
That 20-degree swing is why you see people at Orange Street Food Farm wearing parkas and flip-flops in the same checkout line.
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The Week Ahead: Sun, Then a Reality Check
The next few days look suspiciously nice. Saturday and Sunday are promising full-on sunny skies. Saturday’s high is 35°F and Sunday kicks up to 37°F.
- Monday: Partly sunny with a high of 35°F.
- Tuesday: This is where the missoula mt weather forecast gets messy. We’re looking at a mix of rain and snow with a high of 33°F.
- The Weekend Outlook: By the time we hit January 24, those "snow showers" are coming back with a 35% chance of precipitation.
It’s easy to get complacent when the sun hits the M on Mount Sentinel. You think, "Hey, maybe winter is over." It’s not. It’s never over in January. The National Weather Service in Missoula has been keeping an eye on a ridge of high pressure that's kept things stagnant lately, which is why the air quality has been feeling a bit... chewy.
What You Actually Need to Do
If you’re planning on heading up to Snowbowl or just walking the dog along the Kim Williams trail, you’ve gotta layer. The UV index is basically non-existent (level 1), so don’t worry about a sunburn, but do worry about the black ice that's going to form tonight when that 10% chance of snow melts and refreezes.
Check your tire pressure. These 20-degree drops in temperature make your "low tire" light pop on like a Christmas tree. Also, if you’re a local, keep an eye on the burn bans. When the air gets this stagnant and the humidity stays high, the valley just doesn't vent, and wood smoke becomes everyone's problem.
Basically, enjoy the sun while it lasts this weekend. Tuesday is going to be that grey, slushy mess that reminds us we still have two months of winter left.
Next Steps for Missoula Residents:
- Winterize the car: If you haven't checked your antifreeze levels, do it before Tuesday's moisture hits.
- Watch the sidewalks: Tonight's drop to 20°F after a damp day is a recipe for a bruised tailbone.
- Check Air Quality: With the stagnant high pressure, keep an eye on the Missoula City-County Health Department updates before heading out for a heavy run.